Mannix: Really Good Market for Smart; Brings Up McCollum Possibility

[gouki88]

Ya expiring Marcus Smart isnt bringing back the 7th pick. There's just no way.

Mannix is a fine reporter, writer ect. But he's pretty much never been right on rumors. This strikes me as more pure speculation than reporting.

But if you could get the 7-9th pick for Marcus you do that in a heart beat.

And why would we wanna do that? Trying to develop a player to become as good as Smart is right now?
That's rather counter-productive.

A list of 7-9th picks since the Smart-draft of 2014.

7: Mudiay, Jamal Murray, Markkanen, Carter Jr, Coby White, Kylian Hayes
8: Stanley Johnson, Chriss, Ntilikina, Sexton, Jaxson Hayes, Toppin
9: Kaminsky, Poeltl, Dennis Smith Jr, Knox, Hachimura, Avdija

With the exception of Jamal Murray (torn ACL, btw) I'm not even sure if anyone on that list is clearly better than Smart.

I don’t think you should look at getting a 7-9 pick from a flat historical range.

Not all drafts are equal, nor are team selections. I think you should view a 7th pick within a 7-14th lottery range if you are looking for a clear contextual view. When you go back, there is plenty of value within those parameters:

2015: 11 Turner, 13 Booker

2016: 7 Murray, 11 Sabonis

2017: 7 Markkanen, 13 Mitchell, 14 Adebayo

2018: 7 Carter Jr, 8 Sexton, 10 Mikal Bridges, 11 Gilgeous-Alexander, 12 Miles Bridges, 14 Porter Jr.

2019: 7 White, 10 Reddish, 12 Washington, 13 Herro

2020: 7 Hayes, 11 Vassell, 12 Haliburton, 13 Lewis Jr., 14 Nesmith

You just listed 22 players out of a possible 42, which is about a 50% hit rate.  And you included Nesmith, who is hardly what I would consider a "hit" at this point in time.  He may well prove to be one in time, but so far he isn't better the Smart was as a rookie.

The difference in financial cost may be worth that risk.

[Celtics2021]

Ya expiring Marcus Smart isnt bringing back the 7th pick. There's just no way.

Mannix is a fine reporter, writer ect. But he's pretty much never been right on rumors. This strikes me as more pure speculation than reporting.

But if you could get the 7-9th pick for Marcus you do that in a heart beat.

And why would we wanna do that? Trying to develop a player to become as good as Smart is right now?
That's rather counter-productive.

A list of 7-9th picks since the Smart-draft of 2014.

7: Mudiay, Jamal Murray, Markkanen, Carter Jr, Coby White, Kylian Hayes
8: Stanley Johnson, Chriss, Ntilikina, Sexton, Jaxson Hayes, Toppin
9: Kaminsky, Poeltl, Dennis Smith Jr, Knox, Hachimura, Avdija

With the exception of Jamal Murray (torn ACL, btw) I'm not even sure if anyone on that list is clearly better than Smart.

This is where I’m at as well.  About the only reason I’d be in favor of a deal is if the Celtics though that Davion Mitchell was ready to step into a starting role from the jump, and the $9ish million saved between those two players could be used to make up the difference in quality by adding someone else.  But you’d have to be really confident in your scouting to make that move.

[Muzzy66]

I don’t think the Celtics should do this, but I’d assume a Smart-McCollum deal would look like:
Smart / Thompson / Nesmith / lotto protected 1st for McCollum

I like McCollum as a player, but I don’t think he’s the guy you push a bunch of assets in for if it might cost you a chance at Beal down the line potentially.

Would Washington be interested in McCollum with Beal going to the C's.  Keeps  Washington competitive getting a similar player back for Beal.  If Beal is gone then it should be an easy swap.  See what you have and if not there will be a ton of takers for McCollum because he's signed for the next 3 years.

3 team deal

Boston gets Beal

Washington Gets McCollum

Portland gets Smart / Thompson / Nesmith / lotto protected 1st for McCollum

The other issue is now the C's are desperate for PG help unless you think Beal can play point.

We don't need a SG, we need a PG, something McCollum, in the absence of Lillard, has shown he can do.

Yeah, I have a lot more faith in McCollum as a PG than Smart

I'm certainly not the biggest Smart fan around here, but McCollum has averaged 5 assists per 36 only once in his entire NBA career (this season).  He has a career assist rate of 17.5% and turnover rate of 9.1%. 

Smart has a Career average of 401 assists per 36, a career assist rate of 20.2% and turnover rate of 14.2%.

I'm not sure there is a convincing argument to be made that McCollum is a better PG then Smart based on numbers alone.  Smart seems to be the better passer / playmaker, while McCollum is less turnover prone.  McCollum is a top shelf scorer but is a major liability on defence. Smart is a top shelf defender but can be a liability at times on offense.  I would probably say Smart is a better as an offensive player then McCoillum is as a defensive player.   The comparison could probably go in either direction to be fair in terms of who is actually more suited to the PG spot.

Given the choice - in a vacuum - I would choose McCollum because I personal feel that reducing turnovers is more important then generating an extra half assist or so.  Especially in big moments where a single unforced turnover can easily cost you the game.

That being said, I think we do need to also look at the rest of the roster makeup/  Tatum and Brown are solid (but not exceptional) defensive players.  Fournier (if we retain him) is probably average at best defensively.  He's not a positive impact defender, but not easily exploitable like a Kyrie or a Kemba.  Assuming we trade Smart and retain Fournier - would a McCollum / Fourner backcourt be too much of a defensive liability to be effective?  Or could the firepower that they provide make up for that weakness? 

McCollum is also going to make a LOT more money ($29M / year with 3 years still left) and he's 29 years old.  Smart is making less than half of that figure and is a couple of years younger.  I'm not sure the sacrifice to future financial flexibility is worth it unless it's bringing in a guy that makes Boston a legit title contender - I'm not sure if McCollum does that/

Call me crazy (and im sure many will) but I think trading Brown for Lillard (and movign forward with Lillard, Smart, Fournier, Tatum) might give a better team then giving up Smart and going forward with McCollum, Fournier, Brown. Tatum.  I just think the offense/defence balance is stronger in the first scenario, and I think the roles would be clearer with Lillard and Tatum being a clear #1 and #2.   Versus if McCollum comes here we might have another Kemba scneario because you have McCollum, Brown and Tatum of battling to try to prove they are the #1 guy. 

[Muzzy66]

Ya expiring Marcus Smart isnt bringing back the 7th pick. There's just no way.

Mannix is a fine reporter, writer ect. But he's pretty much never been right on rumors. This strikes me as more pure speculation than reporting.

But if you could get the 7-9th pick for Marcus you do that in a heart beat.

And why would we wanna do that? Trying to develop a player to become as good as Smart is right now?
That's rather counter-productive.

A list of 7-9th picks since the Smart-draft of 2014.

7: Mudiay, Jamal Murray, Markkanen, Carter Jr, Coby White, Kylian Hayes
8: Stanley Johnson, Chriss, Ntilikina, Sexton, Jaxson Hayes, Toppin
9: Kaminsky, Poeltl, Dennis Smith Jr, Knox, Hachimura, Avdija

With the exception of Jamal Murray (torn ACL, btw) I'm not even sure if anyone on that list is clearly better than Smart.

This is where I’m at as well.  About the only reason I’d be in favor of a deal is if the Celtics though that Davion Mitchell was ready to step into a starting role from the jump, and the $9ish million saved between those two players could be used to make up the difference in quality by adding someone else.  But you’d have to be really confident in your scouting to make that move.

And I'm a bit more uncertain of that with Brad being the president vs Ainge.  Ainge in the past 6 or 7 years has drafted Smart, Brown, Tatum, Pritchard, Timelord and Nesmith - all looking like very promising selections so far.  How much of that was Danny, I don't know.

[GreenEnvy]

Ya expiring Marcus Smart isnt bringing back the 7th pick. There's just no way.

Mannix is a fine reporter, writer ect. But he's pretty much never been right on rumors. This strikes me as more pure speculation than reporting.

But if you could get the 7-9th pick for Marcus you do that in a heart beat.

And why would we wanna do that? Trying to develop a player to become as good as Smart is right now?
That's rather counter-productive.

A list of 7-9th picks since the Smart-draft of 2014.

7: Mudiay, Jamal Murray, Markkanen, Carter Jr, Coby White, Kylian Hayes
8: Stanley Johnson, Chriss, Ntilikina, Sexton, Jaxson Hayes, Toppin
9: Kaminsky, Poeltl, Dennis Smith Jr, Knox, Hachimura, Avdija

With the exception of Jamal Murray (torn ACL, btw) I'm not even sure if anyone on that list is clearly better than Smart.

I don’t think you should look at getting a 7-9 pick from a flat historical range.

Not all drafts are equal, nor are team selections. I think you should view a 7th pick within a 7-14th lottery range if you are looking for a clear contextual view. When you go back, there is plenty of value within those parameters:

2015: 11 Turner, 13 Booker

2016: 7 Murray, 11 Sabonis

2017: 7 Markkanen, 13 Mitchell, 14 Adebayo

2018: 7 Carter Jr, 8 Sexton, 10 Mikal Bridges, 11 Gilgeous-Alexander, 12 Miles Bridges, 14 Porter Jr.

2019: 7 White, 10 Reddish, 12 Washington, 13 Herro

2020: 7 Hayes, 11 Vassell, 12 Haliburton, 13 Lewis Jr., 14 Nesmith

Not to hijack thread, but can we talk about 2018? Ayton, Doncic, Young, Sexton, Mikal Bridges, SGA, and MPJ are/could be stars in this league. Then you have guys like Bagley, Rob Williams, and JJJ who could conceivably put it together and join them. Wendel Carter and Mo Bamba have potential too.

Has the potential to be one of the deepest draft classes ever.

[pearljammer10]

I mean if you can move Smart in a package for CJ you don’t even think about it. You do it in a heartbeat.

Same with to the Warriors for pick 7. Then you cross your fingers and hope Scottie Barnes drops to number 7.

Either way if Mannix is right about Smarts trade value we should jump on it before other GMs realize what they’re getting into.

[Celtics2021]

I mean if you can move Smart in a package for CJ you don’t even think about it. You do it in a heartbeat.

Same with to the Warriors for pick 7. Then you cross your fingers and hope Scottie Barnes drops to number 7.

Either way if Mannix is right about Smarts trade value we should jump on it before other GMs realize what they’re getting into.

And what do you do when Barnes doesn’t fall to 7, as it seems rather unlikely he’s still there?  Also, are you willing to trade Smart and Thompson to take on two years and $65 million owed to Wiggins’ with #7?  The Warriors are way over the cap, so they’ve got to match salary, and they don’t have contracts that line up with Marcus.  A deal for #7 is not a no-brainer.

[td450]

I mean if you can move Smart in a package for CJ you don’t even think about it. You do it in a heartbeat.

Same with to the Warriors for pick 7. Then you cross your fingers and hope Scottie Barnes drops to number 7.

Either way if Mannix is right about Smarts trade value we should jump on it before other GMs realize what they’re getting into.

And what do you do when Barnes doesn’t fall to 7, as it seems rather unlikely he’s still there?  Also, are you willing to trade Smart and Thompson to take on two years and $65 million owed to Wiggins’ with #7?  The Warriors are way over the cap, so they’ve got to match salary, and they don’t have contracts that line up with Marcus.  A deal for #7 is not a no-brainer.

If I could convert Marcus Smart into Davion Mitchell, I'd do it.

[Irish Stew]

I don’t think the Celtics should do this, but I’d assume a Smart-McCollum deal would look like:
Smart / Thompson / Nesmith / lotto protected 1st for McCollum

I like McCollum as a player, but I don’t think he’s the guy you push a bunch of assets in for if it might cost you a chance at Beal down the line potentially.

Would Washington be interested in McCollum with Beal going to the C's.  Keeps  Washington competitive getting a similar player back for Beal.  If Beal is gone then it should be an easy swap.  See what you have and if not there will be a ton of takers for McCollum because he's signed for the next 3 years.

3 team deal

Boston gets Beal

Washington Gets McCollum

Portland gets Smart / Thompson / Nesmith / lotto protected 1st for McCollum

The other issue is now the C's are desperate for PG help unless you think Beal can play point.

Interesting 3-way. My hesitation is that, since McCollum will turn 30 before the season starts and Beal only just turned 28 a week ago, Washington may prefer the package we are sending to Portland. So, maybe, we just deal with them directly and we may have to "goose" the trade with one more prospect like Langford or another pick. People will scream that we're giving up too much and we don't have a starting point guard, but once you have your 3 stars, the heavy lifting is done. All you are looking for are NBA veterans who want to compete for a title to fill in the holes and provide depth.

[Who]

I mean if you can move Smart in a package for CJ you don’t even think about it. You do it in a heartbeat.

Same with to the Warriors for pick 7. Then you cross your fingers and hope Scottie Barnes drops to number 7.

Either way if Mannix is right about Smarts trade value we should jump on it before other GMs realize what they’re getting into.

Agreed on CJ package.

Disagree partially on draft pick package. I say you only do that trade if the player / prospect you want (who you value over Smart) is available at that pick. Otherwise, you hold onto Smart.

The sure-thing of Smart is more valuable than the uncertainty of what you get with the pick. However, if there is a player you really high on and believe in, then I am comfortable with the uncertainty of that player I believe in over Smart.

[keevsnick]

Ya expiring Marcus Smart isnt bringing back the 7th pick. There's just no way.

Mannix is a fine reporter, writer ect. But he's pretty much never been right on rumors. This strikes me as more pure speculation than reporting.

But if you could get the 7-9th pick for Marcus you do that in a heart beat.

And why would we wanna do that? Trying to develop a player to become as good as Smart is right now?
That's rather counter-productive.

A list of 7-9th picks since the Smart-draft of 2014.

7: Mudiay, Jamal Murray, Markkanen, Carter Jr, Coby White, Kylian Hayes
8: Stanley Johnson, Chriss, Ntilikina, Sexton, Jaxson Hayes, Toppin
9: Kaminsky, Poeltl, Dennis Smith Jr, Knox, Hachimura, Avdija

With the exception of Jamal Murray (torn ACL, btw) I'm not even sure if anyone on that list is clearly better than Smart.

Many reasons:

1) You get back a young player with more team control. Bare minimum of 5 (4 rookie + QO) years vs 1 for Marcus.

2) You could potentially take a shot at a higher upside young player, which has value considering this team needs a third star. Even if that pick isnt a star it becomes a potential chip for getting one. Its really actually very simple. WAS would prefer the 7th pick over Smart in a trade for Beal. POR would prefer the 7th pick over Smart in a Lillard Deal.

3) The draft pick makes around 4 million next year, as opposed to Smart at around 14 and potentially 17+ million after an extension. This makes it both easier to fill out the roster THIS year using the rest of the Hayward TPE and roster exceptions (Like the FULL MLE). It also makes it easier to get max room NEXT summer, whereas resgning Smart makes that dream impossible.

So ya, obvious move if you can make it. Dramatically increases your flexibility. The 7th-9th pick my or may not end up being as good a player as Smart, but right now the value to the Celtics is such that you'd have to do that deal.