Author Topic: Transition of Power - All Things Presidential Thread  (Read 72362 times)

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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2020, 10:39:10 AM »

Offline mmmmm

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So what are the odds that the election is actually called on Tuesday night? 50%? 30%?

As Roy notes, it's probably going to depend on who is 'ahead'.

Polls indicate that mail-in & early voters were overwhelmingly registered as Democrats while conversely, those who intend to vote in-person on Tuesday tend to GOP.

Given that many states do not start counting mail-in & early ballots until after Election Day, there is a very real chance that Trump will have a lead by the end of Tuesday night and will make lots of noise calling it a victory and that the race should be called.   No credible media site will likely 'call it' in that scenario, though.

If, however, Biden is ahead based on the in-person voting, then I suspect some sites will 'call it' early based on the projection that the mail-in voting will only add to his margin.   They really shouldn't though.   All votes should be counted until it is mathematically impossible for the outcome to change before it is 'called'.
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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2020, 11:04:13 AM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Its a blow out. ,  Biden by a mile .   ;D

Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2020, 12:21:51 PM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

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So what are the odds that the election is actually called on Tuesday night? 50%? 30%?

As Roy notes, it's probably going to depend on who is 'ahead'.

Polls indicate that mail-in & early voters were overwhelmingly registered as Democrats while conversely, those who intend to vote in-person on Tuesday tend to GOP.

Given that many states do not start counting mail-in & early ballots until after Election Day, there is a very real chance that Trump will have a lead by the end of Tuesday night and will make lots of noise calling it a victory and that the race should be called.   No credible media site will likely 'call it' in that scenario, though.

If, however, Biden is ahead based on the in-person voting, then I suspect some sites will 'call it' early based on the projection that the mail-in voting will only add to his margin.   They really shouldn't though.   All votes should be counted until it is mathematically impossible for the outcome to change before it is 'called'.

Yeah -- the predictability in looking at trends that leads to "calling a race" in a state on a typical election night is so different this time around.  So many unknowns re: the mail-in ballots.

The piece that confuses me is that I think some states will have all early voting counted while other states won't begin counting until election day.   The numbers we are used to seeing on election night will likely be pretty deceiving.  There will probably be a lot of emotional ups and downs on both sides as numbers are added to the counts.

Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2020, 12:52:30 PM »

Offline johnnygreen

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Due to the high probability of an increase in mail-in ballots because of COVID, shouldn't they have been required to have been postmarked or dropped off by a certain date, prior to election day? Maybe one week before election day? I apologize, but I don't follow the elections close enough to know the answer. It would seem to make sense to me, to provide the people in charge of counting those ballots to have ample time prior to November 3.

Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2020, 01:11:48 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Due to the high probability of an increase in mail-in ballots because of COVID, shouldn't they have been required to have been postmarked or dropped off by a certain date, prior to election day? Maybe one week before election day? I apologize, but I don't follow the elections close enough to know the answer. It would seem to make sense to me, to provide the people in charge of counting those ballots to have ample time prior to November 3.

It depends on the state.  Some states require ballots to be received by Election Day.  Others allow ballots post-marked by Nov. 3.
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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2020, 01:13:11 PM »

Offline JohnBoy65

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Due to the high probability of an increase in mail-in ballots because of COVID, shouldn't they have been required to have been postmarked or dropped off by a certain date, prior to election day? Maybe one week before election day? I apologize, but I don't follow the elections close enough to know the answer. It would seem to make sense to me, to provide the people in charge of counting those ballots to have ample time prior to November 3.

Voting is determined by the states. Each state creates the laws on voting. Some states allow ballots to be counted that arrive 3 days late as long as their postmarked appropriately. Some don't. We've seen republicans challenge these rules in the court, and thus far to minimal success in getting them overturned.

As far as if it's called tomorrow night, I believe Florida is in the process of counting early voting and absentee now so that when their polls close their will be an instant results (likely showing a big Biden lead). If the in person voting doesn't start to tighten the state up we could see it called early.

As is pretty true with some of the other swing states. Based on polling it looks as if Biden only needs one or 2 of those swing states to win. If he can capture those tomorrow night it'll be called. I don't think Trump will be declared winner tomorrow night, but I think Biden could.

Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2020, 02:26:06 PM »

Offline kraidstar

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Due to the high probability of an increase in mail-in ballots because of COVID, shouldn't they have been required to have been postmarked or dropped off by a certain date, prior to election day? Maybe one week before election day? I apologize, but I don't follow the elections close enough to know the answer. It would seem to make sense to me, to provide the people in charge of counting those ballots to have ample time prior to November 3.

Voting is determined by the states. Each state creates the laws on voting. Some states allow ballots to be counted that arrive 3 days late as long as their postmarked appropriately. Some don't. We've seen republicans challenge these rules in the court, and thus far to minimal success in getting them overturned.

As far as if it's called tomorrow night, I believe Florida is in the process of counting early voting and absentee now so that when their polls close their will be an instant results (likely showing a big Biden lead). If the in person voting doesn't start to tighten the state up we could see it called early.

As is pretty true with some of the other swing states. Based on polling it looks as if Biden only needs one or 2 of those swing states to win. If he can capture those tomorrow night it'll be called. I don't think Trump will be declared winner tomorrow night, but I think Biden could.

Florida is the state to watch tomorrow. Unlike most of the other swing states, Florida counts their absentee ballots as they arrive, they don't wait until election day. So most of those votes should be tallied by tomorrow. After in-person votes are tallied Tuesday night we should have a good idea of who won there.

If Biden wins Florida the election is basically over. It is a state Trump absolutely cannot afford to lose. Because there no real path to 270 without it, losing Florida would derail his strategy to declare early victory and muddy up the results with some help from his friends in the courtroom.

Trump needs a decisive win there; anything less does not bode too well for Trump nationally. Trump needs those national polls to have been drastically wrong.

Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2020, 02:47:42 PM »

Offline GreenFaith1819

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Well, thank God we've made it this far.

Tomorrow this country REALLY starts to come back.

As reality "FINALLY" settles in with Trump as he sees the results come in from his pending loss it will PROBABLY get ugly....I hope I'm wrong.

He's not used to losing - but it starts tomorrow.

Going forward we'll see LESS race-baiting....less division.....less mocking of those wearing masks....less threats to Dr, Birx and Dr. Fauci.......less pandering to extremist groups....less turning our backs on our allies........

America gets her independence starting TOMORROW.

Praise God for that.
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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2020, 03:37:48 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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Quote
NPR Politics
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#BREAKING: A federal judge in Texas has ruled that about 127,000 ballots cast in Harris County via curbside voting are valid and cannot be thrown out, despite a last-minute lawsuit on behalf of a group of Republican candidates and activists.


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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2020, 03:39:18 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Quote
NPR Politics
@nprpolitics
#BREAKING: A federal judge in Texas has ruled that about 127,000 ballots cast in Harris County via curbside voting are valid and cannot be thrown out, despite a last-minute lawsuit on behalf of a group of Republican candidates and activists.

Too lazy to look:  what was the basis for asking to reject them?

EDIT:  Curiousity overcame laziness.  If I’m understanding correctly, the Texas voting statute does not allow for “drive-through “voting. However, one county clerk initiated the process, and over 100,000 people voted that way. 

It’s a very tough call for a judge, particularly a Republican judge. Volts where illegally cast, but through no fault of the voters. On the eve of the election, there is no way to ensure that those voters can vote again.

I think the right thing to do is to allow the votes, and fire / prosecute the clerk.

« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 03:48:17 PM by Roy H. »
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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #25 on: November 02, 2020, 03:45:34 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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NPR Politics
@nprpolitics
#BREAKING: A federal judge in Texas has ruled that about 127,000 ballots cast in Harris County via curbside voting are valid and cannot be thrown out, despite a last-minute lawsuit on behalf of a group of Republican candidates and activists.

Too lazy to look:  what was the basis for asking to reject them?

From what I understand, that Harris County overstepped its bounds by allowing drive thru voting.


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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #26 on: November 02, 2020, 03:54:23 PM »

Offline SparzWizard

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Its a blow out. ,  Biden by a mile .   ;D

Hopefully it's a 131-92 Game 6 2008 NBA finals typa victory for Biden, even tho he wasn't my first choice.  ;D

Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #27 on: November 02, 2020, 03:57:20 PM »

Offline 86MaxwellSmart

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I'm not voting for Trump tomorrow...cause I already voted for him last week.  :P
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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #28 on: November 02, 2020, 04:15:30 PM »

Offline Amonkey

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I'm not voting for Trump tomorrow...cause I already voted for him last week.  :P

Good job doing your civic duty. No matter who wins or loses, let us remind ourselves that we will still be coexisting together. This is our opportunity as a society to decide how we want to move forward and some will have to swallow a big pill, but no matter what, as much as the partisan politics may make look otherwise, we are all in this together.
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Re: Election Day Thread
« Reply #29 on: November 02, 2020, 04:24:09 PM »

Offline gift

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I'm not voting for Trump tomorrow...cause I already voted for him last week.  :P

Good job doing your civic duty. No matter who wins or loses, let us remind ourselves that we will still be coexisting together. This is our opportunity as a society to decide how we want to move forward and some will have to swallow a big pill, but no matter what, as much as the partisan politics may make look otherwise, we are all in this together.

I'm hopeful that no matter what, the vast majority of people have this attitude. This election is a great opportunity for the country. The more people who take this approach, the better off we'll all be.