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C's must get bigger gamble trade
« on: June 01, 2019, 01:55:26 PM »

Offline wiley

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--------If we go young (no AD, KI, etc...)-------

The Celtics need to get bigger in any case, but if we land AD that is obviously less true.  But, if not AD, then what? 

The following trade is partly lateral, partly back up a bit, kind a "rebuild light", and a way to get bigger.

One way is to draft bigs in this year's draft, but there is some risk quality wise given our draft position.

The Grizzlies are behind us, so they don't mind all the picks they get in this deal.  And can trade Conley afterwards if they want...

THE DEAL:

Tatum, Memphis pick, pick 14         for
Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant

I think that the Memphis pick plus pick 14 is enough for Morant, given next year's awesome looking draft.
(Danny would really have to like Morant to do this trade.) 


Conley, Bradley, Tatum, Rabb, Valanciunas        bench:  Brooks, Anderson, Parsons, pick 14, Memphis pick next year)

Morant, Smart, Brown, JJJ, Horford           bench:  Hayward, (rozier), Ojeleye, Yabu, RW, Baynes, picks 20 and 22.


This trade obviously brings up the debate about Tatum verses JJJ.  Just forget about that for a moment and consider them equal.   

IF they are equal value wise, do you make this trade?  Or do you keep pick 14 and Memphis pick and just do the positional swap of Tatum for JJJ with no picks and no Morant?

I would do the trade if I knew that JJJ was equal to Tatum as a prospect (I don't know this).
As a way for the Celtics to start getting bigger with quality bigs.

Not worried about Horford's age.  He can play another 4 years for the Celtics.  Plenty of time to improve.
with pick 20 and 22 I take guys ready to contribute with IQ and defense:  Thybulle, PJ Washington, etc...

edit:  it is my opinion that Memphis is not ready to turn it around (like Sacramento this year).  they will be in the lottery for two more years imo.  So getting their pick back should be a big deal for them if this is correct (they would have to perceive that as well, which makes this kind of trade hard, such they'll surely just take Morant instead of taking pick 14 plus their own pick back)
« Last Edit: June 01, 2019, 02:05:22 PM by wiley »
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Re: C's must get bigger gamble trade
« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2019, 02:40:34 PM »

Offline footey

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Memphis says no way Jose
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Re: C's must get bigger gamble trade
« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2019, 02:46:20 PM »

Offline wiley

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Quote from: footey on June 01, 2019, 02:40:34 PM
Memphis says no way Jose

I agree with you, because taking back their own pick would be like a semi-admission that they will be bad.  In fact it even incentivizes them to go for the 7th pick (if they don't totally crap into top 6 picks ...the protected area).  JJJ is probably near untouchable for them.  And Morant is the present and exciting new toy.

I'm looking forward to the Memphis pick for the C's though!!   It's a ways off but I think we're going to land a major stud. 
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Re: C's must get bigger gamble trade
« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2019, 03:14:42 PM »

Offline Who

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I'd be happy to trade Tatum straight up for Jaren Jackson.

Jackson can be a high level two way big man. An All-League defender with 20ppg offense. Dodgy rebounder but strong enough on both ends to overcome that. Having a big man like that would make things a lot easier to build a team around. Perfect for Stevens offensive system too.
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Re: C's must get bigger gamble trade
« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2019, 04:28:35 PM »

RazzelnoDazzel

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If I was in the Grizzlies situation I’d definitely not do this. Ja and jjj are great for the position they are in. There is no need to rush their rebuild.
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Re: C's must get bigger gamble trade
« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2019, 04:34:55 PM »

Offline RPGenerate

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Memphis hangs up the phone. Like... Why would they do this? JJJ and Morant are gonna be the pieces they build their team around.
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Re: C's must get bigger gamble trade
« Reply #6 on: June 01, 2019, 04:47:00 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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the specifics in wiley's post are secondary to his main point, which is a good one.

if the many ad naseum trade proposals for AD and durant do not work out, and, kyrie runs off to another team, do the celtics deploy some of their impressive assets elsewhere? perhaps give up the "veteran" route and instead go young as wiley suggests?

perhaps ainge sees another tatum or brown in this draft after the first two picks. if so, does he move to get that player? maybe the knicks or whomever value quantity over quality, or dont see the talent the same way as ainge does.

i expect some sort of trade on draft night by the celtics, though what it will be is beyond me.
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Re: C's must get bigger gamble trade
« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2019, 04:55:10 PM »

RazzelnoDazzel

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Quote from: hwangjini_1 on June 01, 2019, 04:47:00 PM
the specifics in wiley's post are secondary to his main point, which is a good one.

if the many ad naseum trade proposals for AD and durant do not work out, and, kyrie runs off to another team, do the celtics deploy some of their impressive assets elsewhere? perhaps give up the "veteran" route and instead go young as wiley suggests?

perhaps ainge sees another tatum or brown in this draft after the first two picks. if so, does he move to get that player? maybe the knicks or whomever value quantity over quality, or dont see the talent the same way as ainge does.

i expect some sort of trade on draft night by the celtics, though what it will be is beyond me.

Yes his main point I agree with as I’ve been preaching that and the fact the Celtics have 1 too many wings are legitimate problems. If an article I read is correct and the Celtics are looking to build around Tatum and Brown (mainly) then they need a PG and and Center WITHOUT ridding themselves of Tatum and Brown. So your not going to get an established big you are looking for potential at this point. The team that comes to mind is Magic. They have Bamba who was battling some injuries and didn’t play as much, they also have Fultz who is in the same position. One of which would be what the Celtics would gamble without sacrificing much for them.

Much meaning they have Smart, All draft picks, TimeLord (maybe), as trade assets. Hayward has an extremely low rate of being traded unless there is someone they are targeting that the salaries have to match for and I don’t see this likely happening. And with Smart being 1st team all defense his stock just risen, not to mention he can run PG at times as well as guard 1-4. You may be surprised what we can get for him. I wouldn’t be surprised if Danny got Myles Turner for Smart, Rob 3, and 14th.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2019, 05:06:51 PM by RazzelnoDazzel »
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Re: C's must get bigger gamble trade
« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2019, 05:16:31 PM »

Offline Pvictor11

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I think Memphis blocks Danny's number after such proposal
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Re: C's must get bigger gamble trade
« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2019, 07:21:35 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Are you guys just super low on Tatum or super high on Jorah Mormont?
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Re: C's must get bigger gamble trade
« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2019, 07:26:03 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Quote from: Who on June 01, 2019, 03:14:42 PM
I'd be happy to trade Tatum straight up for Jaren Jackson.

Jackson can be a high level two way big man. An All-League defender with 20ppg offense. Dodgy rebounder but strong enough on both ends to overcome that. Having a big man like that would make things a lot easier to build a team around. Perfect for Stevens offensive system too.
If Jackson has a higher ceiling than Tatum, then everyone should promptly lower their expectations for that Memphis pick.  This will be Sacramento all over again.

Jackson - all-star/superstar potential (if better than Tatum)

Jorah Mormont - Supposedly the consensus top guard in this draft

Then they tank again this year, get another top-level talent...   

2020-21 season:  Jackson will be in his 3rd season (Hield-level leap ability), Jorah will be in his 2nd season (D'Aaron Fox all over again), and the 2020 top 5 pick could be their Marvin Bagley Jr...  could totally see them playing out of the bottom 10. 

In which case, if you're talking about giving up Tatum, #14 (trash) and the Memphis pick (trash 2.0)... then you're really just talking about trading Tatum for Jackson and Mormont.
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Re: C's must get bigger gamble trade
« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2019, 07:31:27 PM »

RazzelnoDazzel

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Quote from: LarBrd33 on June 01, 2019, 07:26:03 PM
Quote from: Who on June 01, 2019, 03:14:42 PM
I'd be happy to trade Tatum straight up for Jaren Jackson.

Jackson can be a high level two way big man. An All-League defender with 20ppg offense. Dodgy rebounder but strong enough on both ends to overcome that. Having a big man like that would make things a lot easier to build a team around. Perfect for Stevens offensive system too.
If Jackson has a higher ceiling than Tatum, then everyone should promptly lower their expectations for that Memphis pick.  This will be Sacramento all over again.

Jackson - all-star/superstar potential (if better than Tatum)

Jorah Mormont - Supposedly the consensus top guard in this draft

Then they tank again this year, get another top-level talent...   

2020-21 season:  Jackson will be in his 3rd season (Hield-level leap ability), Jorah will be in his 2nd season (D'Aaron Fox all over again), and the 2020 top 5 pick could be their Marvin Bagley Jr...  could totally see them playing out of the bottom 10. 

In which case, if you're talking about giving up Tatum, #14 (trash) and the Memphis pick (trash 2.0)... then you're really just talking about trading Tatum for Jackson and Mormont.

No matter what way you flip it it would be a bad move for Memphis. They need jjj for his defense as well as his scoring. Trading him for anyone at this point would be a lateral movement for them. Trading away jjj and ja would be a step in the wrong direction. They are building assets right now. They are in 0 position to rush their rebuild they can just run another season with JJJ to build his value even more for a bigger target later.

And I also don’t value any 1st round pick as trash, especially a lottery pick. With the way these rules are now even the 14th pick has a chance to fly to 3rd.
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Re: C's must get bigger gamble trade
« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2019, 07:37:21 PM »

Offline Who

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Quote from: LarBrd33 on June 01, 2019, 07:21:35 PM
Are you guys just super low on Tatum or super high on Jorah Mormont?

I look at Ja Morant as a likely franchise player. A guy who your whole ball club is going to revolve around. 

A level above both Tatum and Jaren Jackson. I view Jackson and Tatum as building blocks who may or may not (lower likelihood) of become franchise talents (in other words, All-Star talents with possibility of becoming but not expectation of becoming a top 10 player in league).

As for the initial trade idea -- it's enough for one of those two guys but not both of them. And I am not sure it is enough to get Morant. It is far far too little for both.
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Re: C's must get bigger gamble trade
« Reply #13 on: June 01, 2019, 07:53:43 PM »

Online Roy H.

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think that the Memphis pick plus pick 14 is enough for Morant, given next year's awesome looking draft.
(Danny would really have to like Morant to do this trade.) 

I think you may be way off on this.  Let's say that Memphis regresses a bit, but the pick conveys at #7.  Is #14 in a weak draft and #7 in a good one worth Morant?  And that's without even considering that Memphis could end up like Sacramento, making a sneaky playoff run.

I think Morant would be a top-five prospect in almost any draft, so I think the value proposition is a bit off.
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Re: C's must get bigger gamble trade
« Reply #14 on: June 01, 2019, 08:10:42 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Quote from: Roy H. on June 01, 2019, 07:53:43 PM
Quote
think that the Memphis pick plus pick 14 is enough for Morant, given next year's awesome looking draft.
(Danny would really have to like Morant to do this trade.) 

I think you may be way off on this.  Let's say that Memphis regresses a bit, but the pick conveys at #7.  Is #14 in a weak draft and #7 in a good one worth Morant?  And that's without even considering that Memphis could end up like Sacramento, making a sneaky playoff run.

I think Morant would be a top-five prospect in almost any draft, so I think the value proposition is a bit off.

The #14 pick probably has as much trade value as the #16 pick in 2015...

If we combine the Memphis pick with it, in addition to 2 more 1st round picks (#20 + #22), we can probably get the team with the #10 pick to turn us down.
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