Author Topic: One Day till the 2020 Draft  (Read 1802 times)

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Re: One Day till the 2020 Draft
« Reply #15 on: November 17, 2020, 11:00:53 PM »

Online action781

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Devin Vassell
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Picks in the 2021 draft

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Theo Maledon
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Marcus Smart trade ideas
2020 CelticsStrong All-2000s Draft -- Utah Jazz
 
Finals Starters:  Jason Kidd - Reggie Miller - PJ Tucker - Al Horford - Shaq
Bench:  Rajon Rondo - Trae Young - Marcus Smart - Jaylen Brown -  Peja Stojakovic - Jamal Mashburn - Carlos Boozer - Tristan Thompson - Mehmet Okur

Re: One Day till the 2020 Draft
« Reply #16 on: November 17, 2020, 11:19:31 PM »

Online action781

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Also -- I'm interested in your own personal draft history -- which of you can legitimately claim to have a strong history with hits and relatively few misses?   Which of you are more throwing darts at a board v. those who are students of the draft and have attained in-depth knowledge of these prospects?

One thing I have firmly believed for a few years now is that "hits and misses" end up being largely due to circumstance rather than being innately right or wrong about the player.  Of course there are some players who probably would thrive or bust anywhere, but I think circumstance and luck play a big role. 

Some examples:
1) I think Markelle Fultz would be at minimum a Ja Morant caliber player if he were drafted to almost any other team besides Philly.
2) Draymond Green probably would never have been an all-star NBA player had he not been drafted to GSW AND David Lee not gotten hurt.
3) I believed before the 2017 draft that Lonzo Ball could be a potential future HOF player IF he got drafted into the right situation and had the right kind of team constructed around him.
4) Would Clint Capela ever have developed into who he is today if he wasn't drafted to Houston?
5) Would Andrew Wiggins be an all-nba talent if he wasn't traded into a situation where he was rewarded with 36 minutes and a lion's share of fga per game regardless of how hard he tried?

So when people say "I KNEW Tatum was the better player than Fultz going into 2017!" I actually don't even know if that's absolutely true in a vacuum.  I'm not sure that if Fultz and Tatum were both drafted by different teams, that Fultz might not be looking like the better player right now.
2020 CelticsStrong All-2000s Draft -- Utah Jazz
 
Finals Starters:  Jason Kidd - Reggie Miller - PJ Tucker - Al Horford - Shaq
Bench:  Rajon Rondo - Trae Young - Marcus Smart - Jaylen Brown -  Peja Stojakovic - Jamal Mashburn - Carlos Boozer - Tristan Thompson - Mehmet Okur

Re: One Day till the 2020 Draft
« Reply #17 on: November 17, 2020, 11:25:35 PM »

Offline wiley

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3 Likes:

1. Okongwu
2. Patrick Williams
3. Devin Vassell

Honorable mention Like = Halliburton,  Quickley

3 Draft night sour notes (though highly uninformed)

1.  Jaylen Smith
2.  Nesmith
3.  Josh Green

Honorable mention dislike = Carey Jr., Wiseman (again uninformed)
« Last Edit: November 17, 2020, 11:31:01 PM by wiley »

Re: One Day till the 2020 Draft
« Reply #18 on: November 18, 2020, 02:40:19 AM »

Offline libermaniac

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Also -- I'm interested in your own personal draft history -- which of you can legitimately claim to have a strong history with hits and relatively few misses?   Which of you are more throwing darts at a board v. those who are students of the draft and have attained in-depth knowledge of these prospects?

One thing I have firmly believed for a few years now is that "hits and misses" end up being largely due to circumstance rather than being innately right or wrong about the player.  Of course there are some players who probably would thrive or bust anywhere, but I think circumstance and luck play a big role. 

Some examples:
1) I think Markelle Fultz would be at minimum a Ja Morant caliber player if he were drafted to almost any other team besides Philly.
2) Draymond Green probably would never have been an all-star NBA player had he not been drafted to GSW AND David Lee not gotten hurt.
3) I believed before the 2017 draft that Lonzo Ball could be a potential future HOF player IF he got drafted into the right situation and had the right kind of team constructed around him.
4) Would Clint Capela ever have developed into who he is today if he wasn't drafted to Houston?
5) Would Andrew Wiggins be an all-nba talent if he wasn't traded into a situation where he was rewarded with 36 minutes and a lion's share of fga per game regardless of how hard he tried?

So when people say "I KNEW Tatum was the better player than Fultz going into 2017!" I actually don't even know if that's absolutely true in a vacuum.  I'm not sure that if Fultz and Tatum were both drafted by different teams, that Fultz might not be looking like the better player right now.
Not sure why you believe that. I couldnít disagree more.

Re: One Day till the 2020 Draft
« Reply #19 on: November 18, 2020, 08:40:44 PM »

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I'm pretty good at identifing underrated players. Cam Johnson last year, Brogdon, Devonte Graham, Kuzma are some examples of guys I like early that climbed boards late and became good pros.

This year was high on Jalen Smith before most, now some mocks have him in the lottery. Same with Banes who has now climbed from 2nd rounder to first. I am now promoting Josh Green, Zeke Nnaji and Quickley as guys to also target.

For higher picks I had Murray over Brown their draft but was okay with either selection. I had Tatum a better fit than Fultz. I had KD over Oden.

So I do okay but I'm not perfect. A huge recent miss was Herro. Wasn't a fan felt Bryce Brown was a better shooter and fit. Well Bryce went undrafted (he is ok in Gleague 42% 3pt) while Herro is a homerun right now. I was alao big on James Young but wanted Garry Harris over him. Young never grew.

I base most my picks on production, skills and measurables by age. So when some guys like Herro (or say Maxey and McDaniels this year) show skill but not a lot of production it's hard for me to bang the table for them. I'm trying to always adjust.

TP and thanks for the reply.   

So C's at 14 - who've you got?

Re: One Day till the 2020 Draft
« Reply #20 on: November 19, 2020, 01:28:50 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

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I'm pretty good at identifing underrated players. Cam Johnson last year, Brogdon, Devonte Graham, Kuzma are some examples of guys I like early that climbed boards late and became good pros.

This year was high on Jalen Smith before most, now some mocks have him in the lottery. Same with Banes who has now climbed from 2nd rounder to first. I am now promoting Josh Green, Zeke Nnaji and Quickley as guys to also target.

For higher picks I had Murray over Brown their draft but was okay with either selection. I had Tatum a better fit than Fultz. I had KD over Oden.

So I do okay but I'm not perfect. A huge recent miss was Herro. Wasn't a fan felt Bryce Brown was a better shooter and fit. Well Bryce went undrafted (he is ok in Gleague 42% 3pt) while Herro is a homerun right now. I was alao big on James Young but wanted Garry Harris over him. Young never grew.

I base most my picks on production, skills and measurables by age. So when some guys like Herro (or say Maxey and McDaniels this year) show skill but not a lot of production it's hard for me to bang the table for them. I'm trying to always adjust.

TP and thanks for the reply.   

So C's at 14 - who've you got?
Nesmith would have been my choice based on what was available at 14. But at 26 would have gone with Carey if the weight loss was true.