Prediction: Beal will sign in Boston in 2022

[td450]

Is maybe the best solution to have Jayson convince Beal to demand a trade to Boston just after the time signed free agents can be moved? Tatum can come back, tell Brad what is going to happen and Brad can make sure he re-signs Fournier so he can be used to send to Washington when Beal gets traded here.

Maybe Fournier, Thompson, Edwards and picks for Beal.

Fournier next to Westbrook isn't that bad.

C's get to keep Smart.

Smart/Pritchard
Beal/Langford
Brown/Nesmith
Tatum/Grant/Parker
Horford/Timelord/Moses

After the trade, Stevens can go sign a couple vets at the min. There is always a bargain or two of leftover vet min guys available during the season.

Is it a bit nefarious as plans go? Probably. Signing Fournier knowing you are going to trade him as soon as possible might make some agents very angry. But it's no less nefarious than what Lebron, Davis and Clutch Sports pulled off a couple years ago. This is the era we live in....star players  have the ability to create their own teams and narratives. If Tatum wants to play with Beal, but also Marcus and Jaylen, this is the type of thing he and his buddy Bradley could orchestrate to pull it off.

OK, that would be spectacular exchange for the C's, but that only can happen if Beal decides to play only for us and is willing to play cutthroat with Washington.

Golden State can make a really appealing case to Beal, and a better case to Washington

[Moranis]

I wonder if a 3 team trade with GS could be swung

Boston - Beal
Golden State - Smart, Thompson, G. Williams
Washington - Wiggins, Langford, 7, Bos 23 1st (lotto)

[bogg]

I wonder if a 3 team trade with GS could be swung

Boston - Beal
Golden State - Smart, Thompson, G. Williams
Washington - Wiggins, Langford, 7, Bos 23 1st (lotto)

If Golden State is providing the salary-matching and most of the value in a Beal trade, they're going to make sure they're the ones getting Beal.

[Walker Wiggle]

Here’s an honest question for the cap knowledgeable among us:

How much more expensive would Beal be if the Celtics signed him after trading for him, rather than sign him in free agency? And how much would a max contract be under each scenario? Given Beal’s years of experience I am guessing his next contract would be huge.

[Moranis]

I wonder if a 3 team trade with GS could be swung

Boston - Beal
Golden State - Smart, Thompson, G. Williams
Washington - Wiggins, Langford, 7, Bos 23 1st (lotto)

If Golden State is providing the salary-matching and most of the value in a Beal trade, they're going to make sure they're the ones getting Beal.

Maybe, maybe not.  They drop a ton of salary in that trade, which has huge value for them.  They take on Beal, they have basically no salary savings.  Now maybe they want to do that, but maybe not.  I also think Smart makes a lot more sense for them than Beal.  Obviously Beal is a much better player, but it isn't exactly like Golden State is lacking for scoring guards given they have Curry and Klay. 

[celticsclay]

Except that Langford, Nesmith and Robert Williams are the guys that matter for the long term. Horford, Fournier and G Williams do not. Keeping Fournier and obtaining Beal (or anyone other than a center or point guard that starts) effectively deletes any future on the team for Langford and/or Nesmith.

Robert Williams is either a top 10 center, or a dead weight. I have to believe there is a way to save him and find that out.

I think going for Beal is a mistake, but it is better to consolidate around youth and picks than it is to trade for him. I'd rather have Beal and Langford and Nesmith than Beal and Fournier.

Eh, Beal's 29 next summer. If you're going out and getting an almost-30 scoring guard you're doing everything you can to win a title in the following 3 years, and Nesmith/Langford will never be starters on a Jays/Beal iteration of the Cs. I definitely see the argument that Nesmith/Langford are more affordable bench help than Sixth Man Fournier would be, but not that they become foundational pieces.

The big thing a trade would do is allow you to keep one or two of the Smart/Fournier/Horford group of supporting veterans, all of whom would have a clear role on this theoretical contender.

I'm pretty certain Nesmith is going to be a quality starter somewhere, and Langford will be too if he can stay healthy. I don't see how tossing away that much talent in addition to what we include for a trade is an intelligent decision. Four years from now, Fournier will exiting his prime and Langford and Nesmith will be a year or two from even reaching theirs. Fournier isn't worth the difference.

4 years from now might not matter since both JB and JT might be gone. Neither of these guys right now project to be starters on championship teams, especially Langford. Langford is literally closer to being out of the league than he is to being a full time starter on a championship team.

Both those guys might be solid role players at some point but Cs can’t wait around for these guys to develop. They are on the clock with JB/JT and need to cash in. I don’t understand why people just assume JB and JT will be here their entire careers. It’s incredibly unlikely to happen.

Brown and Tatum will make their decisions when they go on the market. For Jaylen, that is 2024, for Tatum 2025. I'm not worried about either guy throwing a fit and demanding an early trade. Maybe you are.

We are talking quite specifically about whether it is better to roll through that with Fournier, or Nesmith and Langford and any assets we can push ahead by not trading for Beal, but rather signing him a year later. You are overstating your case. This is just about what will create the best outcome later, when it matters.

We don't actually know which would make more sense. A lot depends on how certain players develop, and what we could do by shedding Smart and Fournier now. What the caps are after next year. Could we nab a quality pick in the draft? These are all guesses.

My guess is that we can do better by not signing Fournier, and using Smart and less of those assets to get a possible quality starter in this draft, then try the free agent market next year. To me that is the most likely way to create the best situation possible in 2024 and 2025. If we have to shed a contract then, we will know more about the young guys and will know if its a good idea. We will know more about what we have then, and can make a better decision.

You should be worried about them leaving or forcing their way out. It’s happening everywhere in the NBA. Boston isn’t exactly a premier destination for players.

Right now, they know they have those guys under contract. Waiting/wasting a year of their contracts to me seems like you are playing with fire. They did the hard part draft/groom into All Stars/extend. Now they need to add pieces around them to keep them happy.

It is absolutely not happening everywhere. Its happening with a few guys, and its not that hard to tell who would be inclined to do it.

Giannis and Curry are pretty much the only franchise players where there haven't at least been overtures of movement over the last 5 to 10 years.  And you are starting to hear people talking about targeting Curry when is contract is up in a couple of years.

If we are just talking about demanding a trade (which I think was the point saying we don’t have to worry about Tatum or brown demanding a trade) the list is actually fairly long. Lebron has obviously never demanded a trade. Durant has not either. Embid hasn’t. Jokic hasn’t. I think the main guys to do it if the top 7 guys in the league were leonard, davis and harden. There is a lot more trade movement at the next level of star with butler, George, Westbrook, but I think those teams were not very upset to trade them (pacers probably were, but okc not on George). I guess the problem is maybe brown is a second tier star and would be more likely to do this, but he does really
Seem to love Boston.

Also I am wondering if the next cba may have some measures to reduce trade demands. Situations like with harden and davis were not very good for the league. Hopefully this would be some incentive and not just higher fines. I would like to see less situations where guys are just creating chaos with multiple years left on their deal.

[Irish Stew]

Yeah, if we could only get that third star, right?

Oh wait, didn't we have Kyrie and Hayward at one time? How'd that workout?

If Beal is a space shot like Kyrie, it won't work out.

If Beal destroys his ankle like Hayward, it won't work out.

Is the point that we should stop trying?

[ManUp]

After playing in Washington for 9 years, I don't see him leaving the Wizards high and dry with nothing. I think our best hope of getting him is if he demands a trade to Boston and having his agent say he won't resign elsewhere. It leaves us better off as far as roster building and the Wizards don't lose him for nothing.

We trade Horford/Timelord/Nesmith/Pritchard and 3 firsts for Beal. Wizards get Timelord as legit talent right now with upside, Nesmith a recent late lotto pick and Pritchard a solid young PG. This deal allows us to resign the free agents we don't trade (Smart & Thompson), and opens the possibility of getting Horford back in the off-season assuming the Wizards cut Horford for cap reasons.

If we wait to just sign Beal filling out the rest of the roster gets really tough after relinquishing the rights to our free-agents.

[gouki88]

Unlikely.  Just better to trade for him now.  Especially since to sign him you basically can't have Smart, Thompson, Fournier, Williams, Williams, Horford, and maybe Langford.

Much better to just acquire him centered on a package of Smart, Thompson, Langford, R. Williams, and future picks.  Then you get to save Horford,, Fournier, and G. Williams to actually build a real team.  You also can then give Beal more years and more money making it far less likely that he would actually leave.

Except that Langford, Nesmith and Robert Williams are the guys that matter for the long term. Horford, Fournier and G Williams do not. Keeping Fournier and obtaining Beal (or anyone other than a center or point guard that starts) effectively deletes any future on the team for Langford and/or Nesmith.

Robert Williams is either a top 10 center, or a dead weight. I have to believe there is a way to save him and find that out.

I think going for Beal is a mistake, but it is better to consolidate around youth and picks than it is to trade for him. I'd rather have Beal and Langford and Nesmith than Beal and Fournier.

In order to sign Beal outright, Robert Williams almost certainly would not be on the team and it is quite possible that Langford would also need to be gone.  There just isn't an easy way to make the room for Beal, with both Brown and Tatum on the team, without basically gutting the roster.  So, if you are basically gutting the team to sign him outright, Boston is just much better off trading for him this summer when it can use expiring contracts of Smart and Thompson as the money, a young player or two, and future draft picks.  Not only do you ensure you land Beal, you get him for an extra year of his prime, and you can save way more of the depth of the team to acquire him.  If by some chance he leaves next summer, well then you have basically max room to sign a different free agent if you let Horford go, but I suspect Beal would end up signing a 5 year max, taking him through his prime and hopefully encouraging both Tatum and Brown to stay past their existing contracts.

Beal, Fournier, Brown, Tatum, Horford is a superb starting 5 and there is some quality young players and depth on the bench in Pritchard, Langford or Nesmith, G. Williams, Parker, Brown, Edwards and then possibly Ojeleye and Kornet.  Even if you bring back the latter two, there are still 2 open roster spots to land some veteran minimum type players.  Maybe Love if he gets bought out (as an example). 

You don't put off till tomorrow what you can do today.

That starting 5 has zero interior defense and would get crushed by most playoff teams.

Brooklyn's healthy starting 5 had even less defence than that one and was smoking everyone until they got hurt

That is ridiculous, comparing that lineup to the Nets.   But glad you brought them up. The Nets to a man mentioned that they would not go into the paint when Rob Williams was healthy and protecting it.  Is Al Horford going to do that? 35 year old Al Horford?

What about the Suns? That starting 5 would crush most of the playoff teams in this playoff run.

Also, when? Source?

[Alec14]

Haven't we learned by now that Tatum and Brown don't work with another ball-dominant player? We should be taking that 35 million or whatever and investing it in multiple high quality role players like Crowder, Dragic, Poeltl, etc. 'Big Threes' work when they all have different but complementary skill sets. Bosh / Lebron / Dwade. Klay / Green / Curry. Allen / Pierce / Garnett. Three ball-dominant scorers and no bench? Good luck. Brooklyn's experiment only worked because Harden was able to lean more into his point guard/creator tendencies, setting up the other two (and they had Joe Harris, one of the top 2-3 3 point shooters in the league). Who does that of Beal / Tatum / Brown?   

[LilRip]

If Tatum keeps developing his playmaking, then maybe it could work. Tatum and Beal will likely have to take on the lion’s share of playmaking, especially down the stretch, so I hope they’re ready for it.

Can Brown really be a 3rd though?

[JBcat]

Haven't we learned by now that Tatum and Brown don't work with another ball-dominant player? We should be taking that 35 million or whatever and investing it in multiple high quality role players like Crowder, Dragic, Poeltl, etc. 'Big Threes' work when they all have different but complementary skill sets. Bosh / Lebron / Dwade. Klay / Green / Curry. Allen / Pierce / Garnett. Three ball-dominant scorers and no bench? Good luck. Brooklyn's experiment only worked because Harden was able to lean more into his point guard/creator tendencies, setting up the other two (and they had Joe Harris, one of the top 2-3 3 point shooters in the league). Who does that of Beal / Tatum / Brown?

When Hayward was around last year they had a pretty elite offense when you had 3 out of our top 4 scorers out there.  The year before was a little disjointed because Brown and Tatum weren’t what they are out now, Hayward was a shell of himself then, you had black holes in Rozier and Morris, and Irving in his own world.  Lol This season was also disjointed with Walker only his old self a handful of games, Tatum dealing with COVID for a while, and Brown going down with a season ending injury.

Now with Beal I don’t think he is a black hole.  He averaged 4.4 assists per game this season, and 6.1 and 5.5 the 2 previous seasons.  I remember his passing catching my eye last season.  He could have a Hayward like impact if he continues to be a willing passer.

I could see all 3 averaging around a total of 75 being secondary playmakers, and if you have the right players around them I think it could work.  For your Warriors reference you left out Durant which was really the big the 3 with Curry and Thompson. 

[Celtics4ever]

We trade Horford/Timelord/Nesmith/Pritchard and 3 firsts for Bea

Reading this I am really glad you're not our GM.

[Birdman]

I wonder if a 3 team trade with GS could be swung

Boston - Beal
Golden State - Smart, Thompson, G. Williams
Washington - Wiggins, Langford, 7, Bos 23 1st (lotto)

I believe all 3 teams would do this, probably give Washington a bit more

[Rosco917]

Haven't we learned by now that Tatum and Brown don't work with another ball-dominant player? We should be taking that 35 million or whatever and investing it in multiple high quality role players like Crowder, Dragic, Poeltl, etc. 'Big Threes' work when they all have different but complementary skill sets. Bosh / Lebron / Dwade. Klay / Green / Curry. Allen / Pierce / Garnett. Three ball-dominant scorers and no bench? Good luck. Brooklyn's experiment only worked because Harden was able to lean more into his point guard/creator tendencies, setting up the other two (and they had Joe Harris, one of the top 2-3 3 point shooters in the league). Who does that of Beal / Tatum / Brown?

I agree, a big three works when the players involved are mature, seasoned vets, who know how to play the game and are willing to buy into new rolls. The big three of Pierce, Garnett, and Allen wouldn't have worked in 2004.

But, why let reality get in the way of a video game mentality.