Whether it's right now or long term, Giannis should be the pick. The narrative of winning in sports is truly something amazing-it lead the public to view a player who posted a solid MVP caliber season in a better light than a player who posted an All-Time season by any standard except for winning a title, something that's influenced by a ton of variables out of a player's control no matter how good he is.
I don't think that's what's going on. We saw them go head to head. For 6 Games. Kawhi was better (and supposedly injured). It wasn't like the Warriors beating LeBron. Giannis was contained when it mattered. Kawhi was not.
You give me 2 identical teams. Put Giannis on one, Kawhi on the other, and have them face off in a playoff series. My money, this year, is on Kawhi's team.
The narrative that Kawhi was so much better than Giannis in that series just isn't borne out in reality. Giannis was awful scoring the ball in game 3 (though he did have 23 rebounds and 7 assists), but other than that Giannis scored at least 21 points in the other 5 games in the series. He had at least 4 assists in every game, blocked multiple shots in all but game 5 which was also the only game he didn't have at least 10 rebounds. Giannis out-rebounded, out-assisted, and out-blocked Leonard, while Leonard scored more and was the better steal generator. And let's be clear, Leonard scored more pretty much exclusively because he is a better foul shooter and was a significantly better foul shooter in that series. They shot almost identically from the field, but Leonard was 54-61 from the line while Giannis was an awful 35-60 (which was a good deal worse than the regular season).
Even on the court on the scoreboard they were nearly identical as Giannis was a + overall in the series (+10) and only had 2 - games in the series (-19 in game 4 and -2 in game 5). Leonard was only +13 in the series and like Giannis has 2 - games (the 2 losses at -4 and -19).
I think there are real arguments that Giannis was better than Leonard in the series. The Bucks were not better than the Raptors though, and that is really all that matters. The reason the Bucks lost was not Giannis it was Middleton, Brogdon, Bledsoe, Mirotic, and Ilyasova forgetting how to shoot the ball in games 3-6 of that series. If even just a couple of those players hit their normal percentages, the Bucks win that series and no one is having this discussion at all, because Giannis is just flat out better than Leonard. And I legitimately don't think it is all that close.
.518 TS % is well below league average so is .481 eFG%. And also well below Giannis season averages of .644 TS% and .599% eFG% (both incredible).
Scoring 21+ isn't impressive when you're averaging 28ppg for the season. 5 of 6 games he was below his season average. (The game is more than scoring, but they need him to score to win).
Kawhi on the other hand scored, rebounded, passed better than his season averages. While his TS% dipped a little, it was still above average. Giannis dropped on everything but rebounds. And Kawhi did this against PHI and GS too, it wasn't one just good series/matchup for him. He has consistently showed it (and for that one game against GS in '17 too, actually has Kawhi ever had a bad series or been contained since he's "arrived" as a star? ).
I'm not saying this as some slight to Giannis. Giannis is an incredible talent. It's not an insult to say somebody is better, or he's only 1b instead of 1a. Will probably go down as one of the best all time. But he did not step up in the playoffs like his team needed him too, where top end talent matters most. You can lose to a better team and be the best player (like LeBron in '15). That's not what happened here with Giannis.