I see all this talk about Noel being a defensive powerhouse etc
If you see his numbers per 36 mins they are very close to those of Amir (with the diff that Amir has a much better FG%)
First remark, how is Noel supposed to fill a hole in our roster when we already have a player who does most of what Noel does in the defensive end.
Second remark, No, this is not worth a #3 pick.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=johnsam01&p2=noelne01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=#per_minute::none
Noel will get better Amir is who he is. Plus CBS is a great coach. Brown TBD.
Unless you have foreknowledge of the future, the most you can say is that there is reason to hope Noel will get better because he is still 22yo. His game is based on athleticism rather than skill anyway, so the margin for improvement is not as big as many think.
But this is hardly relevant since Noel's contract expires in one year - so who cares even if Noel is an All Star 3-4 years from now?
As it is, we will be trading for a one year rental of a more athletic Amir who can't score. Doesn't move the needle much.
As for giving up Brown for Noel, I hope you are kidding. Sure, Brown's value is to be determined. But he is under contract until 2020. This means that if Brown turns out as good as Ainge hoped when he drafted him at #3, he still doesn't get to pay him any more than the 5 mill already agreed. Our room for trades/signing FAs is already getting limited and it will be even more so as our rookies become RFAs. Ppl have to get used to the idea that we do not have infinite money to spend as we did the last three seasons, esp. on long term projects. What this team needs to get to the next level is one or two more players in or near the top-20, like Horford.
Come on. That is ridiculously reaching. Noel put up historical numbers as a rookie on the defensive end, and he's been hampered by a historically bad 76ers team his whole career. There's a reason one was drafted sixth (even with a torn ACL) and the other was drafted 56th out of high school. Noel's ceiling is much higher than Amir's ever was, and the fact that his statistical output in two years is already better than most of Amir's career is evidence of this.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=noelne01&p2=johnsam01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=
Even Amir's best year is worse than Nerlens' past year, so this entire line of arguments seems totally off-base.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2013&p1=johnsam01&y2=2016&p2=noelne01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=
First of all, just to be clear: what I am saying is that it is unlikely that next season's Noel will be significantly better than Amir. I only care about what Noel will give in the one year that remains in his contract - ceiling is irrelevant.
Second, have you even gone through the link you sent me allegedly comparing their two best seasons?
Amir PER: 17.3
Noel PER: 16.2
Amir WS: 7.3
Noel WS: 3.0
Amir FG%: .554
Noel FG%: .521
Amir VORP: 3.2
Noel VORP: 1.3
Amir BPM: 3.5
Noel BPM: 0.7
Noel has a few more pts, rebs and ca. 1 steal (and turnover) more per game. In what world did Noel had the better year?
Also, FYI the numbers Noel put as a rookie are pretty standard for a good rookie center that gets playing time. If you want 'historical' look up Timmy's or KAT's numbers.
Noel averaged over 2 steals and 2 blocks per 36, which are historically good defensive numbers for a rookie center that Towns didn't even come close to. That's what I was talking about, and it's certainly true. Further, sure, if you don't want to take into context the teams that each were playing on, you can make an argument with certain advanced stats that Amir's *best* year was about equal to Noel's rookie year, even though Noel was better pretty much across the board than Amir in traditional stars. It's clear that Noel is a much better defender overall than Amir ever was, which is why they're both professionals, not due to their offense.
And this whole narrative of only considering next year is hogwash, too. First, he'd undoubtedly be better than Amir next year, because he's only getting better with more reps, especially on a much better team, while Amir is on the decline. Second, he's a *restricted* free agent next year, so acting like we could just pick him up the next summer with no problem is naive and not true. If Embiid turns out to be a bust or gets injured again, which are decent chances, then Philly will lock Noel up long-term, and there's literally nothing we could do about it. Third, trading for him and getting his rights means that we could pay him more for longer, so it's absolutely not *just* about next year with acquiring Noel. Acquiring him through a trade might legitimately be the only way we can get him.
Look, we're not going to trade someone like Brown or Smart for Noel. It just doesn't make sense value-wise and with the context of everything considered. But something like Rozier, Young, and the Memphis pick is about right value for him, and it'd be absolutely worth it for us to do so. He'd give us the opportunity to be a historically good defensive team, and we'd have a shot at dethroning Cleveland with our superior perimeter and interior defense.
try again
and FYI in absolute numbers Noel had four (4) blocks more than KAT.
Noel is good but not as special as some of you make him look.
Dude, what are you smoking?? Lol Your link literally just proved what I said - no other rookie "averaged over 2 steals and 2 blocks per 36, which are historically good defensive numbers for a rookie center that Towns didn't even come close to."
Noel per 36 - 2.2 Blk, 2.1 Stl (His real average in 30.8 MPG was 1.9 Blk and 1.8 Stl, so it's not an issue with extrapolation either.)
Towns per 36 - 1.9 Blk, 0.8 Stl...... It's not even a contest! Lol You can't just focus on one stat that fits your argument when I'm talking about two stats in particular (and overall defense). Noel is clearly a better overall defender than Towns, though Towns is the overall much, much better player.
And the only person who really even came close to that benchmark is David Robinson, who was hardly a rookie at age 24 compared to age 20 for Noel.
Robinson per 36 - 3.8 Blk, 1.7 Stl. And nobody is coming even close to comparing him to Robinson.
So I literally don't even know what you're arguing at this point. I've only said that Noel is an elite defender, not overall player, which the statistics back up.
'Dude, what are you smoking?? Lol '
^keep that kind of comments for your friends and acquaintances. Thank you.
We both know the only reason you add steals to the conversation is bcs it helps your case. I don't remember you bringing up steals in other threads when comparing rim protectors.
A Manute Bol or Mark Eaton fan could similarly claim that no one else had at least 6.5 blks and 6 Drebs.
By saying this, I am not dismissing the value of steals but reminding you what the C's needs are at this stage and what which are traditionally seen as indicators of a good rim protector (blocks and DRebs).
That Noel averages one steal more that most NBA bigs is nice, but does not bring him any closer to the other bigs in the link: Mourning, Hakeem, Duncan...
Another thing to consider is that playing for Philly helps your stats. Other teams relax and/or play their second unit more mins with Philly.
And two final points: first, if Noel is as good as you say, then why Philly would like to trade him for cheap?
Your own suggestion is Young, Rozier and the Memphis pick. ofc we would all like to have him at this price, but no one outside the Celtics Blog Forums thinks this is the price Philly will ask.
And second, no matter how 'historical' a defender he is, he makes lots of turnovers, and is p weak at the offensive end. Not sure how a big who cannot pass or shoot would fit in Stevens system. But again, if Rozier, Young and a late first rounder is all it takes to get him, I would welcome him with open arms.
PS will I ever have an answer on how Noel's best season was better than Amir's?
I guessed as much.
First off, there's no reason to be butt-hurt. It's a common phrase in the English language that is
hardly offensive...
Second, you're just being dishonest with your whole narrative about steals.
I have always discussed steals in my admiration and longing for Noel as our rim protector, and it's fundamental to why I think he's the perfect rim protector for us, i.e. because he's just as valuable with his active hands/length out on the perimeter as he is by the rim. I've always said the combination of his post D/rim protection, active hands, and mobility on the perimeter/capability of switching is why he's the perfect defensive center for us.
Further, he's the exact type that you have to pair with Horford if you're going to move Horford to the PF position. That's legitimately been my point with Noel the entire time we've talked about him since the draft, so don't accuse me of just now bringing steals into the conversation to bolster my argument. That's flat out inaccurate, and you know it. He gets the high number of steals due to his length, active hands, and ability to disrupt passes and/or dribbling out on the perimeter, which coincides with my entire argument for why Noel is the perfect (and perhaps one of the only) center to pair with Horford.
And where have I ever been comparing him to greats like Duncan, Robinson, and Olajuwon?? You're the only one doing that. I said he had a historical rookie season averaging those defensive numbers that he averaged, and now you're extrapolating that to me comparing him to all-time greats. That's on you, not me. The only thing I've ever said is that he's a better overall defender than Towns (and Drummond in the other threads), both of which are backed up statistically.
Third, you're really arguing that playing for the Sixers actually
helps Noel's stats more than
hurts him overall? They didn't even have an NBA caliber guard on their roster for most of the past two years, which hurts the bigs' offense tremendously. Further, we're not talking about scoring and rebounding here, since someone HAS to score and rebound. Blocks and steals aren't necessary parts of the game, so you can't argue that his high rate of blocks and steals is merely a situation of "good stats on a bad team." That argument isn't valid due to not being related to blocks and steals. If anything, the fact that Philly was tied for 12th (with Boston) in defensive efficiency in Noel's rookie year with hardly any other talent on the roster just further shows that Noel's impact as a defender is real.
Finally, your answer why Philly would trade him for cheap has been discussed a billion times on this blog. First, as you like to focus on, he's in the last year of his contract before a major pay-da, which decreases his trade value. Second, they have a ridiculous log jam at the big positions. Noel, Embiid, and Okafor can all only legitimately play the 5 spot, and they have Simmons and Saric that are both primarily 4's, with Covington deserving some small-ball minutes at the 4, too, not to mention all of the other project bigs that they have.
So they absolutely should trade one of their guys before the season starts; otherwise, they're pretty much guaranteeing locker room issues due to a lack of playing time and decreased trade values. We're already seeing the effects of this with Noel's camp signalling he wants a trade, along with all of the other behavior. And it doesn't matter how much they ask for him, because that's not what dictates what they actually get. They can ask for the Moon for Noel, but with other teams knowing his contract status and the fact that Philly virtually HAS to trade one of the bigs, if the market doesn't dictate that price, then they're not getting it for him. If the best offer is Rozier, Young, and 1st, which will be right up there with the best offers for him, and Noel starts making a fuss, which we're already seeing, then, yes, they will absolutely have to take that offer.
So, yes, once again, I can find Noel to be extremely valuable to us as a good fit in our defensive schemes while also thinking that we can get him for something like Rozier, Young, and the Memphis pick. Context matters in these discussions.
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