Bushnell article analyzing future options re: #1 pick/Thomas etc.

[obnoxiousmime]

https://sports.yahoo.com/news/lottery-presents-celtics-potential-franchise-player-also-isaiah-thomas-related-dilemma-082933236.html

I thought this article was worth a read. Bushnell acknowledges that while the possibility of the Celtics not re-signing Thomas to a max deal is unthinkable at this point, it's still worth objectively thinking about. As much as I like Thomas, I do think that everyone assuming his max deal next year is a sure thing could be a dangerous line of thinking.

I admit to wanting to have my cake and eat it to: straddle the line between going for a title and keeping the draft picks for the future, but that may not be realistic. At some point, perhaps soon, these draft picks are going to need big minutes to develop, specifically Brown and Fultz. It doesn't help that Brown plays SG/SF and Fultz plays PG/SG. If we sign Hayward, SF would be blocked and Brown could only move to SG. But then he conflicts with Fultz, who is supposed to take over there if he's going to share minutes with Thomas.

It's a good problem to have but the Celtics need to be very careful. Going for it all is very risky right now with the Cavs and Warriors showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. If we had signed Durant it would be very clear that going for it is the clear move. Durant is in his prime and a top 5, maybe top 2 player. The Warriors would also be weakened by not having Durant.

Without Durant, we're basically saying we think we can win with three max guys but none of whom are one of the top players in the league, the kind that is in the MVP conversation every year and a guaranteed perennial All-Star. Maybe it would be enough to say, even though we don't have that top player we have three really good ones, plus Fultz who eventually will be one? That sounds like wishful thinking though.

The best possible player out there that we could realistically get is Paul George, but as the article states it's risky due to his pending free agency. Losing Fultz, who could be star for the next decade to get one year of George would be devastating. And we don't even know if George is capable of getting to that next level anyway. As good as George is, he's not Durant or LeBron.

We're kind of in an Atlanta situation now with our pending big name FAs. Even though they offered the same deal or more than the Celtics for Horford, they weren't willing to give that supermax with the fifth year. Now there's pressure on a FAs current team to offer the max it can possibly give when very few players are actually worth it. Teams that have guys at the top echelon are actually getting the production back. However, teams that have the second-tier stars are not going to get that same return on investment. Thanks a lot LeBron and Chris Paul for putting that in the new CBA! =(

Anyway, thanks to anyone who read all this. My primary points are that the Celts need to be careful if they push all their chips into the pot and that Thomas should not be considered an automatic "supermax" guy.



 

[manl_lui]

that's actually a good debate right now, because i think getting the #1 pick this year makes the Celtics extremely flexible with our salary cap, even if we do not sign a max FA this year. And this is my reasoning

Our young core are Smart/Brown/#1 pick this year who are in friendly contracts right now

IT contract is coming up next year and in my honest opinion we can afford to give him the max, considering the contracts of Smart/Brown/#1 is not up yet (exception of Smart in which i think will be offered an extension)

so say we give 4-5 years to IT, by the time his contract is up, Fultz and Brown should have matured by then and you can afford to decide if you want to re-up IT or pass the torch to the new kids, I think we are in excellent position to be patient and not panic...

[TheSundanceKid]

Re-negotiating IT to the max this summer would actually solve a lot of problems. You don't commit yourself to him for 5 more years when you are worried about his fit with Fultz, instead only 3. Then you are able to see the grow of Fultz before you have to decide on Isaiah.

I don't think anyone can seriously say that in his first couple of years, Fultz will be better than Isaiah so you aren't going to have a clear picture by the time Isaiah comes up for renewal in 2018, following this idea would give you that time.

Isaiah would agree to it as well I believe. Assuming he plays til he's at least 35, he would make more money in the long run this way.

[GreenEnvy]

At this point, I take this pick off the table for guys like Butler and George. They should have made a better offer before the order was decided.

I'd trade it only for a perennial all-star like Davis.

Now if they are interested in the '18 Brooklyn pick and the centerpiece, we can talk.


Way too premature to talk about what direction Ainge goes. Let's see what we do against Cleveland first.

[The One]

Good article.

Great problem to have!

I trust the front office to do a right thing...since there is no one right path.

[kozlodoev]

Everyone kept harping that we need "another star", and now that we can draft that guy we'd let our other star go. Heh.

[Future Celtics Owner]

Re-negotiating IT to the max this summer would actually solve a lot of problems. You don't commit yourself to him for 5 more years when you are worried about his fit with Fultz, instead only 3. Then you are able to see the grow of Fultz before you have to decide on Isaiah.

I don't think anyone can seriously say that in his first couple of years, Fultz will be better than Isaiah so you aren't going to have a clear picture by the time Isaiah comes up for renewal in 2018, following this idea would give you that time.

Isaiah would agree to it as well I believe. Assuming he plays til he's at least 35, he would make more money in the long run this way.

I think it is a legitimate debate for us to question if IT can effectively age well. Sure, his offense may keep him on in his later carrer as aq 6th man. This series against the Cavs is perfect because we will see how the team and the individual players in a series vs a top 2 team.

[Boston Garden Leprechaun]

At this point, I take this pick off the table for guys like Butler and George. They should have made a better offer before the order was decided.

I'd trade it only for a perennial all-star like Davis.

Now if they are interested in the '18 Brooklyn pick and the centerpiece, we can talk.


Way too premature to talk about what direction Ainge goes. Let's see what we do against Cleveland first.

agreed. to me PG and JB are not worth it right now. they are both 27. will they stay long enough until our young core is ready to make multiple runs? keep building through draft and FA. if we are so worried about fultz/brown robbing each other of time at the 2 let brown play the 3 and instead of getting a FA for the 3 get one for the 5 and let zizic play behind him next year. have to make sure it does not handcuff us though money wise or contract length wise in case we need to dump later.

fultz and IT in same back court would be deadly backed up by smart and AB. or IT and Ab with smart and fultz behind them.  log jam at guard with rozier also. we need brown to develop quick at teh 3 though.

[tstorey_97]

Thomas's deal for this year is so good, how could you trade him? The cost actually adds to his trade value.

So Ainge decides to skip paying IT and trades him this summer. What on Earth would he get? More draft pix? Don't need anymore pix thank you. I just don't see the "benefit" to trading him in that the return wouldn't be worth it.

I would say, if IT refuses to redo his deal this summer, it might force a move, but, CBA makes it really hard to do a lot of these trades while making it easier to keep your own guys.

Operationally, with Fultz the pile of guards needing minutes gets to be a mountain and this might be where the debate this summer lies. Who goes? Ainge likes Rozier a lot, he has some upside
, plays big in big games and is cheap...very cheap.

I am so glad we have these problems! Too much talent! Now what ya gonna do?

I don't think IT to the Lakers is goin' ta happen and I don't think anyone else does either.

[JHTruth]

At this point, I take this pick off the table for guys like Butler and George. They should have made a better offer before the order was decided.

I'd trade it only for a perennial all-star like Davis.

Now if they are interested in the '18 Brooklyn pick and the centerpiece, we can talk.


Way too premature to talk about what direction Ainge goes. Let's see what we do against Cleveland first.

Paul George is totally a no-go as far as I'm concerned. He's headed to LA as soon as possible.

Butler I listen to but still like Fultz more..

[obnoxiousmime]

I think that one issue is, no matter what you do there aren't really any moves possible that will give you a clear advantage against the Warriors. We'll have a better gauge if we lose to the Cavs and then see how well they fare against in the Finals against a loaded, potentially best of all time Warriors team.

Even if we acquired Hayward and kept Fultz, the Warriors would still be better at every position:

Curry > Thomas
Thompson > a young Fultz or Bradley
Durant > Hayward or George
Draymond > Horford
Their 5th player vs. Our 5th player

I don't think this means we shouldn't make some big moves if they are available, but the ones that would really swing the odds in our favor just aren't out there right now. The extra pain in the butt is that they snuck in Durant under the cap and they basically have four superstars as opposed to the previously standard 3. The only way we can fit in four stars in now is to trade for one and then hope one of the kids still on their rookie deal develops into one (Fultz?).

I guess this makes me a fence-straddler. Sorry.

Allright, let's see how this Cavs series turns out. If we aren't competitive it would mean we're probably not just one semi-star player away and keeping the picks is probably a wise move.

[TheSundanceKid]

Re-negotiating IT to the max this summer would actually solve a lot of problems. You don't commit yourself to him for 5 more years when you are worried about his fit with Fultz, instead only 3. Then you are able to see the grow of Fultz before you have to decide on Isaiah.

I don't think anyone can seriously say that in his first couple of years, Fultz will be better than Isaiah so you aren't going to have a clear picture by the time Isaiah comes up for renewal in 2018, following this idea would give you that time.

Isaiah would agree to it as well I believe. Assuming he plays til he's at least 35, he would make more money in the long run this way.

I think it is a legitimate debate for us to question if IT can effectively age well. Sure, his offense may keep him on in his later carrer as aq 6th man. This series against the Cavs is perfect because we will see how the team and the individual players in a series vs a top 2 team.

We can have the debate but the sample size is tiny. I think it also matters who the individual is and what injury history they have, Isaiah scores highly on both fronts. Someone like Jared Sullinger would not. What age is a drop off expected? Most would point towards 32 being the end of the "prime" years. In which case a renegotiation this summer takes you to the end of his prime and we can make our judgements then.

What is not debatable is that Fultz will not eclipse Thomas in his first 2 years in the league, that almost never happens to an All star talent in this league.

[coffee425]

I think if we sign Gordon Hayward in FA and draft Fultz, we'll basically admit to letting go IT4 in FA.

It makes sense. Fultz is just cheaper over the next 4 years, and the production of the team wouldnt drop off significantly with Fultz and Hawyard.

[jade88]

Here's what I like out of it.

" If the Celtics are serious about going for this, why not trade Fultz for a star in his prime? Boston could select Fultz No. 1 overall, sign Hayward on the first day of free agency using cap space, and then, a month after the draft, flip Fultz for an All-Star. That would give it a (small-ball) starting lineup of Thomas, Bradley, Hayward, the newly-acquired star and Al Horford, plus a pretty solid and versatile bench (though a veteran or two would have to be included in any Fultz trade to make salaries match). That team could compete immediately with LeBron and the Cavs, and maybe even with the Warriors."

[td450]

I think that one issue is, no matter what you do there aren't really any moves possible that will give you a clear advantage against the Warriors. We'll have a better gauge if we lose to the Cavs and then see how well they fare against in the Finals against a loaded, potentially best of all time Warriors team.

Even if we acquired Hayward and kept Fultz, the Warriors would still be better at every position:

Curry > Thomas
Thompson > a young Fultz or Bradley
Durant > Hayward or George
Draymond > Horford
Their 5th player vs. Our 5th player

I don't think this means we shouldn't make some big moves if they are available, but the ones that would really swing the odds in our favor just aren't out there right now. The extra pain in the butt is that they snuck in Durant under the cap and they basically have four superstars as opposed to the previously standard 3. The only way we can fit in four stars in now is to trade for one and then hope one of the kids still on their rookie deal develops into one (Fultz?).

I guess this makes me a fence-straddler. Sorry.

Allright, let's see how this Cavs series turns out. If we aren't competitive it would mean we're probably not just one semi-star player away and keeping the picks is probably a wise move.

For a couple of years we start Avery. The 5th guy would be Brown.

IT and AB have shown they give Curry and Thompson problems. Brown covers Durant. Hayward matches up against Draymond. Horford would have to clearly win his battle against whoever they trot out. We are quicker at every position and exceptional defensively except for IT. Our starters lose the battle but keep intense pressure on their starters and we stay within contact. The Warriors bench thins out as they pay everyone, and our bench makes up the difference.