Transition of Power - All Things Presidential Thread

[Roy H.]

It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).

Why don't more states divide electoral votes by districts like Maine does?

Because deciding to do so instantly reduces your state's impact on the election. Even though people as a whole would be better represented if every state voted by district, all it would take is one state choosing to lump all of their votes together to give them a huge political advantage. So unless you can get every state to agree to do that, you'll have a hard time getting any states to do it (especially big states)

We really should have a new Constitutional Convention.  We could use a handful of new amendments.

[gift]

It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).

I don't know Roy. Right now the 'coinflip' states are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. I just don't think Trump can flip a coin 7 times and get heads all 7 times. People forget one of the reason's Hillary lost was because of Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe has those locked up just about. I can't imagine Joe Biden, a more popular candidate than Hillary, losing all of those swing states.

The thing is, winning one "coin flip" would mean that it's more likely he wins the others, since it would mean that polls underrated his support again. I don't think it's likely, but it's certainly more likely than 1 in 128 (which is still worryingly high)

I very well may be wrong but I have more faith in the polls this year because I do not believe there are nearly as many shy Trump voters as there were in 2016. For as much as his followers like to talk about being the "silent majority" they are not so silent. His win has embolden his supporters so I expect the polls are more accurate this time around. For the sake of our country I hope I am right.

Then again, the "loud" Trump voters may be the reason that other Trump voters are "shy". They may want to vote the same way, but don't identify with, do not even want to be associated with, certain other segments of Trump voters perhaps.

[gift]

It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).

Why don't more states divide electoral votes by districts like Maine does?

I'd love to see this, but it likely would take multiple states cooperating with each other since some parties in certain states wouldn't want to weaken their electoral power while other parties in other states maintain a winner-take-all.

[Darth_Yoda]

As a non American, I am not sure why anyone would not vote for Trump in this election.

I get he is an egomaniac. Like one of the worst ones who has ever walked on the face of the earth. But has he not done a decent job? Certainly better than the last few presidents?

And Biden is senile, is a gross liar, is a puppet for silicon valley and is in collusion with the People Republic of China.

I just dont get it.

[ederson]

As a non American, I am not sure why anyone would not vote for Trump in this election.

I get he is an egomaniac. Like one of the worst ones who has ever walked on the face of the earth. But has he not done a decent job? Certainly better than the last few presidents?

And Biden is senile, is a gross liar, is a puppet for silicon valley and is in collusion with the People Republic of China.

I just dont get it.

Being an egomaniac is the only wrong thing you see ?

[gift]

As a non American, I am not sure why anyone would not vote for Trump in this election.

I get he is an egomaniac. Like one of the worst ones who has ever walked on the face of the earth. But has he not done a decent job? Certainly better than the last few presidents?

And Biden is senile, is a gross liar, is a puppet for silicon valley and is in collusion with the People Republic of China.

I just dont get it.

Out of curiosity, where are you from? Just wondering if your view is typical of certain non-Americans.

I think there are certainly those Americans who share your opinion, but plenty more have quite the opposite view. It's quite divided.

[KGs Knee]

It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).

I don't know Roy. Right now the 'coinflip' states are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. I just don't think Trump can flip a coin 7 times and get heads all 7 times. People forget one of the reason's Hillary lost was because of Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe has those locked up just about. I can't imagine Joe Biden, a more popular candidate than Hillary, losing all of those swing states.

The thing is, winning one "coin flip" would mean that it's more likely he wins the others, since it would mean that polls underrated his support again. I don't think it's likely, but it's certainly more likely than 1 in 128 (which is still worryingly high)

I very well may be wrong but I have more faith in the polls this year because I do not believe there are nearly as many shy Trump voters as there were in 2016. For as much as his followers like to talk about being the "silent majority" they are not so silent. His win has embolden his supporters so I expect the polls are more accurate this time around. For the sake of our country I hope I am right.

I think there is a difference between public shows of support by putting up signs, banners, and billboards, or having rallies, versus responding to a pollster.  I think many conservatives, as well as libertarians, non-conformists, or other anti-government types are just far less likely to reply to pollsters, thus the data for Trump, specifically, isn't super accurate.

Personally, I refuse to reply to pollsters and view it as an unwanted, unsolicited intrusion into to my personal business.  I also refuse to answer phone calls from numbers I do not recognize.  You can leave a voicemail if it's important.

[Roy H.]

It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).

I don't know Roy. Right now the 'coinflip' states are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. I just don't think Trump can flip a coin 7 times and get heads all 7 times. People forget one of the reason's Hillary lost was because of Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe has those locked up just about. I can't imagine Joe Biden, a more popular candidate than Hillary, losing all of those swing states.

The thing is, winning one "coin flip" would mean that it's more likely he wins the others, since it would mean that polls underrated his support again. I don't think it's likely, but it's certainly more likely than 1 in 128 (which is still worryingly high)

I very well may be wrong but I have more faith in the polls this year because I do not believe there are nearly as many shy Trump voters as there were in 2016. For as much as his followers like to talk about being the "silent majority" they are not so silent. His win has embolden his supporters so I expect the polls are more accurate this time around. For the sake of our country I hope I am right.

Then again, the "loud" Trump voters may be the reason that other Trump voters are "shy". They may want to vote the same way, but don't identify with, do not even want to be associated with, certain other segments of Trump voters perhaps.

I think that’s right.  I have lots of Republican friends.  They fall into two categories:  1. Very pro-Trump, post on FB constantly, wear MAGA hats; and 2. Secretly pro-Trump, because most of their friends and colleagues are Democrats

I think that most Trump voters still fall into the second category, at least up here in Maine.

——————————————————-

Allow me to vent about the “loud” Trump voters.  This morning I drove by my neighborhoods local park. This is a typical small-town park, playground for the kids, one basketball hoop, etc. It’s very family oriented. This morning, some idiot put up probably 30 signs.  About 25 of them were a depiction of Calvin (from Calvin and Hobbes) urinating on Pelosi.  Immature and stupid, and not fit for a children’s area.  Worse, about five of the signs were typical blue Trump signs, but underneath there was a slogan:  “F—- your feelings.”  Written out.  For children to see.

The idiots who put up that sign are actively harming society. It’s just spreading hate and discontent. Their goal in putting up the sign wasn’t advocacy, but rather to make others feel upset. Who does that?

And, in fairness, across the street from these signs was a neighbor who had 17 anti-Trump signs, many of them bordering on vulgar.  So, it’s not just the Trump voters.

[gift]

It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).

I don't know Roy. Right now the 'coinflip' states are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. I just don't think Trump can flip a coin 7 times and get heads all 7 times. People forget one of the reason's Hillary lost was because of Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe has those locked up just about. I can't imagine Joe Biden, a more popular candidate than Hillary, losing all of those swing states.

The thing is, winning one "coin flip" would mean that it's more likely he wins the others, since it would mean that polls underrated his support again. I don't think it's likely, but it's certainly more likely than 1 in 128 (which is still worryingly high)

I very well may be wrong but I have more faith in the polls this year because I do not believe there are nearly as many shy Trump voters as there were in 2016. For as much as his followers like to talk about being the "silent majority" they are not so silent. His win has embolden his supporters so I expect the polls are more accurate this time around. For the sake of our country I hope I am right.

Then again, the "loud" Trump voters may be the reason that other Trump voters are "shy". They may want to vote the same way, but don't identify with, do not even want to be associated with, certain other segments of Trump voters perhaps.

I think that’s right.  I have lots of Republican friends.  They fall into two categories:  1. Very pro-Trump, post on FB constantly, wear MAGA hats; and 2. Secretly pro-Trump, because most of their friends and colleagues are Democrats

I think that most Trump voters still fall into the second category, at least up here in Maine.

——————————————————-

Allow me to vent about the “loud” Trump voters.  This morning I drove by my neighborhoods local park. This is a typical small-town park, playground for the kids, one basketball hoop, etc. It’s very family oriented. This morning, some idiot put up probably 30 signs.  About 25 of them were a depiction of Calvin (from Calvin and Hobbes) urinating on Pelosi.  Immature and stupid, and not fit for a children’s area.  Worse, about five of the signs were typical blue Trump signs, but underneath there was a slogan:  “F—- your feelings.”  Written out.  For children to see.

The idiots who put up that sign are actively harming society. It’s just spreading hate and discontent. Their goal in putting up the sign wasn’t advocacy, but rather to make others feel upset. Who does that?

And, in fairness, across the street from these signs was a neighbor who had 17 anti-Trump signs, many of them bordering on vulgar.  So, it’s not just the Trump voters.

Unfortunately, most only see those people. The loud, vulgar ones. So they think that's pretty much Trump's base. I know many Trump supporters and can tell you the obnoxious ones are definitely a tiny minority. I'm not even sure they are the most truly politically engaged. They are just gladly tribal. One guy I know is like this with everything from sports to politics. It's almost like he just happens to be a Trump supporter and has bought in 110%, rather than consider what that actually means.

[GreenFaith1819]

It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).

I don't know Roy. Right now the 'coinflip' states are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. I just don't think Trump can flip a coin 7 times and get heads all 7 times. People forget one of the reason's Hillary lost was because of Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe has those locked up just about. I can't imagine Joe Biden, a more popular candidate than Hillary, losing all of those swing states.

The thing is, winning one "coin flip" would mean that it's more likely he wins the others, since it would mean that polls underrated his support again. I don't think it's likely, but it's certainly more likely than 1 in 128 (which is still worryingly high)

I very well may be wrong but I have more faith in the polls this year because I do not believe there are nearly as many shy Trump voters as there were in 2016. For as much as his followers like to talk about being the "silent majority" they are not so silent. His win has embolden his supporters so I expect the polls are more accurate this time around. For the sake of our country I hope I am right.

Then again, the "loud" Trump voters may be the reason that other Trump voters are "shy". They may want to vote the same way, but don't identify with, do not even want to be associated with, certain other segments of Trump voters perhaps.

I think that’s right.  I have lots of Republican friends.  They fall into two categories:  1. Very pro-Trump, post on FB constantly, wear MAGA hats; and 2. Secretly pro-Trump, because most of their friends and colleagues are Democrats

I think that most Trump voters still fall into the second category, at least up here in Maine.

——————————————————-

Allow me to vent about the “loud” Trump voters.  This morning I drove by my neighborhoods local park. This is a typical small-town park, playground for the kids, one basketball hoop, etc. It’s very family oriented. This morning, some idiot put up probably 30 signs.  About 25 of them were a depiction of Calvin (from Calvin and Hobbes) urinating on Pelosi.  Immature and stupid, and not fit for a children’s area.  Worse, about five of the signs were typical blue Trump signs, but underneath there was a slogan:  “F—- your feelings.”  Written out.  For children to see.

The idiots who put up that sign are actively harming society. It’s just spreading hate and discontent. Their goal in putting up the sign wasn’t advocacy, but rather to make others feel upset. Who does that?

And, in fairness, across the street from these signs was a neighbor who had 17 anti-Trump signs, many of them bordering on vulgar.  So, it’s not just the Trump voters.

Unfortunately, most only see those people. The loud, vulgar ones. So they think that's pretty much Trump's base. I know many Trump supporters and can tell you the obnoxious ones are definitely a tiny minority. I'm not even sure they are the most truly politically engaged. They are just gladly tribal. One guy I know is like this with everything from sports to politics. It's almost like he just happens to be a Trump supporter and has bought in 110%, rather than consider what that actually means.

Here's MY thing, though -

Your post, Gift, and Roy's -  bring to mind the fact that the silence among ALL Trump supporters against their "Worst Portions" is DEAFENING.........

Sure - "MOST" Trump supporters are not like Dylan Roof.....'MOST" Trump supporters are not like the ones Roy mentioned...."MOST" Trump supporters are not like the ones who tried to run the Biden/Harris bus off the highway the other day..................................

...but my displeasure with the so-called "GOOD" Trump supporters is the DEAFENING SILENCE..............

Silence is oftentimes complicity. Please remember that. This is not a fair assessment, admittedly - nor an indictment of ALL Trump suporters. But we MUST speak out against the fringe edges of BOTH sides.

BOTH.

[JohnBoy65]

I think the nation is still so badly wounded from the outcome of 2016. Everyone I watched and read predicted Hillary had it in the bag. This is creating interesting discourse in 2020.

Biden's national polls are better than Hillary's were
Biden's state polls are better than Hillary's were
Biden is outperforming Hillary in some key electorate demographics
Biden has made traditionally red states competitive


Any other year we'd be convinced that Biden would win easily, but it's that "fool me once" type of thinking.

[Darth_Yoda]

As a non American, I am not sure why anyone would not vote for Trump in this election.

I get he is an egomaniac. Like one of the worst ones who has ever walked on the face of the earth. But has he not done a decent job? Certainly better than the last few presidents?

And Biden is senile, is a gross liar, is a puppet for silicon valley and is in collusion with the People Republic of China.

I just dont get it.

Out of curiosity, where are you from? Just wondering if your view is typical of certain non-Americans.

I think there are certainly those Americans who share your opinion, but plenty more have quite the opposite view. It's quite divided.

Canada.

We have a socialist liberal leader up here.

He has caused the worst debt our country has seen since world war II.
He has let so many refugees in that it is starting to cripple affordable housing and it is putting Canadian families out on the street as their rent is doubling
He has been punishing working Canadians during the pandemic and is continuing to print money to pay people to stay home.
He has promised alot of things to our Indigenous peoples and has not followed through on anything. (this is all a hige mess in Canada)
He wants to block a 22 billion dollar train line from Alaska to Alberta
He has created a carbon tax that does nothing to improve the environment
He has appointed people that fit the color and sex scale as opposed to skill
We have the highest unemployement rate in the G&
He promised that national debt would not increase by more than 10 billion, he increased it by 380 Billion. We now have by far the highest national debt in the G20

He threatened to call an election if Parliment voted to create a scandal committee to investigate his NUMEROUS scandals.

He has given billions to a couple of our TV/Media companies because they were losing money. Now those companies are purely PRO Trudea. Trump is mentioned in our news cycles on these chanels FAR more often. They want Canadians to keep attention elsewhere.


There are so many of us that see what happens with a Guy like Biden running the show. When the socialist left gets in charge things go sour quickly.
As a country we up here will end up with a 20% interest rate, just like it was when Justin Trudeaus father was Prime Minister.

And most of us want someone more like Trump in office up here.

There are those that march and protest to save the environment while doing nothing to make any change

there are those that feel like their should be a mobile unit of social workers that show up every time police officers show up to any call.

There are those that feel like the Indigenous have had their land stolen and that we all as Canadians need to acknowledge this on a daily basis. (this sounds crazy but its true. 90% of government workers now have to sign their emails that they acknowledge that the land once belonged to a certain tribe and that land was seized from them illegally - even though it was a war and they lost the land)


Etc, Etc, and those people want someone like Biden to win. But, most of us, think those people are lunatics.


Facebook political groups, non government funded media, everyday middle class folks all oppose socialism. We all want equality, but we also want to remain exclusively Canadian. And our Social Liberal government is slowly chipping away at that.

For example, our government made a LAW that all public service people MUST wear a mask to prevent Covid. The RCMP added that police must wear a properly fitting N95 mask. As we all know some religions have mean wear beards. Beards prevent proper fitting of N95 facemasks. So the RCMP took those with heavy beards and put them on jobs in which they would not have contact with the public. This created ire and went to court as a discriminatory case, and now those police officers with beards are not allowed to be kept away from public even though they are not wearing masks properly, breaking a law that the government created.


So as opposed to being reasonable and doing what is recommended to prevent the spread of the virus, we are putting people at a potentially higher level of risk because we have to accommodate.


Certain things have made America and Canada great. HAs made our economy strong, and has made us countries that are tops for immigration. People want to flock to our countries, yet now we are not being run good enough and it all needs to change? if it is so bad to the people immigrating here then why are they coming?

too long didnt read:
I just realized I am rambling and babbling.

A large population of Canadians hate socialism, and they see what it brings as our standard of living and our national debt has exploded in 4 short years. We immediately want it to go away. Unfortunately, our federal governement still holds enough seats to prevent any change.
The liberals have become far left social
The NDP have always been Socialist
The Green party are just lunatics who scream change the environment but offer no real means to do so
the Bloq Quebecois are just pro Quebec

We know what is being pushed in the states and it sucks.

[Darth_Yoda]

It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).

I don't know Roy. Right now the 'coinflip' states are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. I just don't think Trump can flip a coin 7 times and get heads all 7 times. People forget one of the reason's Hillary lost was because of Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe has those locked up just about. I can't imagine Joe Biden, a more popular candidate than Hillary, losing all of those swing states.

The thing is, winning one "coin flip" would mean that it's more likely he wins the others, since it would mean that polls underrated his support again. I don't think it's likely, but it's certainly more likely than 1 in 128 (which is still worryingly high)

I very well may be wrong but I have more faith in the polls this year because I do not believe there are nearly as many shy Trump voters as there were in 2016. For as much as his followers like to talk about being the "silent majority" they are not so silent. His win has embolden his supporters so I expect the polls are more accurate this time around. For the sake of our country I hope I am right.

Then again, the "loud" Trump voters may be the reason that other Trump voters are "shy". They may want to vote the same way, but don't identify with, do not even want to be associated with, certain other segments of Trump voters perhaps.

I think that’s right.  I have lots of Republican friends.  They fall into two categories:  1. Very pro-Trump, post on FB constantly, wear MAGA hats; and 2. Secretly pro-Trump, because most of their friends and colleagues are Democrats

I think that most Trump voters still fall into the second category, at least up here in Maine.

——————————————————-

Allow me to vent about the “loud” Trump voters.  This morning I drove by my neighborhoods local park. This is a typical small-town park, playground for the kids, one basketball hoop, etc. It’s very family oriented. This morning, some idiot put up probably 30 signs.  About 25 of them were a depiction of Calvin (from Calvin and Hobbes) urinating on Pelosi.  Immature and stupid, and not fit for a children’s area.  Worse, about five of the signs were typical blue Trump signs, but underneath there was a slogan:  “F—- your feelings.”  Written out.  For children to see.

The idiots who put up that sign are actively harming society. It’s just spreading hate and discontent. Their goal in putting up the sign wasn’t advocacy, but rather to make others feel upset. Who does that?

And, in fairness, across the street from these signs was a neighbor who had 17 anti-Trump signs, many of them bordering on vulgar.  So, it’s not just the Trump voters.

Unfortunately, most only see those people. The loud, vulgar ones. So they think that's pretty much Trump's base. I know many Trump supporters and can tell you the obnoxious ones are definitely a tiny minority. I'm not even sure they are the most truly politically engaged. They are just gladly tribal. One guy I know is like this with everything from sports to politics. It's almost like he just happens to be a Trump supporter and has bought in 110%, rather than consider what that actually means.

What does it "Acutally mean" to be a Trump Supporter?

Again, as an outside, it seems like you want a stable economy, you want logical and obtainable change, you want to promote your country first and foremost and you want nothing to do with socialism.

[gift]

As a non American, I am not sure why anyone would not vote for Trump in this election.

I get he is an egomaniac. Like one of the worst ones who has ever walked on the face of the earth. But has he not done a decent job? Certainly better than the last few presidents?

And Biden is senile, is a gross liar, is a puppet for silicon valley and is in collusion with the People Republic of China.

I just dont get it.

Out of curiosity, where are you from? Just wondering if your view is typical of certain non-Americans.

I think there are certainly those Americans who share your opinion, but plenty more have quite the opposite view. It's quite divided.

Canada.

We have a socialist liberal leader up here.

He has caused the worst debt our country has seen since world war II.
He has let so many refugees in that it is starting to cripple affordable housing and it is putting Canadian families out on the street as their rent is doubling
He has been punishing working Canadians during the pandemic and is continuing to print money to pay people to stay home.
He has promised alot of things to our Indigenous peoples and has not followed through on anything. (this is all a hige mess in Canada)
He wants to block a 22 billion dollar train line from Alaska to Alberta
He has created a carbon tax that does nothing to improve the environment
He has appointed people that fit the color and sex scale as opposed to skill
We have the highest unemployement rate in the G&
He promised that national debt would not increase by more than 10 billion, he increased it by 380 Billion. We now have by far the highest national debt in the G20

He threatened to call an election if Parliment voted to create a scandal committee to investigate his NUMEROUS scandals.

He has given billions to a couple of our TV/Media companies because they were losing money. Now those companies are purely PRO Trudea. Trump is mentioned in our news cycles on these chanels FAR more often. They want Canadians to keep attention elsewhere.


There are so many of us that see what happens with a Guy like Biden running the show. When the socialist left gets in charge things go sour quickly.
As a country we up here will end up with a 20% interest rate, just like it was when Justin Trudeaus father was Prime Minister.

And most of us want someone more like Trump in office up here.

There are those that march and protest to save the environment while doing nothing to make any change

there are those that feel like their should be a mobile unit of social workers that show up every time police officers show up to any call.

There are those that feel like the Indigenous have had their land stolen and that we all as Canadians need to acknowledge this on a daily basis. (this sounds crazy but its true. 90% of government workers now have to sign their emails that they acknowledge that the land once belonged to a certain tribe and that land was seized from them illegally - even though it was a war and they lost the land)


Etc, Etc, and those people want someone like Biden to win. But, most of us, think those people are lunatics.


Facebook political groups, non government funded media, everyday middle class folks all oppose socialism. We all want equality, but we also want to remain exclusively Canadian. And our Social Liberal government is slowly chipping away at that.

For example, our government made a LAW that all public service people MUST wear a mask to prevent Covid. The RCMP added that police must wear a properly fitting N95 mask. As we all know some religions have mean wear beards. Beards prevent proper fitting of N95 facemasks. So the RCMP took those with heavy beards and put them on jobs in which they would not have contact with the public. This created ire and went to court as a discriminatory case, and now those police officers with beards are not allowed to be kept away from public even though they are not wearing masks properly, breaking a law that the government created.


So as opposed to being reasonable and doing what is recommended to prevent the spread of the virus, we are putting people at a potentially higher level of risk because we have to accommodate.


Certain things have made America and Canada great. HAs made our economy strong, and has made us countries that are tops for immigration. People want to flock to our countries, yet now we are not being run good enough and it all needs to change? if it is so bad to the people immigrating here then why are they coming?

too long didnt read:
I just realized I am rambling and babbling.

A large population of Canadians hate socialism, and they see what it brings as our standard of living and our national debt has exploded in 4 short years. We immediately want it to go away. Unfortunately, our federal governement still holds enough seats to prevent any change.
The liberals have become far left social
The NDP have always been Socialist
The Green party are just lunatics who scream change the environment but offer no real means to do so
the Bloq Quebecois are just pro Quebec

We know what is being pushed in the states and it sucks.

Gotcha. I'm somewhat familiar with Trudeau and some of these issues on the surface but I don't hear a lot directly from Canadians about him.

[jambr380]

It’s scary, but this is a plausible outcome.  If Trump wins PA but loses Arizona and traditionally blue states, the second district in Maine could earn him a tie (if Nebraska’s Omaha District stays red).

I don't know Roy. Right now the 'coinflip' states are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. I just don't think Trump can flip a coin 7 times and get heads all 7 times. People forget one of the reason's Hillary lost was because of Michigan and Wisconsin. Joe has those locked up just about. I can't imagine Joe Biden, a more popular candidate than Hillary, losing all of those swing states.

The thing is, winning one "coin flip" would mean that it's more likely he wins the others, since it would mean that polls underrated his support again. I don't think it's likely, but it's certainly more likely than 1 in 128 (which is still worryingly high)

I very well may be wrong but I have more faith in the polls this year because I do not believe there are nearly as many shy Trump voters as there were in 2016. For as much as his followers like to talk about being the "silent majority" they are not so silent. His win has embolden his supporters so I expect the polls are more accurate this time around. For the sake of our country I hope I am right.

Then again, the "loud" Trump voters may be the reason that other Trump voters are "shy". They may want to vote the same way, but don't identify with, do not even want to be associated with, certain other segments of Trump voters perhaps.

I think that’s right.  I have lots of Republican friends.  They fall into two categories:  1. Very pro-Trump, post on FB constantly, wear MAGA hats; and 2. Secretly pro-Trump, because most of their friends and colleagues are Democrats

I think that most Trump voters still fall into the second category, at least up here in Maine.

——————————————————-

Allow me to vent about the “loud” Trump voters.  This morning I drove by my neighborhoods local park. This is a typical small-town park, playground for the kids, one basketball hoop, etc. It’s very family oriented. This morning, some idiot put up probably 30 signs.  About 25 of them were a depiction of Calvin (from Calvin and Hobbes) urinating on Pelosi.  Immature and stupid, and not fit for a children’s area.  Worse, about five of the signs were typical blue Trump signs, but underneath there was a slogan:  “F—- your feelings.”  Written out.  For children to see.

The idiots who put up that sign are actively harming society. It’s just spreading hate and discontent. Their goal in putting up the sign wasn’t advocacy, but rather to make others feel upset. Who does that?

And, in fairness, across the street from these signs was a neighbor who had 17 anti-Trump signs, many of them bordering on vulgar.  So, it’s not just the Trump voters.

Unfortunately, most only see those people. The loud, vulgar ones. So they think that's pretty much Trump's base. I know many Trump supporters and can tell you the obnoxious ones are definitely a tiny minority. I'm not even sure they are the most truly politically engaged. They are just gladly tribal. One guy I know is like this with everything from sports to politics. It's almost like he just happens to be a Trump supporter and has bought in 110%, rather than consider what that actually means.

What does it "Acutally mean" to be a Trump Supporter?

Again, as an outside, it seems like you want a stable economy, you want logical and obtainable change, you want to promote your country first and foremost and you want nothing to do with socialism.

The Socialist candidates have lost the Democratic Primary in both of these last two election cycles. If you listen to Trump and his special media, they will keep hammering home the Socialist angle; but Biden is a moderate, Hillary was a moderate. I do not believe in Socialism, but I fully believe in social equality and climate change, and can't imagine voting for a Republican with the state their party is in.

If we were talking John Kasich (Republican) versus Bernie Sanders (Democrat), I would likely be voting for Kasich in this election - and I don't think I am alone as a Biden voter in that regard. That is the real difference here. A lot of us just want things to settle down - the fear and hate that Trump has been propagating [on both sides] is just really unnerving.