
It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome. If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).
I don't know Roy. Right now the 'coinflip' states are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. I just don't think Trump can flip a coin 7 times and get heads all 7 times. People forget one of the reason's Hillary lost was because of Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe has those locked up just about. I can't imagine Joe Biden, a more popular candidate than Hillary, losing all of those swing states.
The thing is, winning one "coin flip" would mean that it's more likely he wins the others, since it would mean that polls underrated his support again. I don't think it's likely, but it's certainly more likely than 1 in 128 (which is still worryingly high)
I very well may be wrong but I have more faith in the polls this year because I do not believe there are nearly as many shy Trump voters as there were in 2016. For as much as his followers like to talk about being the "silent majority" they are not so silent. His win has embolden his supporters so I expect the polls are more accurate this time around. For the sake of our country I hope I am right.
Then again, the "loud" Trump voters may be the reason that other Trump voters are "shy". They may want to vote the same way, but don't identify with, do not even want to be associated with, certain other segments of Trump voters perhaps.
I think that’s right. I have lots of Republican friends. They fall into two categories: 1. Very pro-Trump, post on FB constantly, wear MAGA hats; and 2. Secretly pro-Trump, because most of their friends and colleagues are Democrats
I think that most Trump voters still fall into the second category, at least up here in Maine.
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Allow me to vent about the “loud” Trump voters. This morning I drove by my neighborhoods local park. This is a typical small-town park, playground for the kids, one basketball hoop, etc. It’s very family oriented. This morning, some idiot put up probably 30 signs. About 25 of them were a depiction of Calvin (from Calvin and Hobbes) urinating on Pelosi. Immature and stupid, and not fit for a children’s area. Worse, about five of the signs were typical blue Trump signs, but underneath there was a slogan: “F—- your feelings.” Written out. For children to see.
The idiots who put up that sign are actively harming society. It’s just spreading hate and discontent. Their goal in putting up the sign wasn’t advocacy, but rather to make others feel upset. Who does that?
And, in fairness, across the street from these signs was a neighbor who had 17 anti-Trump signs, many of them bordering on vulgar. So, it’s not just the Trump voters.
Unfortunately, most only see those people. The loud, vulgar ones. So they think that's pretty much Trump's base. I know many Trump supporters and can tell you the obnoxious ones are definitely a tiny minority. I'm not even sure they are the most truly politically engaged. They are just gladly tribal. One guy I know is like this with everything from sports to politics. It's almost like he just happens to be a Trump supporter and has bought in 110%, rather than consider what that actually means.
What does it "Acutally mean" to be a Trump Supporter?
Again, as an outside, it seems like you want a stable economy, you want logical and obtainable change, you want to promote your country first and foremost and you want nothing to do with socialism.
The Socialist candidates have lost the Democratic Primary in both of these last two election cycles. If you listen to Trump and his special media, they will keep hammering home the Socialist angle; but Biden is a moderate, Hillary was a moderate. I do not believe in Socialism, but I fully believe in social equality and climate change, and can't imagine voting for a Republican with the state their party is in.
If we were talking John Kasich (Republican) versus Bernie Sanders (Democrat), I would likely be voting for Kasich in this election - and I don't think I am alone as a Biden voter in that regard. That is the real difference here. A lot of us just want things to settle down - the fear and hate that Trump has been propagating [on both sides] is just really unnerving.
I can see your point about the divide. That really is scary honestly. There are some that will go completely nuts if Trump wins.
I am kind of surprised that people see Biden as a Moderate. We did the same thing with Trudeau. I no longer believe there is any scale to socialism at all. You are or you are not, the rest is just what is being said. The Difference in Bernie and Biden/Hillary is that Bernie seems like he will not be told what to do. Much like Trump. And the big money backers (big Tech - Google, Facebook, Youtube, CNN etc) do not like that. They want someone to control, much like dear little Justin Castro/Trudeau up here