Are any of our young guys worth more than their draft position?

[LarBrd33]

Take Marcus Smart, for instance.  He was a #6 pick.  Could you get a top 5 pick for Smart?  No.

James Young was taken 16th.  Could you get a lottery pick for him?  Definitely not.

Jaylen Brown was taken 3rd.  Worth a top 2 pick?  Certainly not yet.

Even a guy taken in the 2nd round like Jordan Mickey who has shown encouraging signs in D-league... He's coming off a rookie season averaging 1.3 points, 0.8 rebounds, 0.1 assists, 0.7 blocks in just 16 games.  Does he have more trade value than a late 1st rounder?  I sincerely doubt it.

In some ways, it's not the fault of the players.  We have a deep team filled with contributors.  For the past couple years that's been the summation of this Celtic team.  Limited star power, but plenty of decent players.  It's hard to crack a rotation as a young guy when there are plenty of competent players above you like Evan Turner, Tyler Zeller, etc. 

So consider Terry Rozier.  He was thought to be a reach at #16 (some mocks projected him in the 2nd round).  He did jack squat as a rookie  (averaging 1.8 points, 0.9 assists, 1.6 rebounds, 0.2 steals with 27%/22% shooting in 39 games).   But he actually looked solid in D-League and has shown encouraging signs through 3 meaningless Summer-league games.   

It's not a tremendous leap to say that Rozier could be a comparable talent to a guy like Devin Booker taken a few picks above him.  But the fact of the matter is, there's several guys in D-League who averaged 20+ points that you've never even heard of.  Playing well in D-league means nothing.  We've seen several D-League superstars fail to even crack an NBA rotation.  Likewise, flourishing in Summer League is completely meaningless.  There have been undrafted guys who never even end up on an NBA roster who were successful in those exhibition games.  Flourishing on that level isn't going to significantly impact your trade value.  So unfortunately, while it's entirely feasible that Rozier may indeed be on the same level as a guy like Devin Booker, there is no way in hell he has comparable trade value to the 19 year old Booker who spent the second half of his rookie season averaging 19.2 points, 4.1 assists, 3 rebounds in the NBA.    Rozier is still just a guy who averaged nothing on the NBA level.  His trade value is next to nothing.   Could you get a lottery pick for Terry Rozier?  No way.

And really, I don't know how much of that is a result of our team being too deep to get minutes for the young guys, and how much of that has to do with them just not being that good.   Avery Bradley is a hopeful comp for Rozier.  Teams eventually started offering late 1sts for Avery Bradley... but were they doing that after a rookie season in which he averaged 1.7 points, 0.5 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.3 steals with 34%/0%/50% shooting?  Definitely not.

So what do you think.  Is there any young guy on this team who is worth more than their draft position?   I'm not talking about your personal opinion of the guy or how you see him projecting.  Young might end up a star.  Smart might end up a star.  Rozier might be great this year.  Brown might end up a superstar for all we know.  But it seems to me every single one of our young guys is worth less than the draft picks we used to select them.   Without minutes for them, they are all lesser assets than when we just had them as picks.   Similarly with someone like Yabusele who we reached for at #16 and will likely be keeping overseas due to lack of roster space.  Do you think we'll be able to trade him for a lottery pick next year?  No. 

It sort of puts us in a bit of a rough position, because we're up to 13 roster spots right now with only 2 left for Sully, Zeller, Bentil, Nader, Jackson, Yabu and Zizic.  You can keep a couple of those guys overseas but even then, this is a team that is still badly in need of a consolidation trade - but how can you consolidate assets if nobody values your assets appropriately?  I'd like to say we could maybe get an upgrade by packaging guys like Mickey, Young and Rozier, but those guys are worth less than the picks we used to select them.  They'd have to prove it on the NBA level for anyone to have interest.

[alldaboston]

This happens with most young players. After they're picked and they play a year, most of them aren't worth anything better than the spot they were picked at. It's not just our guys. It's most young players drafted.

[CelticsFan166]

TP for an interesting topic. Never really thought of this but if I had to pick one I'd say Rozier is worth more than #16. He's looked like a flat-out steal so far.

[LarBrd33]

TP for an interesting topic. Never really thought of this but if I had to pick one I'd say Rozier is worth more than #16. He's looked like a flat-out steal so far.

He does, but he doesn't. 

You can say his d-league stats were great... but Vander Blue's dleague stats were better.   It doesn't make him a significant trade asset just because he succeeded on that level.  The D-League is riddled with guys averaging 20+ points who you've probably never even heard of. 

Personally, I have faith in Rozier.  As a fan of the Celtics, I'm hopeful that he'll be a contributor.  That's the homer in me.   The reality is, he's a nobody who did nothing as a rookie and was considered a reach at #16.  Until he proves it on the NBA level, there's no way I could see him having the same trade value as a lottery pick.

Do you genuinely think there's any team that would offer a lottery pick for him right now?

[InameallmyanimalsLarry]

Rozier's playoff minutes were more than adequate, a little expressive even, Oops wrong thread   

[Tr1boy]

Mickey, rozier, brown, yabu

I would say yes. Brown could end up better than brown and simmons

[LarBrd33]

This happens with most young players. After they're picked and they play a year, most of them aren't worth anything better than the spot they were picked at. It's not just our guys. It's most young players drafted.

Not necessarily.  That's the point I'm trying to make.   

Let's pretend Terry Rozier and Devil Booker are on the same level (despite the fact Booker was taken 3 picks higher and is 3 years younger).

Booker goes to a bad team that lets him play a ton of minutes.  He spends the second half of the season averaging 19 points.

Rozier goes to a good team that has no minutes for him.  He spends his rookie season averaging 1 point on terrible shooting percentages.

At this point, I could see a team offering a top 10 pick for Devin Booker.

At this point, I'd be surprised if any team would offer a 1st rounder for Terry Rozier.

For young guys, your ability on the NBA level is all that matters.   Until Rozier proves he can be more than a total scrub on the NBA level, he'll have no trade value.

And there's plenty of young guys, such as Giannis, Gobert, etc.. who end up pretty quickly being worth more than the picks used to select them.   There's no young guy on Boston worth more than the pick we used to select them.  I think at one point, Sullinger qualified.  Back in the day, Rondo qualified.   Big Al qualified.   Guys who were taken 15-27 that ended up worth more than that pick range.   

Right now - everyone has just lost trade value.

[The One]

Good topic.

If we believe that you draft the best player available and trade for need, this begs some questions.

What does the other team want/need?  What are their areas of excess?  What culture are they trying establish or continue?  What financial implications are there?  How about injuries?

This is why it's hard to make a trade sometimes.  So many factors and moving parts.

What you mention and are trying to discern seems to be leaning towards the "rotisserie league" part of the ledger.  But it's much more complicated than that.

Could one of our prospects be worth more than their draft position?  Yes, under the right circumstances...which sometimes change from day to day.

[BitterJim]

One thing that needs to be considered is the contracts.  Would some one trade the #16 pick for 4 years of Terry Rozier? I doubt it, but it's certainly more likely than trading it for 3 years of him

[Ilikesports17]

None of them are worse more than their draft position. Outside of Marcus and Jame tho, I dont think thats an indictment on the players or Dannys picking ability. I would not at all be suprised if in a year or two we look back at Rozier and Brown as terrific picks. I could also see it going he other way.

Lets look at the '15 draft
Towns mega yes 5th worst team
Russell nope
Okafor doesnt look like it
Porzingis yes  7th worst team
Hezonja nope
WCS nope
Mudiay id say nope
Stanley Johnson maybe
Kaminsky nope
Winslow yes
Turner yes
Lyles maybe
Booker yes 4th worst team
*worth noting this draft was known for backend lotto talent so thats a bit misleading
Payne nope
Oubre nope
Rozer nope
Vaughn nope
Dekker  nope
Grant nope
Wright nope
Anderson maybe
Portis yes
RHJ yes 3rd worst team
Jones nope
Martin nope
weird name nope
Nance nope
Mccullough sure why not 3rd worst team
Hunter nope
Looney nope


I could be wrong on a bunch but its pretty rare to be on a non bottom 3 team and prove yourself beyond a 1st round position.

that said, its a bummer from a value perspective. Its why im hesitant to throw guys like Rozier and Brown into trades because their values seem to be lower than their talent levels right now. Makes it tough to consolidate talent when you think Rozier is late lotto talent level but probably has late 1st value.

[Ilikesports17]

Mickey, rozier, brown, yabu

I would say yes. Brown could end up better than brown and simmons

theres a difference between how you value them and project them and you imagine the league generally values them. Browns predraft value was anywhere between 3-8 in a bad draft. you think you could spin that into a top 2 pick? no way.

Ive like Rozier but hes an unproved #16 pick who was very OK in emergency playoff minutes. Your not getting a lotto pick for Terry

Mickey perhaps but hes done nothing at the NBA level, would be surprised if he got you a late first.

Yabu? nope.

[LarBrd33]

None of them are worse more than their draft position. Outside of Marcus and Jame tho, I dont think thats an indictment on the players or Dannys picking ability. I would not at all be suprised if in a year or two we look back at Rozier and Brown as terrific picks. I could also see it going he other way.

Lets look at the '15 draft
Towns mega yes 5th worst team
Russell nope
Okafor doesnt look like it
Porzingis yes  7th worst team
Hezonja nope
WCS nope
Mudiay id say nope
Stanley Johnson maybe
Kaminsky nope
Winslow yes
Turner yes
Lyles maybe
Booker yes 4th worst team
*worth noting this draft was known for backend lotto talent so thats a bit misleading
Payne nope
Oubre nope
Rozer nope
Vaughn nope
Dekker  nope
Grant nope
Wright nope
Anderson maybe
Portis yes
RHJ yes 3rd worst team
Jones nope
Martin nope
weird name nope
Nance nope
Mccullough sure why not 3rd worst team
Hunter nope
Looney nope


I could be wrong on a bunch but its pretty rare to be on a non bottom 3 team and prove yourself beyond a 1st round position.

that said, its a bummer from a value perspective. Its why im hesitant to throw guys like Rozier and Brown into trades because their values seem to be lower than their talent levels right now. Makes it tough to consolidate talent when you think Rozier is late lotto talent level but probably has late 1st value.

So you're basically saying the intrigue of the unknown is always more appealing than the sad reality of the known. 

There's some truth to that.  But beyond that, for the past couple years our prospects have really underperformed and lost a significant amount of trade value... partially because we don't have minutes for them.  Partially because they are weak.

[KG Living Legend]

 Smart could be the headliner in the eventual Okafor trade, so you must factor that in and Okafor was taken #3 overall.

 Crowder could be sold higher than he was bought.

 Thomas could yield a nice pick for sure.

 Ben Bentil and Jackson could be two steals.

 Olynyk you could get a case of Heineken for. He could have grabbed the Greek Freak so yeah that was dumb.

 Horford could get you a pick and all he did was cost a zillion dollars.

 Brown won't get you better than three but who cares, he's a great prospect and you still could get something nice for him.

[crimson_stallion]

Take Marcus Smart, for instance.  He was a #6 pick.  Could you get a top 5 pick for Smart?  No.

James Young was taken 16th.  Could you get a lottery pick for him?  Definitely not.

Jaylen Brown was taken 3rd.  Worth a top 2 pick?  Certainly not yet.

Even a guy taken in the 2nd round like Jordan Mickey who has shown encouraging signs in D-league... He's coming off a rookie season averaging 1.3 points, 0.8 rebounds, 0.1 assists, 0.7 blocks in just 16 games.  Does he have more trade value than a late 1st rounder?  I sincerely doubt it.

In some ways, it's not the fault of the players.  We have a deep team filled with contributors.  For the past couple years that's been the summation of this Celtic team.  Limited star power, but plenty of decent players.  It's hard to crack a rotation as a young guy when there are plenty of competent players above you like Evan Turner, Tyler Zeller, etc. 

So consider Terry Rozier.  He was thought to be a reach at #16 (some mocks projected him in the 2nd round).  He did jack squat as a rookie  (averaging 1.8 points, 0.9 assists, 1.6 rebounds, 0.2 steals with 27%/22% shooting in 39 games).   But he actually looked solid in D-League and has shown encouraging signs through 3 meaningless Summer-league games.   

It's not a tremendous leap to say that Rozier could be a comparable talent to a guy like Devin Booker taken a few picks above him.  But the fact of the matter is, there's several guys in D-League who averaged 20+ points that you've never even heard of.  Playing well in D-league means nothing.  We've seen several D-League superstars fail to even crack an NBA rotation.  Likewise, flourishing in Summer League is completely meaningless.  There have been undrafted guys who never even end up on an NBA roster who were successful in those exhibition games.  Flourishing on that level isn't going to significantly impact your trade value.  So unfortunately, while it's entirely feasible that Rozier may indeed be on the same level as a guy like Devin Booker, there is no way in hell he has comparable trade value to the 19 year old Booker who spent the second half of his rookie season averaging 19.2 points, 4.1 assists, 3 rebounds in the NBA.    Rozier is still just a guy who averaged nothing on the NBA level.  His trade value is next to nothing.   Could you get a lottery pick for Terry Rozier?  No way.

And really, I don't know how much of that is a result of our team being too deep to get minutes for the young guys, and how much of that has to do with them just not being that good.   Avery Bradley is a hopeful comp for Rozier.  Teams eventually started offering late 1sts for Avery Bradley... but were they doing that after a rookie season in which he averaged 1.7 points, 0.5 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.3 steals with 34%/0%/50% shooting?  Definitely not.

So what do you think.  Is there any young guy on this team who is worth more than their draft position?   I'm not talking about your personal opinion of the guy or how you see him projecting.  Young might end up a star.  Smart might end up a star.  Rozier might be great this year.  Brown might end up a superstar for all we know.  But it seems to me every single one of our young guys is worth less than the draft picks we used to select them.   Without minutes for them, they are all lesser assets than when we just had them as picks.   Similarly with someone like Yabusele who we reached for at #16 and will likely be keeping overseas due to lack of roster space.  Do you think we'll be able to trade him for a lottery pick next year?  No. 

It sort of puts us in a bit of a rough position, because we're up to 13 roster spots right now with only 2 left for Sully, Zeller, Bentil, Nader, Jackson, Yabu and Zizic.  You can keep a couple of those guys overseas but even then, this is a team that is still badly in need of a consolidation trade - but how can you consolidate assets if nobody values your assets appropriately?  I'd like to say we could maybe get an upgrade by packaging guys like Mickey, Young and Rozier, but those guys are worth less than the picks we used to select them.  They'd have to prove it on the NBA level for anyone to have interest.

To answer the title of this thread directly, yes.

Jared Sullinger was taken as the #21 pick, and I think he is significantly better then that - despite his obvious flaws.  As a guy who is a double double threat on any night, he is well worth a lottery pick.

Terry Rozier was taken at #16 - I think his talent level is beyond that.  He hasn't had the opportunity to show it yet, but I'm confident that at some point this season he is going to eliminate any doubt that he was a steal at that draft position.

Mickey was taken in the second round, and I think he's pretty clearly a first round talent - not lottery level talent, but first round talent for sure.

Yaba is actually look solid in Summer League - can't say anything this early, but he could turn out better then #16. 

I'll be very surprised if Jackson doesn't prove to be better then the #45 (or whatever it was) slot he got taken at.

I don't think Brown is going to ever be worth MORE then his draft position.  That's tough at #3.   I think he might justify his #3 selection one day though.  I think the two best players in this draft are going to be Simmons and Dunn, and I wouldn't be surprised of Brown ends up beign the 3rd best.

Crowder is far better then his #34 draft slot, and Thomas - I don't even have to explain how much of a steal he is.

Bradley was taken 19th, and realistically he is worthy of a top 10 pick.

You could argue that Smart is worth more then pick #6 in the 14/15 draft at this current point in time.  That may change a year from now depending on how some of those other guys (Parker, Gordon, Exum, Embiid, Lavine, Randle) end up developing - but as it stands right now, I think Smart is probably the second or third best player in that draft.  But at the same time, Smart was always expected to be one of the most NBA ready players in that draft..he was always going to be a high floor, low ceiling guy.