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Re: Explain the Trade War with China Please
« Reply #30 on: August 05, 2019, 08:45:43 PM »

Online Neurotic Guy

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I don't understand currency manipulation and am not asking for an explanation.  I do want to understand what China's latest move to weaken its currency (do I have that right?) means with regard to the "trade war".   

Specifically, what does China's move indicate with regard to the trade war itself (I assume this escalates the fight??) and as an indicator of China's willingness to sustain the battle in the short or long term?  Does China's move suggest they are in it for the long haul?  Or is this a desperation move that indicates it might be a last gasp effort before agreeing to make a deal with the US?

China is in it for the long haul. You better believe it. Devaluation of their currency means that Chinese products just became even cheaper. US will have to increase Tariffs to get the desired effect. Weaker Chinese currency opens the Chinese market to more business and exports for China. It closes Chinese markets to more imports. It is a strong move.

Thanks for your take on this.  This is so far over my head.  I despise Trump and part of me hopes that he is exposed... but his failure is the US' failure and of course I am not for that. 

This presidency worries me terribly -- it needs to end.

Re: Explain the Trade War with China Please
« Reply #31 on: August 05, 2019, 08:54:52 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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I don't understand currency manipulation and am not asking for an explanation.  I do want to understand what China's latest move to weaken its currency (do I have that right?) means with regard to the "trade war".   

Specifically, what does China's move indicate with regard to the trade war itself (I assume this escalates the fight??) and as an indicator of China's willingness to sustain the battle in the short or long term?  Does China's move suggest they are in it for the long haul?  Or is this a desperation move that indicates it might be a last gasp effort before agreeing to make a deal with the US?

China is in it for the long haul. You better believe it. Devaluation of their currency means that Chinese products just became even cheaper. US will have to increase Tariffs to get the desired effect. Weaker Chinese currency opens the Chinese market to more business and exports for China. It closes Chinese markets to more imports. It is a strong move.

Thanks for your take on this.  This is so far over my head.  I despise Trump and part of me hopes that he is exposed... but his failure is the US' failure and of course I am not for that. 

This presidency worries me terribly -- it needs to end.
Way I look at it is the only way it ends is if the economy crashes in the next year.

Incumbents with great economies don’t really get voted out and each democratic candidate right now is pretty flawed
Quote from: George W. Bush
Too often, we judge other groups by their worst examples while judging ourselves by our best intentions.

Re: Explain the Trade War with China Please
« Reply #32 on: August 05, 2019, 08:59:24 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I don't understand currency manipulation and am not asking for an explanation.  I do want to understand what China's latest move to weaken its currency (do I have that right?) means with regard to the "trade war".   

Specifically, what does China's move indicate with regard to the trade war itself (I assume this escalates the fight??) and as an indicator of China's willingness to sustain the battle in the short or long term?  Does China's move suggest they are in it for the long haul?  Or is this a desperation move that indicates it might be a last gasp effort before agreeing to make a deal with the US?

China is in it for the long haul. You better believe it. Devaluation of their currency means that Chinese products just became even cheaper. US will have to increase Tariffs to get the desired effect. Weaker Chinese currency opens the Chinese market to more business and exports for China. It closes Chinese markets to more imports. It is a strong move.

Thanks for your take on this.  This is so far over my head.  I despise Trump and part of me hopes that he is exposed... but his failure is the US' failure and of course I am not for that. 

This presidency worries me terribly -- it needs to end.
Way I look at it is the only way it ends is if the economy crashes in the next year.

Incumbents with great economies don’t really get voted out and each democratic candidate right now is pretty flawed
Except incumbents that have very poor approval ratings in their 4 years, don't usually get re-elected. Look at G.H.W. Bush and Carter.

So you have different trends leading to different possible results. Trump is definitely in a class of his own.

Re: Explain the Trade War with China Please
« Reply #33 on: August 05, 2019, 09:24:03 PM »

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Re: Explain the Trade War with China Please
« Reply #34 on: August 19, 2019, 02:29:46 PM »

Offline heyvik

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Tariffs will now cost American households up to $1,000 per year: J.P. Morgan

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/tariffs-cost-americans-115849705.html

Quote
If the tariff increase to 25% — as President Trump has threatened — the cost to consumers would rise to $1,500 per year, J.P. Morgan stated.

“What distinguishes China Phase III tariffs from preceding tariffs is the impact to Consumption and Capital goods,” analysts wrote. While previous tariffs focused more on “intermediate goods,” this batch “suggests that the expected consumer impact should be larger in the latest round,” the bank’s analysts wrote.

Tariff costs offset gains from the tax cut
The $1,000 cost is also expected to offset the majority of the benefit that American households received from the Tax Act, the analysts added, which was around $1,300.

“The impact from reduced spending could be immediate for discretionary goods and services since tariffs are regressive,” they wrote. “Unlike the agriculture sector which is receiving subsidies/aid to offset the impact of China’s retaliatory actions, there is no simple way to compensate consumers.”

Since this move comes at a “much higher cost for the U.S. administration” ahead of a presidential election, the analysts noted that there was “a good chance they end up reversing their decision and finding a way to reach some common ground with Chinese negotiators.”

Re: Explain the Trade War with China Please
« Reply #35 on: August 19, 2019, 02:56:13 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Benevolent authoritarianism or democracy?

I had to catch myself for a second to register which country you were referring to with each side of that line...
NBA Officiating - Corrupt?  Incompetent?  Which is worse?  Does it matter?  It sucks.

Re: Explain the Trade War with China Please
« Reply #36 on: August 23, 2019, 10:12:52 AM »

Offline heyvik

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today:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-impose-tariffs-75-bn-us-imports-132825942--finance.html


China to impose new tariffs on $75 bn of US imports

Quote
Beijing (AFP) - China announced Friday it will hit US imports worth $75 billion with new tariffs as retaliation for Washington's planned tariff hikes, further intensifying the pair's bruising trade war.

The punitive tariffs of 5 to 10 percent will apply to 5,078 items from the US, starting September 1 and December 15, China's state council tariff office said.

Beijing also announced it will impose a 25 percent tariff on US autos and a 5 percent tariff on auto parts, also starting December 15.

The escalating trade war between the world's two largest economies is adding to growing fears of a possible recession in the US, with the tariffs weighing on global trade and both countries' growth.

US President Donald Trump has imposed steep tariffs on $250 billion in Chinese goods, with a further $300 billion in imports targeted for new duties in two more rounds, September 1 and December 15.

Meanwhile China has hit back with duties on around $110 billion of US goods -- or nearly all of the $120 billion worth of American goods it imported last year.

Some of those goods will now likely have their tariff rates raised even further.

The tariff hikes by the US "have led to the continuous escalation of China-US economic and trade frictions, violating the consensus reached by the two heads of state in Argentina and the consensus reached in Osaka," China's State Council Tariff Commission Office said in a statement.

"China's adoption of punitive tariff measures is forced under the pressure of US unilateralism and trade protectionism," the office said.

- 'The chosen one' -

China had lifted punitive tariffs on American cars and auto parts earlier this year as a goodwill measure while trade talks were underway.

The Dow Futures, which give a strong indication of the opening of the Dow Jones index on Wall Street, were in the green before the China announcement but plunged into the red before the official opening of the stock exchange.

Trump proclaimed himself "the Chosen One" Wednesday as he defended his trade war against China, indicating that it was his destiny to take on Beijing.

An alarm bell went off in the US Treasury bond market last week when 10-year bond yields briefly fell below the yields offered on a two-year bond -- the inverse of what normally happens.

US officials have said in recent days that trade talks with China will continue face-to-face next month.

However China's commerce ministry spokesman Gao Feng said Thursday he had no information on the next round of meetings, while noting the two sides remain in contact.

The two economic giants are squaring off in an increasing number of areas with officials and spokespeople taking daily shots at each other over trade, territorial disputes in the South China Sea, protests in Hong Kong and US actions against Chinese tech giant Huawei.

Re: Explain the Trade War with China Please
« Reply #37 on: August 23, 2019, 10:38:41 AM »

Offline angryguy77

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China uses sweat shops to make many of the products we use. You all think the ave American family paying an extra 1000 is bad? Try being the one making these products.

I'm not ridiculing anyone from buying Chinese products. We really have no choice atm. However, China should be forced to play fair and we should be encouraging products to be bought from other places if possible.

No country stays a power with a massive trade imbalance. Idk any country that became a world power by being an importer rather than exporter. Something has to be done folks, we can't live fat and happy forever.

Re: Explain the Trade War with China Please
« Reply #38 on: August 23, 2019, 11:04:18 AM »

Offline heyvik

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China uses sweat shops to make many of the products we use. You all think the ave American family paying an extra 1000 is bad? Try being the one making these products.

I'm not ridiculing anyone from buying Chinese products. We really have no choice atm. However, China should be forced to play fair and we should be encouraging products to be bought from other places if possible.

No country stays a power with a massive trade imbalance. Idk any country that became a world power by being an importer rather than exporter. Something has to be done folks, we can't live fat and happy forever.

Its one thing about being honest and upfront about who is paying for tariffs. If Trump was being transparent and ORIGINALLY said the tariffs will hurt some Americans for the long term benefit of ALL AMERICANS...okay - hard pill to swallow but what are ya gonna do - he's the president. He was (s)elected by voters.

But my stance is that he blatantly lied (knowing the outcome) and said China is paying for the tariffs - and for no good reason but to give a false illusion of himself and the scenario. Which all ties into the economy and the 2020 election - he'll do anything just for votes.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/fact-check-trump-says-china-paying-his-tariffs-he-s-n1038751

Re: Explain the Trade War with China Please
« Reply #39 on: August 23, 2019, 02:53:00 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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Honestly I have no problem with taking on China in general given the intellectual property theft and generally unfair trade practices that I think its pretty evident they engage in. The question has always been how do you do that, and I don't know that Tariffs are the right approach. Even if they are I don't think this has been handled well. Trump frames everything he does in a "this this guaranteed to be great for us, no downside, we re gonna win" sort of way. And Tariffs are much more of a mixed bag because although China gets hurt economically its ultimately American consumers who ultimately actually pay for the price hikes. And China was of course always gonna retaliate with their own tariffs which hurt American businesses particularly farmers. At some point I think tariffs should just be part of a bigger endgame (if used at all), a way to force concessions. I'm just not sure Trump has an exit strategy,.

I think its somewhat dangerous to be messing with our economic growth at the same time Great Britian is on path to go through a no deal Brexit. At some point so much disruption in trade has to have a ripple effect.

Re: Explain the Trade War with China Please
« Reply #40 on: August 23, 2019, 03:00:54 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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Honestly I have no problem with taking on China in general given the intellectual property theft and generally unfair trade practices that I think its pretty evident they engage in. The question has always been how do you do that, and I don't know that Tariffs are the right approach. Even if they are I don't think this has been handled well. Trump frames everything he does in a "this this guaranteed to be great for us, no downside, we re gonna win" sort of way. And Tariffs are much more of a mixed bag because although China gets hurt economically its ultimately American consumers who ultimately actually pay for the price hikes. And China was of course always gonna retaliate with their own tariffs which hurt American businesses particularly farmers. At some point I think tariffs should just be part of a bigger endgame (if used at all), a way to force concessions. I'm just not sure Trump has an exit strategy,.

I think its somewhat dangerous to be messing with our economic growth at the same time Great Britian is on path to go through a no deal Brexit. At some point so much disruption in trade has to have a ripple effect.

Also,  this is an issue on which the US, Japan, and Europe have largely the same interests. A president who wanted to confront China could probably line up support from the world’s largest economies and increase our leverage.  But this President finds alliances and diplomacy boring, thinks we can do it all alone. What a waste.

Re: Explain the Trade War with China Please
« Reply #41 on: August 23, 2019, 03:47:29 PM »

Offline seancally

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Related but perhaps tangential question, to any takers:

Where would the TPP have left us? My limited understanding is that it was a way to pivot to other East Asian states as trade partners, cutting out / bypassing China. We better off? No? Impossible to tell?
"The game honors toughness." - President Stevens

Re: Explain the Trade War with China Please
« Reply #42 on: August 23, 2019, 05:44:05 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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No one did anything for years folks, China has been fleecing us, stealing stuff and taking advantage by weakening their currency.  I try to avoid as much as their stuff as possible but that is not real possible.

No one wins a trade war is a saying.  I think that will be proven true.

Quote
Where would the TPP have left us? My limited understanding is that it was a way to pivot to other East Asian states as trade partners, cutting out / bypassing China. We better off? No? Impossible to tell?

Not good.

Quote
Criticism

Nobel Memorial Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman has said that "there isn't a compelling case for this deal, from either a global or a national point of view."[190]

In February 2016, United Nations' human rights expert Alfred de Zayas argued that the TPP was fundamentally flawed and was based on an outdated model of trade pacts, and that governments should not sign or ratify the TPP.[191][192] According to de Zayas, the international human rights regime imposes binding legal obligations on countries, including the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, and trade must be done under the human rights regime. Under the ISDS in the TPP, investors can sue a government, while a government cannot sue investors. De Zayas argued that this asymmetry made the system unfair. He added that international law, including accountability and transparency, must prevail over trade pacts.[191]
Currency manipulation

Some critics and even supporters of the TPP wanted the deal to contain measures that would crack down on nations who engage in alleged currency manipulation, notably China.[193] However, Daniel Drezner, professor of international politics at Tufts University, has argued that the trade deal was never likely to include restrictions on currency manipulation, as it would have restricted U.S. monetary policy.[194] Harvard economist Jeffrey Frankel has argued that the inclusion of currency manipulation language in TPP would be a mistake.[195] Frankel noted that currency manipulation would be hard to enforce (in part because it is impossible to tell whether a currency is overvalued or undervalued); "currency manipulation" can often be legitimate; China, often alleged to be a major currency manipulator, is not party to the TPP; currency manipulation accusations are often meritless; and because it would restrict U.S. monetary policy.[195]
Length and complexity

Donald Trump has criticized the TPP agreement for being too long and complicated, saying, "t’s 5,600 pages long, so complex that nobody’s read it."[196] Senator Bernie Sanders has charged that the "TPP is much more than a ‘free trade’ agreement."[197]

However, Georgetown University Professor Marc L. Busch and McGill University Professor Krzysztof J. Pelc note that modern trade deals are long and complex because they often tackle non-tariff barriers to trade, such as different standards and regulations, in addition to tariffs. Due to steadily decreasing tariff barriers since WWII, countries have become increasingly likely to enact trade barriers in the form of non-tariff barriers. National firms often lobby their own governments to enact regulations that are designed to keep out foreign firms. The TPP addresses many of these "disguised restrictions on trade" by, for instance, "basing these measures on agreed-upon science; making the process of formulating regulations more transparent; and giving foreign exporters opportunities to offer substantive input in the formulation of these measures."[198]
Secrecy of negotiations

As with many trade agreements, until being finalized, negotiations for the TPP were conducted with significant secrecy. Drafts of the agreement were kept classified during negotiations, and access to the working text was significantly restricted even for government officials and business representatives involved in the talks.[199] Despite this, some sections of TPP drafts were leaked to the public by WikiLeaks, which published an intellectual property chapter draft in 2013,[200][201] an environmental chapter draft in 2014,[202] and the final intellectual property chapter in 2014.[203]

In 2012, critics such as Public Citizen's Global Trade Watch, a consumer advocacy group, called for more open negotiations in regard to the agreement. U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk responded that he believes the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) conducted "the most engaged and transparent process as we possibly could", but that "some measure of discretion and confidentiality" are needed "to preserve negotiating strength and to encourage our partners to be willing to put issues on the table they may not otherwise."[204] He dismissed the "tension" as natural and noted that when the Free Trade Area of the Americas drafts were released, negotiators were subsequently unable to reach a final agreement.[204]

On 23 May 2012, U.S. Senator Ron Wyden, Democrat of Oregon, introduced S. 3225, which would have required the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to disclose its TPP documents to all members of Congress.[205] Had it passed, Wyden said that the bill would increase Congressional access to information about USTR activity.[206]

Michael R. Wessel, former commissioner on the U.S. Trade Deficit Review Commission claimed in May 2015 that "cleared advisors" like himself were "prohibited from sharing publicly the criticisms we’ve lodged about specific proposals and approaches". He claimed that only portions of the text had been provided, "to be read under the watchful eye of a USTR official", that access on secure government-run website did not contain the most-up-to-date information, and that for cleared advisors to get that information, he had "to travel to certain government facilities and sign in to read the materials" and "even then, the administration determines what we can and cannot review and, often, they provide carefully edited summaries rather than the actual underlying text, which is critical to really understanding the consequences of the agreement."[207]

In June 2015, U.S. Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, opposed the bill to fast-track the congressional ratification of the TPP on the basis of the trade agreement's secrecy.[208]
Industry influence

U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, has alleged that corporations and industry exert disproportionate influence on U.S. trade negotiators.[209] She asserted in July 2016 that 85% of seats on U.S. trade advisory committees were held by "senior corporation executives or industry lobbyists", and that the members of the committees "whisper in the ear" of negotiators.[209]

Michelle Ye Hee Lee, a fact-checker for The Washington Post, wrote that Warren used "misleading language" in describing the TPP. While Warren implied that "28 trade advisory committees were formed" specifically to influence the TPP, the advisory committees were actually created as part of the Trade Act of 1974; only the membership of the trade committees had changed during the Obama administration and the early phases of the TPP. Regarding Warren's claim that trade advisers secretly "whisper in the ear of our trade negotiators", Lee wrote: "while the direct meetings take place in private, committees still have to submit written reports to Congress and provide written recommendations and advice that are made public."[209] Furthermore, Lee wrote, "it is true that industry representatives make up a large number of the total membership, but it is worth noting that there is a labor committee in the second tier, labor representatives in the first tier and that the industry groups have a narrow focus (to give technical advice)."[209]

In response to criticisms about transparency and the large representation from industry representatives, USTR announced it would create a Public Interest Trade Advisory Committee.[209]
Non-compete clause

Dean Baker argued that Article 18.78, under which countries should ensure that they protect trade secrets and impose criminal procedures for violators, could be used to enforce non-compete agreements.[210] Baker points out that California's success can partly be attributed to the fact that the state did not allow for the enforcement of non-compete agreements, making it easy for tech workers to quit their jobs and start to work for another company.[210]
Criticisms from politicians and activists

In 2014, linguist and political activist Noam Chomsky warned that the TPP is "designed to carry forward the neoliberal project to maximize profit and domination, and to set the working people in the world in competition with one another so as to lower wages to increase insecurity."[211] Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) argues that trade agreements like the TPP "have ended up devastating working families and enriching large corporations."[212] Professor Robert Reich contends that the TPP is a "Trojan horse in a global race to the bottom."[213][214][215]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Pacific_Partnership

As one can see, it was not going to be a great success.    The trouble you make a treaty all parties should honor that, but how often does that happen?  Almost, never, but you'll hear of this as the media loved anything Saint Pres. Obama did and that is still the case.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2019, 05:50:08 PM by Celtics4ever »

Re: Explain the Trade War with China Please
« Reply #43 on: August 24, 2019, 07:11:08 AM »

Offline seancally

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Pacific_Partnership

As one can see, it was not going to be a great success.    The trouble you make a treaty all parties should honor that, but how often does that happen?  Almost, never, but you'll hear of this as the media loved anything Saint Pres. Obama did and that is still the case.

Take your point, but for what it’s worth, in your post you only quoted the TPP criticism from the Wiki article and none of the support.

I don’t care about the secrecy around it. Governments negotiate quietly; we can’t have our position/concessions leak to the press and undermine leverage. Also don’t really care much about Senators’ opinions, especially Sanders and Warren, since they’ll take any opportunity to bash corporations and industry as part their presidential brand. Of course industry will exert pressure in trade deals.

That said, anyone with some additional background / context want to weigh in? I can read Wikipedia.
"The game honors toughness." - President Stevens

Re: Explain the Trade War with China Please
« Reply #44 on: August 24, 2019, 07:44:25 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Take your point, but for what it’s worth, in your post you only quoted the TPP criticism from the Wiki article and none of the support.


I can post tons more, like I said most of these treaties are predicted on the naive notion that people will play by the rules which often does not happen.    Look at the Russians who were violating the IMF treaty and already had the new missile.  Ditto, for Iran with the nuclear weapons.   People will always game the system and China and Russia want to be numero uno and want us to fade.   

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/how-to-tell-tpp-is-a-bad_b_8914388

https://www.ecowatch.com/what-is-the-tpp-and-why-is-it-so-bad-1882047270.html

https://time.com/4065267/trans-pacific-partnership-american-workers/

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/nov/13/trans-pacific-paternership-intellectual-property

Now if Liberal papers are saying it is a bad deal it must be, because they totally supported President Obama.   Finding conservative, stuff is all too easy, as they are usually critical of Pres. Obama.

Here is part of the treaty

https://wikileaks.org/tpp/pressrelease.html

Anything kept that secret, and they try to ram through fast is generally not good.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2019, 07:49:50 AM by Celtics4ever »

 

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