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Trump Tweets Lies About Iran Deal
« on: July 11, 2019, 10:18:07 AM »

Offline indeedproceed

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Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump's Wednesday tweet on the Iran nuclear deal contained three inaccurate claims.
"Iran has long been secretly 'enriching,' in total violation of the terrible 150 Billion Dollar deal made by John Kerry and the Obama Administration," Trump tweeted. "Remember, that deal was to expire in a short number of years."
Facts First: All three parts of this tweet are wrong. International nuclear monitors and Trump's own intelligence officials say Iran complied until recently with the agreement's limits on its enrichment activities. Trump exaggerated the amount of money Iran gained access to because of the agreement. And he mischaracterized the deal by saying the whole thing would soon "expire."
Let's go through the claims one by one.

No evidence Iran was secretly enriching
There is no public evidence to support Trump's claim that Iran "has long been secretly 'enriching.'" The claim has been contradicted by the International Atomic Energy Agency, whose monitors were tasked with ensuring that Iran was complying with the terms of the 2015 deal, as well as by independent experts and by Trump's own top intelligence officials.
Iran announced this week that it was breaching a limit on uranium enrichment set by the agreement. But there was no evidence Iran had broken its enrichment promises under the agreement until now, much less that it had "long" done so.
"There is absolutely no truth to that statement. Iran has not, repeat not, been enriching in secret," said Gary Sick, an Iran expert who served on the National Security Council under Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.
Trump withdrew the US from the multi-country agreement, formally the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in May 2018. According to public comments from Trump's intelligence officials and the IAEA, Iran continued to comply with the enrichment provisions of the agreement, and the rest of the agreement's provisions, for the next year.
The agreement limited Iran, for 15 years, to enriching uranium to a maximum of a 3.67% concentration of a fissile isotope called U-235. That is a U-235 level suitable for use in a nuclear reactor but far from the approximately 90% suitable for use in a nuclear weapon.
As of this spring, the IAEA certified that Iran was still complying with the 3.67% limit. In a May 31 report, the IAEA again said: "Iran has not enriched uranium above 3.67% U-235."
In January, US Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and Central Intelligence Agency director Gina Haspel, both of whom Trump appointed, told the Senate Intelligence Committee that Iran kept abiding by the terms of the agreement even after the US withdrew.
Brett McGurk, who served as anti-ISIS special envoy under Trump and Barack Obama and before that as a Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iraq and Iran, cast doubt on Trump's claim in his own tweets on Wednesday. Noting that Trump's assertion was "totally contrary to the unanimous assessment of our own intelligence community" earlier in the year, he said it was "likely to further undermine American credibility in these partner capitals."
Trump, of course, has access to secret intelligence we do not. But he has presented no proof whatsoever that his top intelligence appointees and international experts have been incorrect.

Trump's $150 billion figure is too high
Trump has repeatedly claimed that the agreement involved a $150 billion payment the US made to Iran. He was a little vaguer than usual this time, but his claim that this was a "150 Billion Dollar deal" was still inaccurate.
The US did not pay Iran even tens of billions of American dollars in the agreement. Rather, the US agreed to unfreeze a significant sum of Iran's assets that had been frozen in international financial institutions, predominantly outside the US, because of sanctions against Iran.
Trump did not invent the $150 billion figure out of thin air: Obama himself mused in a 2015 interview about Iran having "$150 billion parked outside the country." But experts on Iran policy, and Obama's own administration, said that the quantity of assets the agreement actually made available to Iran was much lower.
In 2015, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew put the number at $56 billion. PolitiFact reported that Garbis Iradian, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, put it at about $60 billion, and that Nader Habibi, professor of economics of the Middle East at Brandeis University, thought it was between $25 billion and $50 billion after discussing the issue with officials at Iran's Central Bank.
Adam Szubin, a senior Treasury Department official, testified to Congress in 2015 that the "usable liquid assets" would total "a little more than $50 billion." The rest of Iran's foreign assets, he said, were either tied up in "illiquid" projects "that cannot be monetized quickly, if at all, or are composed of outstanding loans to Iranian entities that cannot repay them."

The agreement wouldn't have expired soon
Trump could have accurately said that some central provisions of the agreement would have expired in the next 10 to 15 years. But the deal as a whole -- including a blanket prohibition on Iran developing nuclear weapons -- was written to continue in perpetuity.
"It's not accurate to say the deal expires," said Naysan Rafati, Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group. "Certain clauses of the deal expire and a lot of the key clauses don't expire."
The deal includes important sunset clauses. Its limits on the number of first-generation centrifuges Iran can possess, and on the research and development of more advanced centrifuges, are scheduled to end in 2025. The 3.67% uranium purity limit is to end in 2030.
So is the 300-kilogram limit on Iran's stockpile of low-enriched uranium, which Iran said last week it has now broken. And so is the ban on building a new heavy-water reactor and on reprocessing spent fuel, which effectively bars Iran from developing a plutonium weapon.

However, some of the limits in the deal extend past 2030 -- and some do not expire at all. Centrifuge production sites are to be under continuous surveillance until 2035. Iran's uranium mines and mills are to be monitored until 2040.
Other provisions were written to be in place in perpetuity. For example, Iran is permanently required to provide advance notice of plans to build a nuclear facility. Iran promised that it will not "ever" seek a nuclear weapon. And IAEA monitoring of Iran's nuclear activities is to continue indefinitely.

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Re: Trump Tweets Lies About Iran Deal
« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2019, 10:50:32 AM »

Offline heyvik

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Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump's Wednesday tweet on the Iran nuclear deal contained three inaccurate claims.
"Iran has long been secretly 'enriching,' in total violation of the terrible 150 Billion Dollar deal made by John Kerry and the Obama Administration," Trump tweeted. "Remember, that deal was to expire in a short number of years."
Facts First: All three parts of this tweet are wrong. International nuclear monitors and Trump's own intelligence officials say Iran complied until recently with the agreement's limits on its enrichment activities. Trump exaggerated the amount of money Iran gained access to because of the agreement. And he mischaracterized the deal by saying the whole thing would soon "expire."
Let's go through the claims one by one.

No evidence Iran was secretly enriching
There is no public evidence to support Trump's claim that Iran "has long been secretly 'enriching.'" The claim has been contradicted by the International Atomic Energy Agency, whose monitors were tasked with ensuring that Iran was complying with the terms of the 2015 deal, as well as by independent experts and by Trump's own top intelligence officials.
Iran announced this week that it was breaching a limit on uranium enrichment set by the agreement. But there was no evidence Iran had broken its enrichment promises under the agreement until now, much less that it had "long" done so.
"There is absolutely no truth to that statement. Iran has not, repeat not, been enriching in secret," said Gary Sick, an Iran expert who served on the National Security Council under Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.
Trump withdrew the US from the multi-country agreement, formally the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in May 2018. According to public comments from Trump's intelligence officials and the IAEA, Iran continued to comply with the enrichment provisions of the agreement, and the rest of the agreement's provisions, for the next year.
The agreement limited Iran, for 15 years, to enriching uranium to a maximum of a 3.67% concentration of a fissile isotope called U-235. That is a U-235 level suitable for use in a nuclear reactor but far from the approximately 90% suitable for use in a nuclear weapon.
As of this spring, the IAEA certified that Iran was still complying with the 3.67% limit. In a May 31 report, the IAEA again said: "Iran has not enriched uranium above 3.67% U-235."
In January, US Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and Central Intelligence Agency director Gina Haspel, both of whom Trump appointed, told the Senate Intelligence Committee that Iran kept abiding by the terms of the agreement even after the US withdrew.
Brett McGurk, who served as anti-ISIS special envoy under Trump and Barack Obama and before that as a Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iraq and Iran, cast doubt on Trump's claim in his own tweets on Wednesday. Noting that Trump's assertion was "totally contrary to the unanimous assessment of our own intelligence community" earlier in the year, he said it was "likely to further undermine American credibility in these partner capitals."
Trump, of course, has access to secret intelligence we do not. But he has presented no proof whatsoever that his top intelligence appointees and international experts have been incorrect.

Trump's $150 billion figure is too high
Trump has repeatedly claimed that the agreement involved a $150 billion payment the US made to Iran. He was a little vaguer than usual this time, but his claim that this was a "150 Billion Dollar deal" was still inaccurate.
The US did not pay Iran even tens of billions of American dollars in the agreement. Rather, the US agreed to unfreeze a significant sum of Iran's assets that had been frozen in international financial institutions, predominantly outside the US, because of sanctions against Iran.
Trump did not invent the $150 billion figure out of thin air: Obama himself mused in a 2015 interview about Iran having "$150 billion parked outside the country." But experts on Iran policy, and Obama's own administration, said that the quantity of assets the agreement actually made available to Iran was much lower.
In 2015, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew put the number at $56 billion. PolitiFact reported that Garbis Iradian, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, put it at about $60 billion, and that Nader Habibi, professor of economics of the Middle East at Brandeis University, thought it was between $25 billion and $50 billion after discussing the issue with officials at Iran's Central Bank.
Adam Szubin, a senior Treasury Department official, testified to Congress in 2015 that the "usable liquid assets" would total "a little more than $50 billion." The rest of Iran's foreign assets, he said, were either tied up in "illiquid" projects "that cannot be monetized quickly, if at all, or are composed of outstanding loans to Iranian entities that cannot repay them."

The agreement wouldn't have expired soon
Trump could have accurately said that some central provisions of the agreement would have expired in the next 10 to 15 years. But the deal as a whole -- including a blanket prohibition on Iran developing nuclear weapons -- was written to continue in perpetuity.
"It's not accurate to say the deal expires," said Naysan Rafati, Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group. "Certain clauses of the deal expire and a lot of the key clauses don't expire."
The deal includes important sunset clauses. Its limits on the number of first-generation centrifuges Iran can possess, and on the research and development of more advanced centrifuges, are scheduled to end in 2025. The 3.67% uranium purity limit is to end in 2030.
So is the 300-kilogram limit on Iran's stockpile of low-enriched uranium, which Iran said last week it has now broken. And so is the ban on building a new heavy-water reactor and on reprocessing spent fuel, which effectively bars Iran from developing a plutonium weapon.

However, some of the limits in the deal extend past 2030 -- and some do not expire at all. Centrifuge production sites are to be under continuous surveillance until 2035. Iran's uranium mines and mills are to be monitored until 2040.
Other provisions were written to be in place in perpetuity. For example, Iran is permanently required to provide advance notice of plans to build a nuclear facility. Iran promised that it will not "ever" seek a nuclear weapon. And IAEA monitoring of Iran's nuclear activities is to continue indefinitely.

I wish this got more publicity - both here on CelticsStrong and in the news cycle. The US pulls out of a deal that all sides were complying with, so that you can impose much more stricter sanctions on Iran. Iran is either forced to pull out of the deal themselves or comply and look weak/have its own people revolt due to worse conditions.
This will get resolved in 1 of 2 ways:
1 - Trump will continue to talk tough, make tough promises, then back off. He'll say 'I' saved war with Iran (basically create a crisis with crazy talk, then back off and look like the level headed one in the room)
2 - Bolton will get his wish and get a regime change in late 2019 with a war that will last for 3-4 years.  Creating ANOTHER nation in the Middle East that hates the US.

Re: Trump Tweets Lies About Iran Deal
« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2019, 06:19:21 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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No evidence Iran was secretly enriching
There is no public evidence to support Trump's claim that Iran "has long been secretly 'enriching.'" The claim has been contradicted by the International Atomic Energy Agency, whose monitors were tasked with ensuring that Iran was complying with the terms of the 2015 deal, as well as by independent experts and by Trump's own top intelligence officials.
Iran announced this week that it was breaching a limit on uranium enrichment set by the agreement. But there was no evidence Iran had broken its enrichment promises under the agreement until now, much less that it had "long" done so.
"There is absolutely no truth to that statement. Iran has not, repeat not, been enriching in secret," said Gary Sick, an Iran expert who served on the National Security Council under Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.
Trump withdrew the US from the multi-country agreement, formally the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, in May 2018. According to public comments from Trump's intelligence officials and the IAEA, Iran continued to comply with the enrichment provisions of the agreement, and the rest of the agreement's provisions, for the next year.
The agreement limited Iran, for 15 years, to enriching uranium to a maximum of a 3.67% concentration of a fissile isotope called U-235. That is a U-235 level suitable for use in a nuclear reactor but far from the approximately 90% suitable for use in a nuclear weapon.
As of this spring, the IAEA certified that Iran was still complying with the 3.67% limit. In a May 31 report, the IAEA again said: "Iran has not enriched uranium above 3.67% U-235."
In January, US Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and Central Intelligence Agency director Gina Haspel, both of whom Trump appointed, told the Senate Intelligence Committee that Iran kept abiding by the terms of the agreement even after the US withdrew.
Brett McGurk, who served as anti-ISIS special envoy under Trump and Barack Obama and before that as a Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iraq and Iran, cast doubt on Trump's claim in his own tweets on Wednesday. Noting that Trump's assertion was "totally contrary to the unanimous assessment of our own intelligence community" earlier in the year, he said it was "likely to further undermine American credibility in these partner capitals."
Trump, of course, has access to secret intelligence we do not. But he has presented no proof whatsoever that his top intelligence appointees and international experts have been incorrect.

Your naivety is sweet.   But I trust the Mossad as a top notch intelligence agency.  Much of this depends on your news sources but think about this Iran has threatened to destroy Israel so they have a vested interest to have good intelligence on this matter.  One thing is clear a lot of people on this board never did military intelligence or have no fathom of it unless it meets their political bias.

Quote
In a May 2012 speech to a defense gathering in Tehran, Iran's Military Chief of Staff declared: "The Iranian nation is standing for its cause and that is the full annihilation of Israel."[166]

In August 2012, Brigadier General Gholam Reza Jalali, who heads Iran's Passive Defense Organization, said ahead of Al-Quds Day that Israel must be destroyed, saying, "[Al-Quds Day] is a reflection of the fact that no other way exists apart from resolve and strength to completely eliminate the aggressive nature and to destroy Israel."[43][120][121]

In August 2012, a senior cleric and Tehran's provisional Friday Prayers Leader Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, speaking about Qods Day, called for the annihilation of the "Zionist regime," emphasizing that the spread of the "Islamic Awakening" in the Middle East "heralds annihilation of the Zionist regime."[119]

In January 2013, Iran warned that any Israeli attack on Syria would be treated the same as an attack on Iran.[172] After Israel attacked Syria, Iran simply stated that Israel would "regret this recent aggression".[173]

In March 2015, the commander of the Basij militia of Iran's Revolutionary Guards said that "erasing Israel off the map is not negotiable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_relations

So with that in mind here is some evidence, that some may have seen but you can bet the media won't share it because they don't like President Trump and we all know that some on the left don't like Israel of the Jewish People.

Quote
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday accused Iran of conducting a secret nuclear weapons programme, dubbed Project Amad, and said it had continued to pursue nuclear weapons knowledge after the project was shuttered in 2003.

That followed the revelation in 2002 by an exiled Iranian opposition group that Iran was constructing secret nuclear sites in breach of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, of which Iran was a signatory.

Mr Netanyahu presented what he said was evidence of thousands of "secret nuclear files" that showed Iran had lied about its nuclear ambitions before the deal was signed in 2015.

Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters on Monday that Israel's intelligence agency Mossad had obtained 55,000 pages of evidence and a further 55,000 files on 183 CDs relating to Project Amad.

A senior Israeli official told the New York Times that the agency first discovered the warehouse in southern Tehran in February 2016, and put the building under surveillance.

In January, intelligence agents managed to break into the property in the middle of the night, remove the original documents and smuggle them back into Israel the same night, the official told the paper.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43958205

Credible Sources:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/15/us/politics/iran-israel-mossad-nuclear.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2018/04/30/israeli_pm_netanyahu_reveals_proof_of_secret_iranian_nuclear_program.html

Actual Intelligence brief that shows they had a hidden site, still working

Quote
Documentation seized in January 2018 by Israel from the Iranian “Nuclear Archive”3 revealed key elements of Iran’s past nuclear weaponization program and the Amad program more broadly, aimed at development and production of nuclear weapons. The material extracted from the archives4 shows that the Amad program had the intention to build five nuclear warhead systems for missile delivery.5 A key step in the manufacturing of a nuclear warhead is the production of the fissile material components of a nuclear warhead. Such a facility would turn high enriched uranium hexafluoride (UF6) to uranium metal, cast it, and machine components to their final forms to be assembled in the warhead itself. Iran had a long quest to acquire uranium metal handling capabilities and some documentation related to such activities was found during the IAEA investigations into Iran’s past nuclear weapons program.6 Newly found material in the archives sheds more light on Iran’s goal of achieving a nuclear weapons capability within a short period of time, and provides key insights for today if Iran decided to renege on its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) not to build nuclear weapons

http://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/a-key-missing-piece-of-the-amad-puzzle/8

So much for the no evidence and I have news for you  Minister Benjamin Netanyahu statement was on youtube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=_qBt4tSCALA

text version

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/full-text-netanyahu-s-reveals-iran-s-atomic-archive-in-speech-1.6045556

As many know I am ex-military and I worked some in the S-2/S-3 in the US army.  I also had a Clearance of TS.   When Mossad talks the US intelligence agencies listen.

Quote
I wish this got more publicity

Oh, you're for spreading half facts and misinformation and half baked reporting????  Pres. Trump lies, but so does the media.   So do intelligence agencies but Israel will have to have facts to justify a strike if Iran gets nuclear weapons so forgive me if I believe then over CNN

Re: Trump Tweets Lies About Iran Deal
« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2019, 06:48:24 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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and we all know that some on the left don't like Israel of the Jewish People.

Wowzers is this where we’re at now? Awesome.

"You've gotta respect a 15-percent 3-point shooter. A guy
like that is always lethal." - Evan 'The God' Turner

Re: Trump Tweets Lies About Iran Deal
« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2019, 07:00:38 PM »

Offline liam

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and we all know that some on the left don't like Israel of the Jewish People.

Wowzers is this where we’re at now? Awesome.

I think it's these dudes who hate Jews-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n12sjwk9FBE

Re: Trump Tweets Lies About Iran Deal
« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2019, 07:10:47 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Wowzers is this where we’re at now? Awesome.

It is really old news and was in the media lately.  It is certainly not the majority the party but it is out there.  Of course, not all news outlets report this stuff because they are part of the propaganda machine.  Just like Fox would not run a negative story about the NRA or rarely on the GOP.  I hope people quit living in their ideological bubbles.

https://thefederalist.com/2019/05/22/democratic-establishment-wont-stand-partys-anti-semites/

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/17/rashida-tlaib-antisemtism-attacks-republicans-democrats-holocaust-comments

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/05/democratic-party-tolerance-anti-semitism-exposes-intolerance/

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2019/04/09/democratic-leader-tries-to-explain-vote-against-anti-semitism-bill-958982

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/house-democrats-split-as-gop-demands-action-on-anti-israel-boycott/2019/05/16/2af6e518-7756-11e9-b7ae-390de4259661_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8383e08c5f02

https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-and-anti-semitism-11550015148

https://nypost.com/2019/04/17/jews-have-strong-grounds-for-a-new-exodus-from-the-democratic-party/

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/02/16/anti-semitism-and-the-democratic-party

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/07/11/israel-criticism-fuels-accusations-hate-lawmakers/1597101001/

this was a nice read too

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/jewish-muslim-democrats-seek-to-ease-tensions-amid-omar-controversy/2019/03/17/41bead38-4698-11e9-9726-50f151ab44b9_story.html?utm_term=.7f16ffa6576b

And this article on Bernie, take it with a grain of salt as it is really pro Israel but still...

https://www.algemeiner.com/2019/04/23/the-democrats-real-antisemitism-problem-bernie-sanders/

Some LBGT peeps also got in on the action

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/d-c-dyke-march-barred-jewish-pride-flag-lgbtq-space-ncna1015786

Quote
Former Sen. Joe Lieberman, a Democrat turned Independent who ran for vice president in 2000, said the Democratic Party is not anti-Jewish, but individual members have problems with Jews.

“The Democratic Party is not an anti-Jewish party, but there are some people in the party now, including in Congress as we’ve seen from Congresswoman Omar, who are saying explicitly anti-Semitic things,” Lieberman, who is Jewish, told radio host John Catsimatidis on AM 970 in New York in an interview Sunday, The Hill first reported.

https://www.cjnews.com/news/international/joe-lieberman-says-democratic-party-is-not-anti-jewish-but-some-members-are

There are bad apples in every party.  Pres. Trump happens to be one on the right.  The GOP has the white nationalist creeps.  But quit acting like these things did not happen.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2019, 07:24:52 PM by Celtics4ever »

Re: Trump Tweets Lies About Iran Deal
« Reply #6 on: July 12, 2019, 09:47:10 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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and we all know that some on the left don't like Israel of the Jewish People.

Wowzers is this where we’re at now? Awesome.

The growing tendency to equate "the Israel lobby exists and is influential" and "Jews will not replace us!" is yet another way white nationalism is being mainstreamed in national discourse. Conflating support for the right-wing Israeli government with support for Jewish Americans who vote 70-80% Democrat is just deeply dishonest. Both are total non-sequiturs to the President repeatedly lying about reneging on a deal that we ourselves certified was being followed and drastically increasing the likelihood of a nuclear attack in the Middle East, but that's par for the course.

 

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