I remember a debate during the lockdowns in the US that the lockdowns don't help much and were killing our economy. Scientists and many politicians in the meantime were telling us that the only way to fix the economy was to follow strict regulations to get the virus in check.
Fast-forward to today, and from the success that places like NY, MA, most of Europe, etc. have had with cases m with citizens in these places more confident to go to businesses and in case of europe, for tourists to go there this summer, compared to the US , especially places like Texas, Florida, most of the south, who believed that the virus was a blue states problem, are screwed. We now have more than enough data to know that lockdowns and strict precautions were the way to go BOTH for the health of citizens and the health of the economy. Trump and everyone who supported quick re-openings and a total lack of regard to the virus made a bet that the virus would just fade away this summer, and lost big time.
Now, the US is exponentially worse off than any other country in the world in terms of coronavirus cases, with no end in sight. This is a complete failure and we are set for a very ugly July and August.
This is a pretty fair assessment, I think, including the prediction for July and August. The virus is now out of control in multiple places with woefully inadequate preparation; Arizona is the worst, but there's a long list.
Lockdowns work when you are getting flooded with virus. They're an emergency measure when you get so far behind that it's all you've got.
We missed our chance to nip the epidemic in the bud - numerous countries did in fact do that. If we hadn't been asleep at the switch we could have done it, too. We were forced instead to stay at home, in fact to pay people to stay home and close businesses, etc.
The lockdowns were effective in 'bending the curve', but our second big failure was in not preparing to open up again while the lockdowns were going on. Most states that 'opened up' didn't meet the minimum Federal guidelines for doing it, with the predictable consequences that we're now seeing.
You can get it under control, as many countries now have, with good old-fashioned tracing and isolating; but if a state has over 5% test positivity you're going to keep getting behind. That applies to 24 states right now.
These nine states now have a bona fide emergency on their hands and have no business to continue their 'opening up' policies:
South Carolina 13.7%
Many of the governors of those states will find it politically difficult to re-instate lockdowns, even long after it is necessary from a public health perspective; and it looks like it will become necessary for some, if not all of them.
This was so avoidable
. The first failure was hugely damaging to our economy; but the second failure could easily be worse. Businesses that could hang on for four months might find eight months insuperable, and there will be cascading effects from decreased consumer spending.