State of Play - Dec 1st

[PhoSita]

Today is Dec 1st, which means we're a little over a month into the season, just one game shy of the 20 game mark.

The Celts' record is 10-8, tied for 4th in the East.  Their point differential is +0.4.  Their SRS is 0.61 (13th).  They have played 8 games at home (4-4) and 10 on the road (6-4). 

So far, the Celtics are a decidedly just-above-middle kind of team.  But, they've also played a good chunk of their games without Al Horford or Jae Crowder.


What are the Celtics good at?

The Celts have an efficient offense.

They pass the ball a lot -- they're #2 in Assist Rate.

They take care of the ball -- they're #4 in Turnover Rate.

They -- finally -- shoot the three a lot and they shoot it well.  #5 in 3PA per game and #9 in 3P%.

Overall, the Celts are #8 in Offensive Efficiency.


They defend shots fairly well.

Opponents don't take too many three pointers (#17 in OPP 3PA) and opponents don't shoot very well (#11 in OPP Adjusted FG%).



What are the Celts not so good at?

They are an abysmal rebounding team.

#21 in Offensive Rebound Rate; #30 -- DEAD LAST -- in Defensive Rebound Rate.

They're not good on either end in terms of free throws.

In free throws attempted per game, they are 24th; in opponent free throws attempted, they are 21st.  They don't get to the line enough and they send opponents to the line too frequently.  This weakness in free throws somewhat undermines their shooting efficiency and their defense on opponent shot attempts.

They're not forcing enough turnovers.

Last year, the Celts made up for their awful rebounding by forcing turnovers at an amazing rate.  This year, they are only 14th in Opponent Turnovers.  While they're making up for this in keeping their own turnovers down, their league-worst defensive rebounding is undermining their attempts to gain a possession advantage.

They have a block deficit.

The Celts are #21 in blocks per game; meanwhile, they are #23 in the number of blocks their opponents have each game.  This should not be too surprising given that the Celts are a generally undersized team with below average athleticism.  Again, this is an area where in the past the Celts have made up the difference by getting a lot of steals.  Not so much this year.  They're 22nd in steals per game.

Overall, the Celtics are just 20th in Defensive Efficiency.  That's obviously a lot less impressive than we hoped they'd be, but they've also missed their two best defensive players for a number of games.


What can they change?  What can't they change?

I think we can expect the Celtics to force more turnovers.  Given the number of shots Horford has been swatting, I think we can expect the blocked shot deficit to become less pronounced as Horford plays more.

I would like to say we can expect more free throws, but that is a long time trend with this team.  They're just not going to get a lot of free throws attempts apart from Isaiah Thomas. 

As for the boards, I think the Celts are just a poor rebounding team.  It's in the team's DNA.  They are constructed to be a smart, switching, passing, shooting team that scores with efficiency, forces turnovers, and doesn't give up easy looks on the defensive end.  They aren't constructed to beast other teams inside or clean the glass.

To reach the heights they want to reach, the Celts will need to continue to protect the ball and shoot well.  They may need to make some sacrifices in terms of their shot defense discipline in order to force some more turnovers.  That's the only way they're going to make up for how poor they are on the boards.

I think they can also get even better defensively in terms of their shot defense.  Coming into this year we thought they might be able to have the #1 defense in the league, given that they were top 5 last year before adding Al Horford.  It has been disappointing so far that they are just above average in those aspects, and are overall actually poor defensively when rebounds are considered, given their talent on that end of the floor.


Ultimately, the weakness on the boards and at the line seems like a major problem for this team, given that many of the Celts' most dangerous opponents in the East feature either glass-eaters (Thompson, Love, Howard, Gibson/Lopez, Valanciunas, Drummond) or guys who get to the line a lot (LeBron, Lowry, Derozan, Wade, Butler); a few of them feature both.

But, you never know.  This Celts team is fun to watch, especially on offense, even if they are flawed.  And you never know what Ainge might have up his sleeve . . . .

[jpotter33]

TP. Excellent post.

And it definitely matches up well with the eye test and what many of us have observed so far:

1) Rebounding is a significant issue this year. Props to you and Moranis and the others who were pushing this issue before the season. I was one of the ones who didn't think it'd be any more of an issue than it was last year. However, there's also several issues that came up that nobody expected - Amir's drastic drop-off and Horford essentially being our PF instead of our C, which takes him away from the basket and kills his rebounding percentages and interior defensive abilities.

I think some rotational changes can help our rebounding issue somewhat, such as moving Horford to C and replacing Amir with someone like JJ, but ultimately we're never going to be an above average rebounding team without some personnel changes. I'm looking at you Noel/Boogie/Bogut.

2) The defensive intensity just isn't there like it was last year. This is partly due to injuries and still learning to play with each other, but there's a noticeable lack of defensive intensity from last year, which is directly correlated to turnover rate. I think part of it is a natural tendency for your defensive efficiency to slip the more your offensive efficiency increases, but that's only a small part of it. I suspect we'll get better in this regard as we go on, but it will take an attitude change.

3) The block deficit I think will improve; the free throw issues are something we'll have to live with. Horford is fantastic in that regard this year, even being out of position at the PF, and he should easily make up (and then some) for Amir's decreased block percentage and the loss of Sully. The free throw issues are just something we'll have to try and overcome, though relying less on the three point shot and taking it to the basket will certainly improve things.

One issue that I think you're overlooking is the decrease in bench play. Almost across the board our bench is worse than last year, which is due to a combination of things - injuries, losing Turner, and implementing young guys in the rotation (Brown/Rozier).

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/teamstats/17/7/pts/1-1

Perhaps moving Bradley to the bench is something we should look at, which worked out pretty well last year when we were forced to try it due to injuries.

[PhoSita]

One issue that I think you're overlooking is the decrease in bench play. Almost across the board our bench is worse than last year, which is due to a combination of things - injuries, losing Turner, and implementing young guys in the rotation (Brown/Rozier).

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/teamstats/17/7/pts/1-1

That's a good point.

Per your link, the Celts are 18th in Bench PPG this season with 31.8.

Last year, the Celts were 10th with 37.1.


With that said, I imagine the Celts are better in terms of getting points from their starters.  Exchanging Jared Sullinger for Al Horford will tend to do that.

I think the Celts bench will improve over time as that group gets more playing time together.  It's going to depend a great deal on Rozier, Smart, and Kelly Olynyk in particular getting minutes together and increasing their confidence in getting to their preferred spots and taking shots.