Kyrie opt out deadline in 2-3 days right?
Yes. Thursday, June 13, is the opt-out deadline for Kyrie and Baynes.
Tuesday, June 18, is the opt-out deadline for Al Horford.
Thursday, June 20, of course, is the draft.
Kyrie will almost certainly opt-out on Thursday, given that he stands to make about 10M more next year no matter where he signs.
A key factor that folks need to remember that probably play into Kyrie's "long term plan" is that he will be eligible for the 10-year veteran max base contract of 35% of cap in two years. He's currently only eligible for 30%.
What that means is no matter where he goes, he will want to sign a new contract in either 2 or 3 years.
If he stays in Boston, then he'd want to sign a new contract in 2 years and at that time, probably try to lock up a 5-year max Bird Right's contract that will pay him max money through his age 33 season.
If he goes to another team, he will need to wait 3 years before signing the big new contract because he will need to be with that team for 3 years to vest his Bird rights. However, on this path, a 5-year will pay him on a max deal through his age 34 season.
Interestingly, unless he thinks he will still be able to command a close-to-max contract after his age 33 season, he can actually make more total money in his career through age 34 if he waits 3 years before signing that 5-year deal.
Also: Kyrie has stated that he plans to retire in his early 30s. Let's assume age 34 is the goal.
What that boils down to, is this: If his goal is to rack up max earnings by that point, he doesn't necessarily make more by staying in Boston.
Here are the three paths:
Top total earnings: Sign 3 year deal in BOS followed by 5 year in BOS, retire after age 34 season.
Second place: Sign 3 years for Team X followed by 5 years with Team X, retire after age 34 season.
Third place: Sign 2 years in BOS followed by 5 year in BOS, retire after age 33.
Of these, the first two are actually fairly close, only a couple million apart. The only difference in the two is the difference in raises (8% vs 5% byc) in years 2 & 3 of the first contract. That totals to only about 2 million. Other than that, they are the same.
The third one stays close to the second as of age 33 and then falls way behind due to the massive ~45M-ish salary in that age 34 season that the 2nd path has. In theory, Kyrie could still get another contract at age 34 to make up some of that, but it's doubtful it would be close to a full max contract at that age.
Short version: People who think total earnings favor Kyrie staying in BOS should realize that it just isn't really that big of an advantage. BOS only gets an advantage here if Kyrie is worried about his knees and doesn't have the confidence that he'll be able to command a max contract in 2 or 3 years in his age 28 or 29 season. If that's the case, then he's best off just signing a 5-year deal right now.
Of course, if he's worried about his knees so as to do that ... then I'm not so keen that we should be paying that...