Like most people I'm not expecting he will be removed from office by the Senate. The consolation prize will be that, if he serves the remainder of his term, he:
Dead in the Senate folks, be prepared. They are already looking for ways not to hold a vote to avoid this happening.
What is “this” and who are “they”?
If the Judiciary committee, the only question is how many articles they will vote on and what they will be. Oh and whether one of them will be called Bribery or Extortion. The evidence is [dang]ing; the minority in the Intelligence Committee created a noisy sideshow complaining about the process, but did not manage to cast any doubt at all on the testimony.
If the House, the only question is whether there will be any Republicans to vote for impeachment. History is watching them, as the melodramatic expression goes. Time to stand up for the Republic and our precious Constitution.
If the Senate, a vote is unavoidable, once the trial takes place - and it will take place. History may be watching, but we will certainly be watching the constituents of Collins, Gardner, Murkowski, Romney, and a couple of others.
1) cannot be pardoned when he leaves office.
2) cannot pardon anyone until then.
3) can be tried on criminal charges as an ordinary citizen.
IMO, this is almost the better outcome.
I'm not expecting it, either, to their shame. We've come to this, apparently: Republican senators placing their party's interest above the nation's. But my firm conviction is that their opportunism and cynicism will lead to the demise of the Republican Party.
As for your consolation prizes, I don't understand your 1) and 2). Predictably, if the Senate declines to remove him from office he would claim exoneration and continue as before.
Your opinion that he "can be tried on criminal charges as an ordinary citizen" being almost the better outcome is pretty much where I come down on it, with an emphasis on the "almost". The best outcome IMO is for him to be removed from office as soon as possible. His presidency has been a catastrophe for our government (the hollowing-out of our superb State Department being only one of his many depredations); and the risk of the exploding budget deficit and the trade wars to our economy pose too great a risk.
More fundamentally, we are a nation with a Constitution, and our Congress as well as our President are sworn to uphold it. Will the Congress, at least, honor their oath?
The Intelligence Committee Republicans did not even bother to dispute the testimony as to the facts of this sordid episode, opting instead to complain about secret processes, hearsay, and Hunter Biden. The president was offered the courtesy of having his attorneys present for the Judiciary Committee hearings, but he has declined. Evidently he does not intend to dispute the facts or present witnesses or documents that contradict the facts as established; indeed, he has withheld them, and despite lawful subpoenas. As a judge would tell any jury, we may infer thereby that the evidence withheld supports guilt.
An impeachment resembles an indictment, but it is not one. Impeachment is in our Constitution not to hold individuals accountable for their individual lawbreaking, but to protect the nation from the abuse of their office. The case before us is a textbook example: it is exactly what the Founders feared, and for the sake of the nation we must hold Donald Trump accountable.