Author Topic: Ainge on 98.5 FM’s The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich show, talk TPE  (Read 28845 times)

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Re: Ainge on 98.5 FM’s The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich show, talk TPE
« Reply #135 on: February 11, 2021, 10:19:05 AM »

Offline celts55

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So, does it make sense to sit Brown for a few weeks to recover? I don't really know much about tendonitis, but last thing they need is two guys with long term knee issues.

Re: Ainge on 98.5 FM’s The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich show, talk TPE
« Reply #136 on: February 11, 2021, 10:21:14 AM »

Offline Moranis

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If Jaylen is going to be limited for the near future dealing with nagging knee issues, this season is basically a lost cause already.

All around it's starting to feel like this just isn't meant to be a year in which the Celts seriously compete for anything, due entirely to things outside their control.
Did you really think Boston was going to seriously compete for the title this year?  I mean that honestly because I just never saw this team as a realistic contender if everything went 100% correct, and we know that never happens.
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Re: Ainge on 98.5 FM’s The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich show, talk TPE
« Reply #137 on: February 11, 2021, 10:23:10 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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Not sure this changes anything. I mean what exactly did people thing "knee soreness" was? Sounds like the kind of thing where he'll be day to day as they monitor it, wasn't even on the injury report yesterday.

Worst case scenario is it nags all year, but I'd think if it persists for a while they'd shut him down for a couple weeks to let it resolve, maybe give him an extra week or two coming out of the all star break. Now if THAT didn't work then we'd have a problem.


Re: Ainge on 98.5 FM’s The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich show, talk TPE
« Reply #138 on: February 11, 2021, 10:41:21 AM »

Offline RodyTur10

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If Jaylen is going to be limited for the near future dealing with nagging knee issues, this season is basically a lost cause already.

All around it's starting to feel like this just isn't meant to be a year in which the Celts seriously compete for anything, due entirely to things outside their control.
Did you really think Boston was going to seriously compete for the title this year?  I mean that honestly because I just never saw this team as a realistic contender if everything went 100% correct, and we know that never happens.

It was a bridge year from the beginning. The Celtics are like 8-12th best team in the league. Maybe you can make a good run in the playoffs, but you're not threatening the Lakers, Bucks, Clippers or Nets without some moves.
Those 4 teams are the contenders and possibly Jazz and 76ers as outsiders.

Staying out of the luxury tax, develop youth and look for a longterm use of the TPE should be our goals.
That's why it doesn't make sense to keep on playing Thompson, Teague, Ojeleye over Timelord and Nesmith, unless it's to showcase them for a trade.

Re: Ainge on 98.5 FM’s The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich show, talk TPE
« Reply #139 on: February 11, 2021, 10:49:42 AM »

Offline RJ87

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If Jaylen is going to be limited for the near future dealing with nagging knee issues, this season is basically a lost cause already.

All around it's starting to feel like this just isn't meant to be a year in which the Celts seriously compete for anything, due entirely to things outside their control.
Did you really think Boston was going to seriously compete for the title this year?  I mean that honestly because I just never saw this team as a realistic contender if everything went 100% correct, and we know that never happens.

I guess this is why I'm not experiencing the level of panic as other posters. This always felt like a middle of the pack team to me.
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Re: Ainge on 98.5 FM’s The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich show, talk TPE
« Reply #140 on: February 11, 2021, 11:24:28 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Re: Ainge on 98.5 FM’s The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich show, talk TPE
« Reply #141 on: February 11, 2021, 11:28:47 AM »

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If Jaylen is going to be limited for the near future dealing with nagging knee issues, this season is basically a lost cause already.

All around it's starting to feel like this just isn't meant to be a year in which the Celts seriously compete for anything, due entirely to things outside their control.
Did you really think Boston was going to seriously compete for the title this year?  I mean that honestly because I just never saw this team as a realistic contender if everything went 100% correct, and we know that never happens.

Well...  I think many thought that this team was a 2nd tier contender.  Not likely to win a title, but possibly make some noise --  make it to the ECF.  With moves and perhaps a surprise leap from unexpected players I think folks were able to do some wishful thinking.  There's not a whole lot wrong with wishful thinking, it is sports after all.

Re: Ainge on 98.5 FM’s The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich show, talk TPE
« Reply #142 on: February 11, 2021, 12:02:55 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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If Jaylen is going to be limited for the near future dealing with nagging knee issues, this season is basically a lost cause already.

All around it's starting to feel like this just isn't meant to be a year in which the Celts seriously compete for anything, due entirely to things outside their control.
Did you really think Boston was going to seriously compete for the title this year?  I mean that honestly because I just never saw this team as a realistic contender if everything went 100% correct, and we know that never happens.


I've said this in many places, but the Celts were a top 5 team on offense and defense last year, even with Hayward missing tons of time and not participating in the playoffs.  They got to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals and the main reason (in my judgment) that they were unable to advance is that their opponent was simply much better at executing in the fourth quarter.  It wasn't a matter of lacking talent. 

My hope was that this team could come back just as strong as they were in the playoffs (again, where Hayward was basically not a factor) and show gradual improvement in their execution through playing together over the course of the season.

So yes, I saw the Celts as a team with a shot at making a deep run to the Finals, but only if things broke in their favor.  I think that's how it is for most very good but not super great teams.
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Re: Ainge on 98.5 FM’s The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich show, talk TPE
« Reply #143 on: February 11, 2021, 02:06:44 PM »

Offline kraidstar

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If Jaylen is going to be limited for the near future dealing with nagging knee issues, this season is basically a lost cause already.

All around it's starting to feel like this just isn't meant to be a year in which the Celts seriously compete for anything, due entirely to things outside their control.
Did you really think Boston was going to seriously compete for the title this year?  I mean that honestly because I just never saw this team as a realistic contender if everything went 100% correct, and we know that never happens.


I've said this in many places, but the Celts were a top 5 team on offense and defense last year, even with Hayward missing tons of time and not participating in the playoffs.  They got to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals and the main reason (in my judgment) that they were unable to advance is that their opponent was simply much better at executing in the fourth quarter.  It wasn't a matter of lacking talent. 

My hope was that this team could come back just as strong as they were in the playoffs (again, where Hayward was basically not a factor) and show gradual improvement in their execution through playing together over the course of the season.

So yes, I saw the Celts as a team with a shot at making a deep run to the Finals, but only if things broke in their favor.  I think that's how it is for most very good but not super great teams.

Honestly people are badly underrating the talent level on this team right now. There is a reason we keep making the ECF. The Jays are really, really good. they are both elite two-way players, and having two of those guys is rare indeed. They can match baskets with anyone, but they need a functioning system around them.

The problem is the rest of the roster isn't capable of functioning efficiently right now. The impact of the Kemba injury and recovery cannot be overstated. When you have a guy missing 2-3 extra bunnies per game, that affects your point total in a very real way. And when he is struggling on the defensive end it leads to all sorts of issues as well.

The team hasn't had enough practice time or preseason to resolve some of these issues. That's not an excuse. It's a very real fact. The Utah Jazz have been playing with largely same roster for a few years now. Our guys are younger, and some of them badly need more reps.

The situation is the same with the passing game. The team needs more familiarity. Again looking at the Jazz, it took them years to be able to pass as crisply and confidently as they do now. Their guys know exactly where the others will be.

Our two best guys are at an age where, in the 80's or early 90's they would just have gotten out of college. And a lot of their teammates are even younger. Kemba's injury has really hurt our flow at both ends, And Teague's complete failure, along with the Smart injury, has also been crippling.

It is near-impossible to win without ball distributors. To be fair the Jays do need to be better at looking for their teammates. The court vision should come with time.

The good news is that here is a chance this turns around in a big way. Our young guys are getting reps out of necessity, and it is possible Kemba rebounds. Smart should return. The TPE remains a terrific asset. There is a lot of season left, and honestly the regular season is kind of a joke anyways. If things start to "click," then the sky is the limit. The talent is there.

We just need to get healthy and learn to play as a team. That's why the Heat beat us last year. They weren't more talented, but they were certainly smarter and more composed. Stevens needs to find a way to make it work. Ifthat can't happen, then trades and maybe a new coach will be required.

Re: Ainge on 98.5 FM’s The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich show, talk TPE
« Reply #144 on: February 11, 2021, 03:33:04 PM »

Offline Moranis

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If Jaylen is going to be limited for the near future dealing with nagging knee issues, this season is basically a lost cause already.

All around it's starting to feel like this just isn't meant to be a year in which the Celts seriously compete for anything, due entirely to things outside their control.
Did you really think Boston was going to seriously compete for the title this year?  I mean that honestly because I just never saw this team as a realistic contender if everything went 100% correct, and we know that never happens.


I've said this in many places, but the Celts were a top 5 team on offense and defense last year, even with Hayward missing tons of time and not participating in the playoffs.  They got to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals and the main reason (in my judgment) that they were unable to advance is that their opponent was simply much better at executing in the fourth quarter.  It wasn't a matter of lacking talent. 

My hope was that this team could come back just as strong as they were in the playoffs (again, where Hayward was basically not a factor) and show gradual improvement in their execution through playing together over the course of the season.

So yes, I saw the Celts as a team with a shot at making a deep run to the Finals, but only if things broke in their favor.  I think that's how it is for most very good but not super great teams.
I don't think Boston beats Toronto if those games are in Toronto.  History bears out just how infrequently Boston wins in Toronto and the teams were obviously pretty evenly matched.  So I think Miami, Milwaukee, and Toronto were all better teams in the east last year.  Miami is struggling this year, but I think they will still be as good as they were last year when the playoffs roll around.  Toronto is obviously not as good as they were, but are still in Boston's same general range (they are 1 game back).  Brooklyn is certainly better than Boston (at least from a playoff perspective if not regular season as well) and Philadelphia may very well be (they will clearly finish with a better record, though it is yet to be seen how good they will be in the playoffs).  So Boston is the 4th, 5th, or 6th best team in the East and was always going to be.  They certainly could end up with a better seed than that, as health plays a big part in regular season records (though Indiana could finish as a higher seed also). 

Teams that are consistent contenders quite simply have top end talent that is better than the C's have.  The C's have been a very good regular season team, but in the playoffs you just need the uber elite guys to have any real shot at winning championships.  Even the Bucks, who have the 2-time defending MVP, haven't even made the Finals, because the supporting cast around Giannis just hasn't been good enough and their supporting cast has been better and deeper than Boston's.  Top end talent wins and Boston quite simply doesn't have it.  Hopefully someday Tatum elevates into that class and Brown continues to improve so that he can be a sufficiently talented #2, but until that happens, Boston isn't a contender.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2021, 04:13:58 PM by Moranis »
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Re: Ainge on 98.5 FM’s The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich show, talk TPE
« Reply #145 on: February 11, 2021, 04:49:24 PM »

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If Jaylen is going to be limited for the near future dealing with nagging knee issues, this season is basically a lost cause already.

All around it's starting to feel like this just isn't meant to be a year in which the Celts seriously compete for anything, due entirely to things outside their control.
Did you really think Boston was going to seriously compete for the title this year?  I mean that honestly because I just never saw this team as a realistic contender if everything went 100% correct, and we know that never happens.


I've said this in many places, but the Celts were a top 5 team on offense and defense last year, even with Hayward missing tons of time and not participating in the playoffs.  They got to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals and the main reason (in my judgment) that they were unable to advance is that their opponent was simply much better at executing in the fourth quarter.  It wasn't a matter of lacking talent. 

My hope was that this team could come back just as strong as they were in the playoffs (again, where Hayward was basically not a factor) and show gradual improvement in their execution through playing together over the course of the season.

So yes, I saw the Celts as a team with a shot at making a deep run to the Finals, but only if things broke in their favor.  I think that's how it is for most very good but not super great teams.
I don't think Boston beats Toronto if those games are in Toronto.  History bears out just how infrequently Boston wins in Toronto and the teams were obviously pretty evenly matched.  So I think Miami, Milwaukee, and Toronto were all better teams in the east last year.  Miami is struggling this year, but I think they will still be as good as they were last year when the playoffs roll around.  Toronto is obviously not as good as they were, but are still in Boston's same general range (they are 1 game back).  Brooklyn is certainly better than Boston (at least from a playoff perspective if not regular season as well) and Philadelphia may very well be (they will clearly finish with a better record, though it is yet to be seen how good they will be in the playoffs).  So Boston is the 4th, 5th, or 6th best team in the East and was always going to be.  They certainly could end up with a better seed than that, as health plays a big part in regular season records (though Indiana could finish as a higher seed also). 

Teams that are consistent contenders quite simply have top end talent that is better than the C's have.  The C's have been a very good regular season team, but in the playoffs you just need the uber elite guys to have any real shot at winning championships.  Even the Bucks, who have the 2-time defending MVP, haven't even made the Finals, because the supporting cast around Giannis just hasn't been good enough and their supporting cast has been better and deeper than Boston's.  Top end talent wins and Boston quite simply doesn't have it.  Hopefully someday Tatum elevates into that class and Brown continues to improve so that he can be a sufficiently talented #2, but until that happens, Boston isn't a contender.
I don’t see how we don’t have top end talent ... we have two (very young) all stars and DPY type player. This should be more than enough as top end talent to compete. Now the rest of the roster is very suspect but a surprisingly healthy and spry Kemba can vault us

Re: Ainge on 98.5 FM’s The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich show, talk TPE
« Reply #146 on: February 11, 2021, 05:32:23 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I don't think Boston beats Toronto if those games are in Toronto.  History bears out just how infrequently Boston wins in Toronto and the teams were obviously pretty evenly matched.  So I think Miami, Milwaukee, and Toronto were all better teams in the east last year.  Miami is struggling this year, but I think they will still be as good as they were last year when the playoffs roll around.  Toronto is obviously not as good as they were, but are still in Boston's same general range (they are 1 game back).  Brooklyn is certainly better than Boston (at least from a playoff perspective if not regular season as well) and Philadelphia may very well be (they will clearly finish with a better record, though it is yet to be seen how good they will be in the playoffs).  So Boston is the 4th, 5th, or 6th best team in the East and was always going to be.  They certainly could end up with a better seed than that, as health plays a big part in regular season records (though Indiana could finish as a higher seed also). 

Teams that are consistent contenders quite simply have top end talent that is better than the C's have.  The C's have been a very good regular season team, but in the playoffs you just need the uber elite guys to have any real shot at winning championships.  Even the Bucks, who have the 2-time defending MVP, haven't even made the Finals, because the supporting cast around Giannis just hasn't been good enough and their supporting cast has been better and deeper than Boston's.  Top end talent wins and Boston quite simply doesn't have it.  Hopefully someday Tatum elevates into that class and Brown continues to improve so that he can be a sufficiently talented #2, but until that happens, Boston isn't a contender.


Two All-NBA caliber players is top end talent.  Any definition of top end talent that excludes Tatum and Brown, at this stage, is simply an obviously flawed definition.

You also completely skipped right past the point I made that the Celtics were a top 5 offense and defense last season.  That's another rock solid indicator of being an elite team.

You can spin alternate histories as much as you like -- I can't argue with you, because you're stating an opinion that isn't based in anything that can be proven or disproven.  I would just point out that I haven't seen you similarly discounting what other teams (like the Lakers or Heat) did in this most recent post-season on account of the neutral court.  For whatever reason you only apply that skepticism to the Celtics.


It's one thing to say the Celtics are not in the top tier of teams in the league -- what I would call the "title favorites."  I would agree with that.  They're not in the same category as the Lakers or Clippers.  They don't have the same level of talent at the top of the roster as the Bucks (based solely on Giannis), Sixers, or Nets.

It's entirely a different thing to say the Celts, heading into this season, could not reasonably be considered in the outer circle of dark horse title contenders.  That would include teams like Miami, Dallas, Denver, Utah, etc.  The Celtics absolutely earned that level of consideration and to say otherwise requires you to completely discount what the team has done the past few years, relying on opinion and gut-level instinct rather than any concrete pieces of evidence.


Look, I don't want to make this personal, but I feel like you have always been pessimistic about the Celtics, year after year.  My impression is that there's almost nothing the Celtics could do short of winning the title that would convince you to change your mind about them "not being good enough."  Even so, you've been proven wrong a lot of the time about how good they are and how far they can go.  So I would think that perhaps having been wrong about that would encourage some humility or doubt as to your own instincts on that sort of thing.  I've been a pessimist at times myself, and I'd like to think I've recognized when my priors about the players and the team as a whole have been shown to be too negative.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2021, 05:40:31 PM by PhoSita »
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Re: Ainge on 98.5 FM’s The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich show, talk TPE
« Reply #147 on: February 11, 2021, 09:34:11 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I don't think Boston beats Toronto if those games are in Toronto.  History bears out just how infrequently Boston wins in Toronto and the teams were obviously pretty evenly matched.  So I think Miami, Milwaukee, and Toronto were all better teams in the east last year.  Miami is struggling this year, but I think they will still be as good as they were last year when the playoffs roll around.  Toronto is obviously not as good as they were, but are still in Boston's same general range (they are 1 game back).  Brooklyn is certainly better than Boston (at least from a playoff perspective if not regular season as well) and Philadelphia may very well be (they will clearly finish with a better record, though it is yet to be seen how good they will be in the playoffs).  So Boston is the 4th, 5th, or 6th best team in the East and was always going to be.  They certainly could end up with a better seed than that, as health plays a big part in regular season records (though Indiana could finish as a higher seed also). 

Teams that are consistent contenders quite simply have top end talent that is better than the C's have.  The C's have been a very good regular season team, but in the playoffs you just need the uber elite guys to have any real shot at winning championships.  Even the Bucks, who have the 2-time defending MVP, haven't even made the Finals, because the supporting cast around Giannis just hasn't been good enough and their supporting cast has been better and deeper than Boston's.  Top end talent wins and Boston quite simply doesn't have it.  Hopefully someday Tatum elevates into that class and Brown continues to improve so that he can be a sufficiently talented #2, but until that happens, Boston isn't a contender.


Two All-NBA caliber players is top end talent.  Any definition of top end talent that excludes Tatum and Brown, at this stage, is simply an obviously flawed definition.

You also completely skipped right past the point I made that the Celtics were a top 5 offense and defense last season.  That's another rock solid indicator of being an elite team.

You can spin alternate histories as much as you like -- I can't argue with you, because you're stating an opinion that isn't based in anything that can be proven or disproven.  I would just point out that I haven't seen you similarly discounting what other teams (like the Lakers or Heat) did in this most recent post-season on account of the neutral court.  For whatever reason you only apply that skepticism to the Celtics.


It's one thing to say the Celtics are not in the top tier of teams in the league -- what I would call the "title favorites."  I would agree with that.  They're not in the same category as the Lakers or Clippers.  They don't have the same level of talent at the top of the roster as the Bucks (based solely on Giannis), Sixers, or Nets.

It's entirely a different thing to say the Celts, heading into this season, could not reasonably be considered in the outer circle of dark horse title contenders.  That would include teams like Miami, Dallas, Denver, Utah, etc.  The Celtics absolutely earned that level of consideration and to say otherwise requires you to completely discount what the team has done the past few years, relying on opinion and gut-level instinct rather than any concrete pieces of evidence.


Look, I don't want to make this personal, but I feel like you have always been pessimistic about the Celtics, year after year.  My impression is that there's almost nothing the Celtics could do short of winning the title that would convince you to change your mind about them "not being good enough."  Even so, you've been proven wrong a lot of the time about how good they are and how far they can go.  So I would think that perhaps having been wrong about that would encourage some humility or doubt as to your own instincts on that sort of thing.  I've been a pessimist at times myself, and I'd like to think I've recognized when my priors about the players and the team as a whole have been shown to be too negative.
But Boston doesn't actually have top end talent when looking at title winners and frankly title runner-ups most of the time.

Look at the last decade or so.

Lakers - 2 top 5 players
Raptors - top 5 player, 2 other all NBA caliber players, former dpoy
Warriors - 2 top 5 players, 2 other all NBA caliber players
Cavs - best player in league, 2 other all NBA players
Warriors - top 5 player (and 2 time MVP), 2 other all NBA players
Spurs - rising star, greatest PF ever, All NBA guard, HOF guard
Heat - best player in league, 2 other all nba player
Mavs - top 5 player, dpoy, HOF (old) guard
Lakers - top 5 player, 1 other all nba player
Celtics - top 5 player, 2 other all nba players

The Spurs are the only team that didn't have a top 5 player of the champions and they all basically had at least 1 other top 15 type player.  The Spurs though had the greatest PF in the history of the game (Duncan), a HOF guard in his prime (Parker), a HOF guard at the tail end of his prime (Manu), and a rising star (Leonard).  Duncan is what really sets them apart from Boston, and that is the closest comparison.  Now I get it those are the champions, but what about the runner-ups. 

Heat - Top 10 player, Rising Star
Warriors - 2 top 5 players, 2 other All NBA caliber players
Cavs - best player in league, 2 other All NBA caliber players
Heat - best player in league, 2 other All NBA caliber players
Spurs - rising star, greatest PF ever, All NBA guard, HOF guard
Thunder - 3 future MVP's
Heat - best player in league, 2 other All NBA caliber players
Celtics - 3 All NBA players, rising star
Magic - top 5 player
Lakers - top 5 player, 1 other all nba player

So you add the Heat, the older Celtics, along with the Spurs without a top 5 player, and arguably the Thunder, though they had Durant, Westbrook, and Harden on that team. 

The reason I say Boston isn't a contender is because they don't have a top 5 player.  2 All NBA caliber players isn't generally enough.  Even on teams that have a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense because when the playoffs roll around you need a guy that is a top 5 guy to fall back on.  And that top 5 guy almost always needs another top 15ish player to fall back on.  It is one of the reasons why the Bucks haven't been able to break through because for as good as Middleton has been, he hasn't been a guy that the Bucks could consistently rely on when Giannis needed help.  There have been plenty of teams that have been both top 5 offenses and top 5 defenses that weren't really considered realistic contenders.  Toronto was one of those teams before Kawhi.  The Hawks 60 win season they were 6th in ORTG and DRTG (and were 4th in Net RTG and SRS), but no one thought they had a chance of winning the title and they were swept by Cleveland in a totally non-competitive series.  And frankly champions are often not in the top 5 for both categories, so I just don't think it has much actual correlation to what being a contender is.  The regular season is not the post season.


At the end of the day, teams almost always need a top 5 player and at least 1 other top 15 player to even make the Finals, let alone win.  I certainly believe Tatum can get to that top 5 status one day (I've been pushing that narrative for years now), but he isn't there yet and until he is there, Boston isn't going to be a contender.  Top end talent wins, and Boston quite simply doesn't have it right now. 
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Re: Ainge on 98.5 FM’s The Sports Hub’s Toucher and Rich show, talk TPE
« Reply #148 on: February 11, 2021, 10:04:19 PM »

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I don't think Boston beats Toronto if those games are in Toronto.  History bears out just how infrequently Boston wins in Toronto and the teams were obviously pretty evenly matched.  So I think Miami, Milwaukee, and Toronto were all better teams in the east last year.  Miami is struggling this year, but I think they will still be as good as they were last year when the playoffs roll around.  Toronto is obviously not as good as they were, but are still in Boston's same general range (they are 1 game back).  Brooklyn is certainly better than Boston (at least from a playoff perspective if not regular season as well) and Philadelphia may very well be (they will clearly finish with a better record, though it is yet to be seen how good they will be in the playoffs).  So Boston is the 4th, 5th, or 6th best team in the East and was always going to be.  They certainly could end up with a better seed than that, as health plays a big part in regular season records (though Indiana could finish as a higher seed also). 

Teams that are consistent contenders quite simply have top end talent that is better than the C's have.  The C's have been a very good regular season team, but in the playoffs you just need the uber elite guys to have any real shot at winning championships.  Even the Bucks, who have the 2-time defending MVP, haven't even made the Finals, because the supporting cast around Giannis just hasn't been good enough and their supporting cast has been better and deeper than Boston's.  Top end talent wins and Boston quite simply doesn't have it.  Hopefully someday Tatum elevates into that class and Brown continues to improve so that he can be a sufficiently talented #2, but until that happens, Boston isn't a contender.


Two All-NBA caliber players is top end talent.  Any definition of top end talent that excludes Tatum and Brown, at this stage, is simply an obviously flawed definition.

You also completely skipped right past the point I made that the Celtics were a top 5 offense and defense last season.  That's another rock solid indicator of being an elite team.

You can spin alternate histories as much as you like -- I can't argue with you, because you're stating an opinion that isn't based in anything that can be proven or disproven.  I would just point out that I haven't seen you similarly discounting what other teams (like the Lakers or Heat) did in this most recent post-season on account of the neutral court.  For whatever reason you only apply that skepticism to the Celtics.


It's one thing to say the Celtics are not in the top tier of teams in the league -- what I would call the "title favorites."  I would agree with that.  They're not in the same category as the Lakers or Clippers.  They don't have the same level of talent at the top of the roster as the Bucks (based solely on Giannis), Sixers, or Nets.

It's entirely a different thing to say the Celts, heading into this season, could not reasonably be considered in the outer circle of dark horse title contenders.  That would include teams like Miami, Dallas, Denver, Utah, etc.  The Celtics absolutely earned that level of consideration and to say otherwise requires you to completely discount what the team has done the past few years, relying on opinion and gut-level instinct rather than any concrete pieces of evidence.


Look, I don't want to make this personal, but I feel like you have always been pessimistic about the Celtics, year after year.  My impression is that there's almost nothing the Celtics could do short of winning the title that would convince you to change your mind about them "not being good enough."  Even so, you've been proven wrong a lot of the time about how good they are and how far they can go.  So I would think that perhaps having been wrong about that would encourage some humility or doubt as to your own instincts on that sort of thing.  I've been a pessimist at times myself, and I'd like to think I've recognized when my priors about the players and the team as a whole have been shown to be too negative.
But Boston doesn't actually have top end talent when looking at title winners and frankly title runner-ups most of the time.

Look at the last decade or so.

Lakers - 2 top 5 players
Raptors - top 5 player, 2 other all NBA caliber players, former dpoy
Warriors - 2 top 5 players, 2 other all NBA caliber players
Cavs - best player in league, 2 other all NBA players
Warriors - top 5 player (and 2 time MVP), 2 other all NBA players
Spurs - rising star, greatest PF ever, All NBA guard, HOF guard
Heat - best player in league, 2 other all nba player
Mavs - top 5 player, dpoy, HOF (old) guard
Lakers - top 5 player, 1 other all nba player
Celtics - top 5 player, 2 other all nba players

The Spurs are the only team that didn't have a top 5 player of the champions and they all basically had at least 1 other top 15 type player.  The Spurs though had the greatest PF in the history of the game (Duncan), a HOF guard in his prime (Parker), a HOF guard at the tail end of his prime (Manu), and a rising star (Leonard).  Duncan is what really sets them apart from Boston, and that is the closest comparison.  Now I get it those are the champions, but what about the runner-ups. 

Heat - Top 10 player, Rising Star
Warriors - 2 top 5 players, 2 other All NBA caliber players
Cavs - best player in league, 2 other All NBA caliber players
Heat - best player in league, 2 other All NBA caliber players
Spurs - rising star, greatest PF ever, All NBA guard, HOF guard
Thunder - 3 future MVP's
Heat - best player in league, 2 other All NBA caliber players
Celtics - 3 All NBA players, rising star
Magic - top 5 player
Lakers - top 5 player, 1 other all nba player

So you add the Heat, the older Celtics, along with the Spurs without a top 5 player, and arguably the Thunder, though they had Durant, Westbrook, and Harden on that team. 

The reason I say Boston isn't a contender is because they don't have a top 5 player.  2 All NBA caliber players isn't generally enough.  Even on teams that have a top 5 offense and a top 5 defense because when the playoffs roll around you need a guy that is a top 5 guy to fall back on.  And that top 5 guy almost always needs another top 15ish player to fall back on.  It is one of the reasons why the Bucks haven't been able to break through because for as good as Middleton has been, he hasn't been a guy that the Bucks could consistently rely on when Giannis needed help.  There have been plenty of teams that have been both top 5 offenses and top 5 defenses that weren't really considered realistic contenders.  Toronto was one of those teams before Kawhi.  The Hawks 60 win season they were 6th in ORTG and DRTG (and were 4th in Net RTG and SRS), but no one thought they had a chance of winning the title and they were swept by Cleveland in a totally non-competitive series.  And frankly champions are often not in the top 5 for both categories, so I just don't think it has much actual correlation to what being a contender is.  The regular season is not the post season.


At the end of the day, teams almost always need a top 5 player and at least 1 other top 15 player to even make the Finals, let alone win.  I certainly believe Tatum can get to that top 5 status one day (I've been pushing that narrative for years now), but he isn't there yet and until he is there, Boston isn't going to be a contender.  Top end talent wins, and Boston quite simply doesn't have it right now.
You're overrating a bunch of those teams. The 2013 and 2014 Spurs had a very similar core to our team right now - they had two top 15 guys in Parker and Duncan surrounded by a bunch of top 40-60 players in Green/Kawhi/Manu (Manu exited his prime after 2011, he was not in the tail end of his prime as a 23 MPG player in those finals runs).

The Heat also have a similar makeup to our team - they were led by one top 10-15 player in Butler and was supported by two stars and a couple of top 40-60 players, that's not too different from our duo of Tatum/Brown with Kemba being a third star and Smart/Theis being top 40-60 players.

Middleton shouldn't be an offensive #1 on a true title contender, him not being able to carry the Bucks is more of an indictment on Giannis' playoff woes instead of the Bucks supporting cast being inadequate. He's also a top 15ish player that a superstar can fall back on, it's just that Giannis-led playoff offences get really clunky without the perfect fit around him - that's a knock on Giannis' offensive deficiencies.
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« Reply #149 on: February 12, 2021, 03:20:48 AM »

Offline gouki88

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If Jaylen is going to be limited for the near future dealing with nagging knee issues, this season is basically a lost cause already.

All around it's starting to feel like this just isn't meant to be a year in which the Celts seriously compete for anything, due entirely to things outside their control.
Did you really think Boston was going to seriously compete for the title this year?  I mean that honestly because I just never saw this team as a realistic contender if everything went 100% correct, and we know that never happens.


I've said this in many places, but the Celts were a top 5 team on offense and defense last year, even with Hayward missing tons of time and not participating in the playoffs.  They got to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals and the main reason (in my judgment) that they were unable to advance is that their opponent was simply much better at executing in the fourth quarter.  It wasn't a matter of lacking talent. 

My hope was that this team could come back just as strong as they were in the playoffs (again, where Hayward was basically not a factor) and show gradual improvement in their execution through playing together over the course of the season.

So yes, I saw the Celts as a team with a shot at making a deep run to the Finals, but only if things broke in their favor.  I think that's how it is for most very good but not super great teams.
I don't think Boston beats Toronto if those games are in Toronto.  History bears out just how infrequently Boston wins in Toronto and the teams were obviously pretty evenly matched.  So I think Miami, Milwaukee, and Toronto were all better teams in the east last year.  Miami is struggling this year, but I think they will still be as good as they were last year when the playoffs roll around.  Toronto is obviously not as good as they were, but are still in Boston's same general range (they are 1 game back).  Brooklyn is certainly better than Boston (at least from a playoff perspective if not regular season as well) and Philadelphia may very well be (they will clearly finish with a better record, though it is yet to be seen how good they will be in the playoffs).  So Boston is the 4th, 5th, or 6th best team in the East and was always going to be.  They certainly could end up with a better seed than that, as health plays a big part in regular season records (though Indiana could finish as a higher seed also). 

Teams that are consistent contenders quite simply have top end talent that is better than the C's have.  The C's have been a very good regular season team, but in the playoffs you just need the uber elite guys to have any real shot at winning championships.  Even the Bucks, who have the 2-time defending MVP, haven't even made the Finals, because the supporting cast around Giannis just hasn't been good enough and their supporting cast has been better and deeper than Boston's.  Top end talent wins and Boston quite simply doesn't have it.  Hopefully someday Tatum elevates into that class and Brown continues to improve so that he can be a sufficiently talented #2, but until that happens, Boston isn't a contender.
I do love the way you somehow twist Boston beating Toronto with a hampered star player into Toronto being the better team. Only you could reach such a conclusion
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)