Author Topic: How about... rest the starters?  (Read 6809 times)

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Re: How about... rest the starters?
« Reply #45 on: January 04, 2018, 03:11:09 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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A bunch of personal attacks here. Let's knock it off.

Re: How about... rest the starters?
« Reply #46 on: January 04, 2018, 03:11:59 PM »

Offline rochrist

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Boston is not a contender so resting starters is just silly.

Unless the only team in the league who you consider a contender is GS, then this statement is nonsense. We’re just as much of a true contender as Cleveland, SAS, Houston, etc.
No we aren't.  Cleveland and Houston, especially both have significantly higher title odds than Boston does.  They aren't close (and that accounts for Houston having to beat not only GS but also a team like SA just to make the finals).  San Antonio's are about inline with Boston, but that is really only because they would have to beat both Houston and Golden State just to make the finals.  Then you have teams like Toronto, which right now would likely be favored to beat Boston in a playoff series (especially if Toronto ends up with home court where they are 14-1). 

It is fun to think of Boston as a contender, but that 16 game win streak was a fluke.  Boston is closer to the .500 team it has been since the team started 22-4 than it is to a 22-4 juggernaut.  And that is ok, but there are going to be a lot of very disappointed Celtics fans when the C's lose in the 1st or 2nd round even though the team should be applauded for turning the season around after losing Hayward 5 minutes in.

Where are you getting your information? Boston is solidly in 4th place at 12/1 - behind GS, CLE, and Houston (SAS is 14/1); Toronto is 50/1. I am not sure why you think Toronto would be favored to beat the Cs or why you are handing the home court advantage.

What about if Hayward comes back, we sign a solid player with the DPE, and we have home court advantage? Does the pendulum swing back our way? We are a good team and one of the top 5 teams in the NBA. Even if we aren't favored to win the championship, we are definitely in the discussion with a few select other teams.
Toronto started 5-4 and is 20-6 since.  They've played 5 more road games then home games and don't have to travel past the central time zone the rest of the season (and have just 3 such games 2 in Chicago (including their next game) and 1 in Minnesota).  They are 14-1 at home.  They have the same amount of losses as Boston.  Toronto is trending upwards while Boston is not.  Thus, trending most certainly suggests that Toronto will end up with a better record than Boston, thus giving Toronto home court advantage in a playoff series.  That said, I actually expect Toronto to finish with the 1st seed and thus don't actually think Boston will play Toronto in the playoffs as I see Boston (the 3 seed) losing to Cleveland (the 2 seed) in the 2nd round (assuming Boston actually gets by the 6th seed, which depending on matchup could be a problem).

You should change your title to Global Troll.

Re: How about... rest the starters?
« Reply #47 on: January 04, 2018, 03:16:16 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Boston is not a contender so resting starters is just silly.

Unless the only team in the league who you consider a contender is GS, then this statement is nonsense. We’re just as much of a true contender as Cleveland, SAS, Houston, etc.
No we aren't.  Cleveland and Houston, especially both have significantly higher title odds than Boston does.  They aren't close (and that accounts for Houston having to beat not only GS but also a team like SA just to make the finals).  San Antonio's are about inline with Boston, but that is really only because they would have to beat both Houston and Golden State just to make the finals.  Then you have teams like Toronto, which right now would likely be favored to beat Boston in a playoff series (especially if Toronto ends up with home court where they are 14-1). 

It is fun to think of Boston as a contender, but that 16 game win streak was a fluke.  Boston is closer to the .500 team it has been since the team started 22-4 than it is to a 22-4 juggernaut.  And that is ok, but there are going to be a lot of very disappointed Celtics fans when the C's lose in the 1st or 2nd round even though the team should be applauded for turning the season around after losing Hayward 5 minutes in.

Where are you getting your information? Boston is solidly in 4th place at 12/1 - behind GS, CLE, and Houston (SAS is 14/1); Toronto is 50/1. I am not sure why you think Toronto would be favored to beat the Cs or why you are handing the home court advantage.

What about if Hayward comes back, we sign a solid player with the DPE, and we have home court advantage? Does the pendulum swing back our way? We are a good team and one of the top 5 teams in the NBA. Even if we aren't favored to win the championship, we are definitely in the discussion with a few select other teams.
Toronto started 5-4 and is 20-6 since.  They've played 5 more road games then home games and don't have to travel past the central time zone the rest of the season (and have just 3 such games 2 in Chicago (including their next game) and 1 in Minnesota).  They are 14-1 at home.  They have the same amount of losses as Boston.  Toronto is trending upwards while Boston is not.  Thus, trending most certainly suggests that Toronto will end up with a better record than Boston, thus giving Toronto home court advantage in a playoff series.  That said, I actually expect Toronto to finish with the 1st seed and thus don't actually think Boston will play Toronto in the playoffs as I see Boston (the 3 seed) losing to Cleveland (the 2 seed) in the 2nd round (assuming Boston actually gets by the 6th seed, which depending on matchup could be a problem).

You should change your title to Global Troll.
I will give you the benefit of the doubt that you were typing your post as I posted my warning.
Anyone else that personally attacks another will be suspended.

Re: How about... rest the starters?
« Reply #48 on: January 04, 2018, 03:29:15 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Moranis,

How are you saying you said nothing about Vegas and the raptors???

"Cleveland and Houston, especially both have significantly higher title odds than Boston does.  They aren't close (and that accounts for Houston having to beat not only GS but also a team like SA just to make the finals).  San Antonio's are about inline with Boston, but that is really only because they would have to beat both Houston and Golden State just to make the finals.  Then you have teams like Toronto, which right now would likely be favored to beat Boston in a playoff series

If you say someone is favored, you realize 99% of the population is going to assume you are talking about vegas lines. Nobody is going to think this is Hollinger's projection system you were referring to. You said something. It was wrong, you were corrected. Own it like every other poster on this site would for the love of god.
As far as I know, there aren't Vegas lines on a potential Toronto v. Boston playoff match-up.  Thus I couldn't have been talking about any sort of Vegas lines, because they don't exist.

What there are, is future title and conference odds. I know you know of these because we have repeatedly debated them throughout the season. Even funnier, you referenced them earlier in your post talking about the title odds. This is pretty weak man. Toronto is considered less likely to win the east and less less likely to win the title by a very very significant margin. You said they would "likely be favorite" over Boston in a playoff series. Worse, you added "right now". THIS IS WRONG. What happens if you admit you said something wrong? Does your brain explode?
I know what the future odds say.  And I know, pretty much everyone believes Toronto has a 0% chance of beating Cleveland, thus their Finals Odds are going to be terrible because of that and because not much money will come in on Toronto.  Boston is more likely to beat Cleveland because they match-up with Cleveland better than Toronto does, and thus has better odds to make the Finals.  Toronto, while having basically a 0% chance of beating Cleveland, matches up much better with Boston.  Boston will struggle to defend Toronto and unlike Cleveland can't make Toronto truly pay on the wings or with interior scoring, which is Toronto's main weaknesses defensively.

Finals odds are based on a lot of factors, they aren't based on individual match-ups.  Those come out after the match-ups are determined.

So based on your expectations: "That said, I actually expect Toronto to finish with the 1st seed and thus don't actually think Boston will play Toronto in the playoffs as I see Boston (the 3 seed) losing to Cleveland (the 2 seed) in the 2nd round"

You expect Toronto to play Cleveland in the conference finals where according to you they have "basically a 0% chance of beating Cleveland". By this, I would assume you think Toronto is a 0% contender.

Now, again based on your expectation, Boston "is more likely to beat Cleveland because they match-up with Cleveland better than Toronto does". So let's assume Boston has a 1% chance of beating Cleveland (against Toronto's 0% chance).

You seem to be saying, according to your expectations for how the seeding will play out, that Boston is more of a contender than Toronto, since the probability that Boston beats anyone leading up to Cleveland AND beats Cleveland is higher than 0%. Unless, you want to claim that Boston has a 0% chance of beating Toronto or that some team other than Toronto, Boston, or Cleveland would be in the conference finals.  ;)

Basically, I'm just trying to illustrate that you're throwing numbers out there to support your hunch, and then confusing your hunch with likelihood because there are numbers out there to support it.

Ultimately, the contender status of the Celtics comes down to how you define 'contender'. It's not something you can draw a clear line around using win/loss record or playoff projections in January.

Thank you for pointing out the ridiculousness of this all...

Re: How about... rest the starters?
« Reply #49 on: January 04, 2018, 03:51:37 PM »

Offline Moranis

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I consider any team that would be favored in at least 3 playoff series to be a legit/true contender to win the title.  This year, 3 teams fit that bill.  Golden State, Houston, and Cleveland.  I believe it is just too difficult to realistically win 2 playoff series in which you are a clear underdog.  Now if a team is basically in a toss up series, you could elevate that team to true contender status, so San Antonio might get there this year if they look like they are about even with Houston (still behind GS of course, who is clearly and rightfully a heavy favorite to win the title again).  Boston or Toronto could also get into a toss up type situation with Cleveland if they made the right moves at the trade deadline (I don't think Washington or Milwaukee has the ammunition to do so, but I suppose they are theoretically close enough that they could as well). I don't think any other western team can make moves necessary to get them realistically past the 3 rounds in the west and then the eastern team.  Obviously injuries or player surprises (both good and bad) can also come into play, but as of right now I consider only 3 teams to be legit/true title contenders.
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Re: How about... rest the starters?
« Reply #50 on: January 04, 2018, 03:55:48 PM »

Offline rochrist

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I consider any team that would be favored in at least 3 playoff series to be a legit/true contender to win the title.  This year, 3 teams fit that bill.  Golden State, Houston, and Cleveland.  I believe it is just too difficult to realistically win 2 playoff series in which you are a clear underdog.  Now if a team is basically in a toss up series, you could elevate that team to true contender status, so San Antonio might get there this year if they look like they are about even with Houston (still behind GS of course, who is clearly and rightfully a heavy favorite to win the title again).  Boston or Toronto could also get into a toss up type situation with Cleveland if they made the right moves at the trade deadline (I don't think Washington or Milwaukee has the ammunition to do so, but I suppose they are theoretically close enough that they could as well). I don't think any other western team can make moves necessary to get them realistically past the 3 rounds in the west and then the eastern team.  Obviously injuries or player surprises (both good and bad) can also come into play, but as of right now I consider only 3 teams to be legit/true title contenders.

And those teams collectively hold a 1-3 record against the Cs.