Author Topic: Coronavirus Concerns  (Read 239010 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Coronavirus Concerns
« on: February 13, 2020, 04:54:00 AM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

  • JoJo White
  • ****************
  • Posts: 16389
  • Tommy Points: 1769
A record # of deaths due to Coronavirus yesterday.  Total of 1300 deaths reported to date.  About double the # of deaths reported in the SARS scare.  About 60,000 cases reported worldwide 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/12/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-covid-19-update-intl-hnk/index.html

The likelihood of death from the virus if you catch it appears to be lower than SARS and 80% of cases are considered relatively mild. Also likely that many mild cases arenít diagnosed/reported so this would further reduce likelihood of death rate.

Transmission of the virus seems to be an open discussion.  Beyond typical ways viruses are spread there is some concern about why it seems some people quarantined on ships or in hotels are becoming infected despite seemingly no direct contact with sick people.  There seems to be growing affirmation that the virus is spread when symptoms are not present. 

Only 14 cases reported in US but numbers rising rapidly in China and neighboring countries.

Anyway... just thought it deserved a thread as concerns may rise.  Also thought there may be folks here who know something about infectious disease who may either stoke or allay fears, but may offer interesting info and insights.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 02:31:42 PM by Redz »

Re: Coronavirus: Concerned?
« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2020, 05:27:45 AM »

Online Somebody

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5418
  • Tommy Points: 360
  • KANSEI DORIFUTO
It's closer to the common flu than SARS in terms of how fatal it is - it has a ~2% death rate compared to the ~10% of SARS. As for transmission of the virus, it mainly infects people when they touch something that was contaminated by an infected individual (usually by their hands or droplets that were coughed/sneezed out) and proceed to fiddle with their nose/eyes. It's certainly not something to be terrified of, just make sure not to touch your nose and eyes without washing your hands thoroughly (besides avoiding crowds and wearing a mask in public) and you'll be fine.
Rockets PG: Westbrook, Rivers, Clemons SG: Harden, Gordon, McLemore
SF: House, Carroll, Caboclo PF: Covington, Green, Williams
C: Tucker, Hartenstein, Bender
Warriors PG: Curry, Jackson, Bowman SG: Thompson, Lee, Poole
SF: Wiggins, Okoro, Anderson PF: Green, Paschall, MKG
C: Looney, Chriss, Smiley

Re: Coronavirus: Concerned?
« Reply #2 on: February 13, 2020, 05:33:44 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6806
  • Tommy Points: 151
I'm concerned but not much we can do but follow a healthy lifestyle and the rules for flu season.

If you have kids under 8 that have flu symptoms or you are over 55 and have the symptoms get tested.

Re: Coronavirus: Concerned?
« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2020, 05:46:20 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

  • NCE
  • Dennis Johnson
  • ******************
  • Posts: 18344
  • Tommy Points: 1239
Flu at present is a much bigger danger folks the CDC estimates 12,000 Ė 30,000 flu deaths this year.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

That being said, only a fool would not be concerned.   We really do not understand much about the virus and we don't know really how many have died as the Chinese Government is notorious for hiding things.

Am I wearing a mask nope, but I did restock some of my emergency supplies like water, dry food goods just in case.

Re: Coronavirus: Concerned?
« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2020, 06:24:40 AM »

Offline Roy H.

  • Forums Manager
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 41901
  • Tommy Points: -27133
  • 33,333 posts and counting . . .
Iím more concerned about its potential effect on the global economy than I am on anybody I know getting seriously ill.z
Once a CrotoNat, always a CrotoNat. CelticsBlog Draft Champions, 2009 & 2012.

Re: Coronavirus: Concerned?
« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2020, 06:26:23 AM »

Offline gouki88

  • Global Moderator
  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13949
  • Tommy Points: 796
  • 2019 CS Historical Draft Champion
It's closer to the common flu than SARS in terms of how fatal it is - it has a ~2% death rate compared to the ~10% of SARS. As for transmission of the virus, it mainly infects people when they touch something that was contaminated by an infected individual (usually by their hands or droplets that were coughed/sneezed out) and proceed to fiddle with their nose/eyes. It's certainly not something to be terrified of, just make sure not to touch your nose and eyes without washing your hands thoroughly (besides avoiding crowds and wearing a mask in public) and you'll be fine.
Yeah, SARS was much more potent - just seems like Coronavirus has hit many more people. True shame that it broke out in a city with a bigger population than New York and Philly combined.

Re: Coronavirus: Concerned?
« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2020, 06:48:24 AM »

Offline saltlover

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12490
  • Tommy Points: 2619
It's closer to the common flu than SARS in terms of how fatal it is - it has a ~2% death rate compared to the ~10% of SARS. As for transmission of the virus, it mainly infects people when they touch something that was contaminated by an infected individual (usually by their hands or droplets that were coughed/sneezed out) and proceed to fiddle with their nose/eyes. It's certainly not something to be terrified of, just make sure not to touch your nose and eyes without washing your hands thoroughly (besides avoiding crowds and wearing a mask in public) and you'll be fine.

Honestly, knowledge of the disease is still too early to make strong statements about the death rate.  Of known cases, about 2.2% have resulted in deaths, which yes, is closer to influenza, but maybe 10-15% above.

However, that may be underselling things.  The overwhelming majority of people who have ever contracted the disease (nearly 90%) are still sick.  Some, sadly, will die.  So 2.2% seems to be the lower bound of the death rate, given our current treatment ability.  When you just look at the percentage of people who have died as a percent of closed cases (fully recovered or died), the death rate is a frightening 18%.  Thatís probably an upper-bound.

Beyond that, weíre still learning how itís transmitted and how long some people can transmit the disease before they show signs of infection.  Iím far outside my area of expertise, but I really do want to push back against the ďsimilar to the fluĒ narrative.  That would seem to be the absolute best-case scenario at this point, and we donít have enough information to be so conclusive.

Hereís a simple to read dashboard about the status of cases that regularly updates.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Re: Coronavirus: Concerned?
« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2020, 08:15:59 AM »

Online RockinRyA

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4856
  • Tommy Points: 621
We have had confirmed cases here and also had 1 death I think, 3 infected and about hundred more under suspicion. These people came from planes from china.

From what I gather, it is less deadly (so far) than MERS and SARS but far more infectious, thus resulting in more actual deaths tham both previous coronaviruses.

Saltlover is right, the rate could go higher as a lot of the infected havent been cured yet.

Most people here are in panic, lots of misinformation going around. Doesnt help that a lot are politicizing this issue trying to use it against the government. Also, n95 mask and standard surgical mask has been out of stock here for a while now. Really a problem for our family since we have a kid and we dont want to be carrying viruses to him.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 08:56:46 AM by RockinRyA »

Re: Coronavirus: Concerned?
« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2020, 08:19:22 AM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

  • JoJo White
  • ****************
  • Posts: 16389
  • Tommy Points: 1769
I was doing my regular run through of stations yesterday (maybe the day before) and caught Tucker Carlson talking about transmission happening through leaky water pipes ó people in a building 10 floors away from an infected person acquiring the virus.  Sounded ridiculous to me, but made me wonder if/ how much it is easier to catch than a typical flu.  Seems that contagion is moving a lot faster SARS did and people are struggling to get over it.

Under 10,000 SARS cases 2003-4, and so far over 60,000 Coronavirus cases.   SARS appears far mor deadly though with about 10% not surviving. 

Re: Coronavirus: Concerned?
« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2020, 08:55:00 AM »

Offline Donoghus

  • Global Moderator
  • Bob Cousy
  • **************************
  • Posts: 26394
  • Tommy Points: 1254
  • What a Pub Should Be
Living in an urban center (Chicago), it has me mildly concerned given the amount of people around me and my proximity to one of the busiest airports in the world.  But it really hasn't changed my day to day at all.


2010 CB Historical Draft - Best Overall Team

Re: Coronavirus: Concerned?
« Reply #10 on: February 13, 2020, 09:38:38 AM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

  • JoJo White
  • ****************
  • Posts: 16389
  • Tommy Points: 1769
We have had confirmed cases here and also had 1 death I think, 3 infected and about hundred more under suspicion. These people came from planes from china.

From what I gather, it is less deadly (so far) than MERS and SARS but far more infectious, thus resulting in more actual deaths tham both previous coronaviruses.

Saltlover is right, the rate could go higher as a lot of the infected havent been cured yet.

Most people here are in panic, lots of misinformation going around. Doesnt help that a lot are politicizing this issue trying to use it against the government. Also, n95 mask and standard surgical mask has been out of stock here for a while now. Really a problem for our family since we have a kid and we dont want to be carrying viruses to him.

RockinRya -- Where are you?  Hope you and your family stay heathy.   I'm not worried yet, but I'm an older guy with a medical  issue which would lead me to want to avoid it -- hope it can be contained soon and an effective vaccine developed.

Re: Coronavirus: Concerned?
« Reply #11 on: February 13, 2020, 09:48:48 AM »

Offline gift

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2502
  • Tommy Points: 211
I was doing my regular run through of stations yesterday (maybe the day before) and caught Tucker Carlson talking about transmission happening through leaky water pipes ó people in a building 10 floors away from an infected person acquiring the virus.  Sounded ridiculous to me, but made me wonder if/ how much it is easier to catch than a typical flu.  Seems that contagion is moving a lot faster SARS did and people are struggling to get over it.

Under 10,000 SARS cases 2003-4, and so far over 60,000 Coronavirus cases.   SARS appears far mor deadly though with about 10% not surviving.

So it's interesting that for an individual the virus is less deadly than SARS, but from a worldwide impact Coronavirus has already been more deadly than SARS (in total numbers)? Is that right? 10k X 0.1=1k/60k X 0.02=1.2k?

Re: Coronavirus: Concerned?
« Reply #12 on: February 13, 2020, 10:16:30 AM »

Online Somebody

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5418
  • Tommy Points: 360
  • KANSEI DORIFUTO
We have had confirmed cases here and also had 1 death I think, 3 infected and about hundred more under suspicion. These people came from planes from china.

From what I gather, it is less deadly (so far) than MERS and SARS but far more infectious, thus resulting in more actual deaths tham both previous coronaviruses.

Saltlover is right, the rate could go higher as a lot of the infected havent been cured yet.

Most people here are in panic, lots of misinformation going around. Doesnt help that a lot are politicizing this issue trying to use it against the government. Also, n95 mask and standard surgical mask has been out of stock here for a while now. Really a problem for our family since we have a kid and we dont want to be carrying viruses to him.
RockinRya -- Where are you?  Hope you and your family stay heathy.   I'm not worried yet, but I'm an older guy with a medical  issue which would lead me to want to avoid it -- hope it can be contained soon and an effective vaccine developed.
I wouldn't expect a vaccine to be developed anytime soon (at least not before the situation is largely resolved). Just be vigilant and you'll likely be fine, stay safe!
Rockets PG: Westbrook, Rivers, Clemons SG: Harden, Gordon, McLemore
SF: House, Carroll, Caboclo PF: Covington, Green, Williams
C: Tucker, Hartenstein, Bender
Warriors PG: Curry, Jackson, Bowman SG: Thompson, Lee, Poole
SF: Wiggins, Okoro, Anderson PF: Green, Paschall, MKG
C: Looney, Chriss, Smiley

Re: Coronavirus: Concerned?
« Reply #13 on: February 13, 2020, 10:19:09 AM »

Online Somebody

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5418
  • Tommy Points: 360
  • KANSEI DORIFUTO
I was doing my regular run through of stations yesterday (maybe the day before) and caught Tucker Carlson talking about transmission happening through leaky water pipes ó people in a building 10 floors away from an infected person acquiring the virus.  Sounded ridiculous to me, but made me wonder if/ how much it is easier to catch than a typical flu.  Seems that contagion is moving a lot faster SARS did and people are struggling to get over it.

Under 10,000 SARS cases 2003-4, and so far over 60,000 Coronavirus cases.   SARS appears far mor deadly though with about 10% not surviving.

So it's interesting that for an individual the virus is less deadly than SARS, but from a worldwide impact Coronavirus has already been more deadly than SARS (in total numbers)? Is that right? 10k X 0.1=1k/60k X 0.02=1.2k?
Yes it has already been more deadly than SARS in terms of raw numbers. I do think that the world being more globalised nowadays than it was in '03 had a hand in the current coronavirus affecting more people though, you didn't have Chinese people flying all over the world that frequently almost two decades ago.
Rockets PG: Westbrook, Rivers, Clemons SG: Harden, Gordon, McLemore
SF: House, Carroll, Caboclo PF: Covington, Green, Williams
C: Tucker, Hartenstein, Bender
Warriors PG: Curry, Jackson, Bowman SG: Thompson, Lee, Poole
SF: Wiggins, Okoro, Anderson PF: Green, Paschall, MKG
C: Looney, Chriss, Smiley

Re: Coronavirus: Concerned?
« Reply #14 on: February 13, 2020, 10:30:03 AM »

Offline BringToughnessBack

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5006
  • Tommy Points: 575
It hard not to worry about the potential that this thing morphs into something far worse. The way it spreads so easily is a worry as well. I of course will not be planning any travels to that part of the world in the near future but there is no doubt it will spread to a degree on our side of the world as well from people who visited those impacted areas(we have seen this on small scale so far).

Life is always filled with things that can be scary and worrisome though and it will never impact the way I live my life. Yes, I am concerned but not more concerned then a crazy leader starting a big war or from someone I know falling ill to some other disease(unfortunately this has recently happened).