I think this all depends on what people are expecting each player's PPG to be at. Is each guy expected to average 20 PPG? Is Kemba supposed to average 25 PPG and Jaylen 15 PPG?
My prediction for next year is:
Kemba: 23 ppg
Tatum: 21 ppg
Hayward: 17 ppg
Brown: 16 ppg
But in that scenario, I don't really see anyone taking a scoring sacrifice.
Hmm, I don’t know how feasible that spread is, especially considering we have other capable role players on our team like Smart and Kanter. Looking at previous champs’ points leaders spread:
2012 Heat: 27, 22, 18, 10
2013 Heat: 26, 21, 17, 11
2014 Spurs: 17, 15, 13, 12 (11, 10, 9)
2015 Warriors: 24, 22, 12, 10 (10)
2016 Cavs: 25, 20, 16, 12
*2016 Warriors: 30, 22, 14, 12
2017 Warriors: 25, 25, 22, 10
2018 Warriors: 26, 26, 20, 11
2019 Raptors: 27, 17, 15, 14
*2019 Warriors: 27, 26, 21, 7
The Spurs were pretty crazy having their spread like that but I guess when you have a team of old guys in Parker/Duncan/Ginobili alongside just 1 prospect in Kawhi, guys don’t mind having shots taken away from them.
The 2015 Warriors were interesting too, although one of the 10ppg scorers was Barnes who left in FA.
The 2016 Cavs is probably the most balanced it gets, with Lebron scoring 25 (not hard to imagine Kemba scoring about 23-25) and Kyrie scoring 20 (not hard to imagine Tatum making that leap). Love scored at 16ppg, which would be probably where Hayward could slot in, albeit a little underutilized imo. But at 12ppg, how happy would Brown be in his contract year?
But with your spread, that’s about 80ppg across 4 players, give or take. And again, guys like Smart and Kanter are probably gonna have to average close to 10ppg. Kanter’s a strong candidate for a double double at any given night, especially since he’ll likely get a bunch of minutes with us. So the 2 of them will probably split 20-25ppg.
And if the rest of the rotation (assuming 3-4 more guys out of a 9-10 player rotation) average about 5-6 ppg each (Theis averages 6ppg and he’s barely a rotational player), then that’s another 15-20ppg.
How many points will the C’s average a night? Around 120? That puts us pretty much top of the league (last year we only averaged 112). It’s possible but I don’t know if it’s likely. I think what’s more likely is that the 4th guy (Brown?) has to average closer to 10ppg kinda like Smart/Kanter than he is to 20ppg (like presumably Walker/Tatum).