Author Topic: What is your main approach to evaluate the draft?  (Read 674 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

What is your main approach to evaluate the draft?
« on: October 08, 2020, 10:03:04 AM »

Online RodyTur10

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1628
  • Tommy Points: 200
  • Always offline from 9pm till 3am
I think there are three basic ways to evaluate young talent on their chances to make it in the NBA:

1. Focus on skills

You look at specific skill sets or special attributes of a player, which you think would help him or deem necessary to succeed in the NBA. Bad stats are not a big factor, but are due to inexperience or a bad environment. This mindset probably pushes booms or busts higher on your ranking.

Recent examples: Jaylen Brown, Cam Reddish, Romeo Langford
Draft 2020 examples: Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, Killian Hayes, Patrick Williams, Precious Achiuwa, Cole Anthony, RJ Hampton, Aleksej Pokusevski, Jaden McDaniels, Isaiah Joe
 
2. Focus on production

You look at who's playing well on a lower level (mostly NCAA), because when a player can't perform in a lower league there isn't much reason to expect him to blossom against better competition. Statistical efficiency and actual production are key components in this approach.

Recent examples: Buddy Hield, Marvin Bagley, Rui Hachimura
Draft 2020 examples: James Wiseman, Obi Toppin, Aaron Nesmith, Saddiq Bey, Kira Lewis, Tyrell Terry, Jalen Smith, Paul Reed, Vernon Carey Jr, Daniel Oturu, Marcus Howard

3. Focus on winning

You're interested into who's actual winning. You don't really care how or why a player is contributing to wins. The best indicator for you to a future winning player is if he has done it before. You look at the team's record and advanced stats like win shares and BPM.

Recent examples: Lonzo Ball, Jaren Jackson Jr, Grant Williams
Draft 2020 examples: Deni Avdija, Devin Vassell, Onyeka Okongwu, Tyrese Haliburton, Xavier Tillman, Desmond Bane, Tyler Bey, Devon Dotson, Sam Merrill, Payton Pritchard


Of course the easy answer is: a combination of all 3. But I'm pretty sure everyone has more faith in one of these 3 basic methods. What's yours?
Rationalism over beliefs

Re: What is your main approach to evaluate the draft?
« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2020, 10:11:44 AM »

Online Roy H.

  • Forums Manager
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 42569
  • Tommy Points: -27085
  • 33,333 posts and counting . . .
60 / 30 / 10 in skills vs production vs winning
Once a CrotoNat, always a CrotoNat. CelticsBlog Draft Champions, 2009 & 2012.

Re: What is your main approach to evaluate the draft?
« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2020, 10:25:27 AM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4460
  • Tommy Points: 652
I'm pretty heavily weighted to number one in my evaluation. I like to see skills and advanced skills. For example, for shooters, I like to see more than just a set-shooter. I like to see guys with quick releases, good range, moving both directions, and off the dribble. For distributors, I like to see more than just dump-off passes to a big man in the dunkers spot. I like to see the ability to get into the paint, hit the corners where the helpside defense is coming from, etc. I love Killian Hayes and Cole Anthony. I've also warmed more to Devin Vassell.

Combined with that, I like feisty players. For example, I pay close attention to matchups when lower draft prospects are going against the top ten draft prospects. I'm a sucker for underdogs that perform well against bigger/more talented opponents. If a player plays well enough against those top prospects, and even leads his team to victory, I find it to be a pretty good indicator of their ability to impact a basketball game. Okongwu and Kira Lewis Jr. both fit this kind of player.

If you put it into a math formula, it would be weighted half for NBA skills and half for feistiness, but then that number would be modified by their production. If they were productive at a high level, I'd multiply that number by 100%. If they put up Durant or Curry college numbers, it is multiplied by 120%. If they struggled with efficiency ala Jaylen Brown, It'd be multiplied by 90%.

Re: What is your main approach to evaluate the draft?
« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2020, 10:48:49 AM »

Online Vermont Green

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4931
  • Tommy Points: 428
Skills or core abilities is the main thing that should be considered in evaluating 19 year old kids.  And there are two categories of abilities that need to be considered, some that can be learned some that can't.  This isn't entirely black and white.  The old cliche you can't teach height or speed is true but if you get in better shape or loose a little weight, you might get a little quicker, or go the other way and get a little stronger, but only to a point.

To me, the biggest "can't teach" skill that is often overlooked is the ability of a player to keep up with the speed of the game.  That is partly how fast they run but really the bigger thing is how they see the game and how quickly they react to the game.  If you don't have that ability at an NBA level, you won't make it.  That was the issue with Fab Melo.  He was tall, could run, jump, shoot OK for a big, but he was a beat slow as compared to the NBA.  The result was that he had no chance.  Same issue with Patrick O'Bryant.  This is not an issue exclusive to bigs but can be the most glaring in bigs.

If a player doesn't shoot well or slows down when they are dribbling, some of that can be taught or developed so I am more willing to take a chance and hope that skill will develop.  But you never know.

Re: What is your main approach to evaluate the draft?
« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2020, 10:55:28 AM »

Offline wiley

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4354
  • Tommy Points: 345
I would say I go by production plus intangibles for offense.
And skill plus intangibles for defense.
Intangibles include things like IQ and motor, as well as listening skills and personality.

So intangibles are always present and can't be ignored (I think intabibles were more ignored in the past but have come more into vogue nowadays).

Then come up with some clue about potential based on physical attributes and current stage of physical development, along with capacity to improve skills on offense and defense (or one or the other in some cases).

Then figure out risk reward.

So two guys to look at are Poku and Jaden McDaniels.

Both very high skill level, but not really lottery considerations, Jaden due to perceived poor intangibles (immaturity or motor?) and lack of production (offense), and Poku due to physical attributes and lack of experience for judging his production.

I think overall this blog would lean towards Poku over Jaden, due to the perceived intangibles
of each player.  One is seen as feisty (Poku) and one not.

Winning definitely helps a draft candidate, but I wouldn't say that losing necessarily hurts a draftee, though it can if above mentioned factors in that individual are seen as responsible in part for the losing.

Not sure I can give percentages on differentiating between skills, production and winning.  Winning is last though as for most I'd guess.  Skills can beat production and production can beat skills depending on other factors. 

A vet team probably leans Bane (good production plus good skill) over Jaden McDaniels (very high skill), while a team at the bottom I would think would lean McDaniels or Poku or Scrubb for the perceived talent (skill) level.

The top three in this draft have off the charts skill but everyone wants to trade out of those spots...
not enough intangibles, but we'll see.  Teams veer back to talent over intangibles as draft day gets closer IMO.

EDIT:  to be clear, from a  pure evaluation standpoint, skills are more important than production, since the guys are young. 
« Last Edit: October 08, 2020, 11:01:04 AM by wiley »

Re: What is your main approach to evaluate the draft?
« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2020, 11:06:08 AM »

Online Donoghus

  • Global Moderator
  • Bob Cousy
  • **************************
  • Posts: 26616
  • Tommy Points: 1279
  • What a Pub Should Be
Let other CS posters figure it out. 

 ;)


2010 CB Historical Draft - Best Overall Team

Re: What is your main approach to evaluate the draft?
« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2020, 11:43:35 AM »

Offline footey

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11572
  • Tommy Points: 1449
70/30/0

Re: What is your main approach to evaluate the draft?
« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2020, 12:15:31 PM »

Online Csfan1984

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6996
  • Tommy Points: 177
Things I look at are age, size, athleticism, current skill set, IQ, system, interviews/character.

Winning isn't a huge deal as it's a team sport but I do believe in production. Did they perform against tough competition or in clutch moments. Did they maintain focus against weak clubs, etc.

So give them points for each group and then an overall score.

Then you look your team system,  roster depth, roster needs, and the time table to develop vs what's available.

If a guy is older than 22 he needs to be NBA ready day one physically and have  one elite skill. Younger guys you can assume are growing.

If BPA is someone you don't need and can't develop then trade that pick and move down.

Re: What is your main approach to evaluate the draft?
« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2020, 02:37:33 PM »

Offline Somebody

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5812
  • Tommy Points: 392
  • KANSEI DORIFUTO
3 is almost impossible to evaluate well so I drop it out of my consideration completely - I don't think scaled +/- stats like PI RAPM (it would be pretty useless in small sample sizes anyways) nor composite box stats like PIPM/Backpicks BPM are available for the college game.

To me it's 80 percent 1 and 20 percent 3, skillset pretty much sets a "ceiling" on what a player will be barring outlier development imo.

Re: What is your main approach to evaluate the draft?
« Reply #9 on: October 08, 2020, 05:21:05 PM »

Offline johnnygreen

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1146
  • Tommy Points: 214
I donít think you can overlook mechanics and basketball IQ. These are two areas, where I want a solid foundation before the player enters the pros. If you need to work on coaching in these areas to help the player, then that player may always be a step behind. The problem is, you canít put that into a computer for an analytical analysis. You simply have to see the player to determine those qualities. The best shooters have simple mechanics, that can be easily duplicated on every shot attempt, which helps with a quicker release. Basketball IQ has to be almost instinctual in nature at the NBA level. If a player has to think before his move, then his opponent is most likely already by him.

Re: What is your main approach to evaluate the draft?
« Reply #10 on: October 08, 2020, 05:38:53 PM »

Online gouki88

  • Global Moderator
  • JoJo White
  • ****************
  • Posts: 16222
  • Tommy Points: 928
  • 2019 CS Historical Draft Champion
60 / 30 / 10 in skills vs production vs winning
Similar, probably more 65 / 30 / 5 though.

I try to look at their skillset and BBIQ on both ends relative to their age, what kind of schemes their coaches instilled, and in a general sense their character. Athleticism and being an NBA-level athlete is obviously important, but if they're skilled enough they can overcome it quite easily. Production is important, but not overly important.
Players have been overrated as a result of their production (McDermott, Fredette) or they've greatly outshone their pre-NBA production (Adebayo). That's where an arbitrary evaluation of potential vs production has to come into consideration, which I do almost entirely just by what my eyes tell me.

Re: What is your main approach to evaluate the draft?
« Reply #11 on: October 08, 2020, 07:13:10 PM »

Online RodyTur10

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1628
  • Tommy Points: 200
  • Always offline from 9pm till 3am
I donít think you can overlook mechanics and basketball IQ. These are two areas, where I want a solid foundation before the player enters the pros. If you need to work on coaching in these areas to help the player, then that player may always be a step behind. The problem is, you canít put that into a computer for an analytical analysis. You simply have to see the player to determine those qualities. The best shooters have simple mechanics, that can be easily duplicated on every shot attempt, which helps with a quicker release. Basketball IQ has to be almost instinctual in nature at the NBA level. If a player has to think before his move, then his opponent is most likely already by him.

That's a nice quote, TP.

I'll give you some funny or wise quotes by Dutch football legend Johan Cruijff, which may sometimes also apply to basketball.

"We've done an excellent job, simply because we can't do better"

"I'm still convinced that the way I do it is the way you should do it, because otherwise I wouldn't be doing it"

"The ball is an essential part of the game"

"If I wanted you to understand I would have explained better"

"If I ask you to show me what you can do, you'd show me what you can. But then I also know what you can't do, since you would have shown me"

"When we have the ball, they can't score"

"Football is simple, you're either in time or too late. If you're too late you have to start sooner"

"You play football with your head, because the ball is faster than your legs"

"Sometimes something has to happen before something happens"

"The simpler the better. Because the less options you give a player, the bigger the chance he picks the right option"

"You can also play well without touching the ball"

"I terribly dislike someone moving who doesn't know where to"

"There are lots of people who can tell when a team is playing bad, there are much less people who can tell why they're playing bad and only a few can tell what should happen to make them play better"

"If you choose the best player for every position you won't have a strong team, but a team that will fall apart like loose sand"

"Before I make a mistake I'm not making that mistake"

"I'm against everything. Until I make a decision, then I'm in favour"

"Every disadvantage has its advantage"

"Football is simple. What's difficult is to play simple football"

"If I ask someone to help me on the pitch, they always think they have to come towards me, but you help me more by moving away"
Rationalism over beliefs

Re: What is your main approach to evaluate the draft?
« Reply #12 on: October 08, 2020, 07:24:19 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15304
  • Tommy Points: 2098
  • bammokja
a dartboard.

to be honest, that can't be any worse than i am at picking players....

i lament all those hours i spent yearning over exum, bender, ntilikina, dennis smith, dunn, zizic, mudiay, and other such nobodies who went nowhere.

but if anyone wants my choices for this year let me know!! i would be glad to share them.  ;D
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy ó not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Re: What is your main approach to evaluate the draft?
« Reply #13 on: October 09, 2020, 01:55:19 AM »

Offline Somebody

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5812
  • Tommy Points: 392
  • KANSEI DORIFUTO
I donít think you can overlook mechanics and basketball IQ. These are two areas, where I want a solid foundation before the player enters the pros. If you need to work on coaching in these areas to help the player, then that player may always be a step behind. The problem is, you canít put that into a computer for an analytical analysis. You simply have to see the player to determine those qualities. The best shooters have simple mechanics, that can be easily duplicated on every shot attempt, which helps with a quicker release. Basketball IQ has to be almost instinctual in nature at the NBA level. If a player has to think before his move, then his opponent is most likely already by him.
That would be statistical analysis though. Analytical analysis involves heavy video study to make sense of the numbers on the spreadsheet in order to help decision-makers in basketball make better decisions.