The #3 Historically: Hit or Miss?

[RedClaw33]

Just thought this might an interesting list to take a look at.....some duds, some decent, some all-stars, some MVP caliber, some all-time greats

2015  Jahlil Okafor
2014  Joel Embid
2013   Otto Porter   
2012   Bradley Beal   
2011   Enes Kanter   
2010   Derrick Favors   
2009   James Harden   
2008   O.J. Mayo   
2007   Al Horford   
2006   Adam Morrison   
2005   Deron Williams   
2004   Ben Gordon   
2003   Carmelo Anthony   
2002   Mike Dunleavy   
2001   Pau Gasol   
2000   Darius Miles   
1999   Baron Davis   
1998   Raef LaFrentz
1997   Chauncey Billups   
1996   Shareef Abdur-Rahim   
1995   Jerry Stackhouse   
1994   Grant Hill   
1993   Anfernee Hardaway   
1992   Christian Laettner   
1991   Billy Owens   
1990   Chris Jackson   
1989   Sean Elliott   
1988   Charles Smith   
1987   Dennis Hopson   
1986   Chris Washburn   
1985   Benoit Benjamin   
1984   Michael Jordan   
1983   Rodney McCray   
1982   Dominique Wilkins   
1981   Buck Williams   
1980   Kevin McHale   

[slamtheking]

it's not the #3 itself that is of importance, it's who else was available at the third pick in those drafts. 

That said,  there's some top players that were taken in that slot and a lot of crap that was taken before much better players later in those drafts

[mr. dee]

I say it's a hit. There are more stars and solid contributors produced in that spot than busts.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Is there a psychology behind this? High level players who weren't picked 1 or 2 and therefore played a little more under-the-radar and with a bit more of a chip on their shoulder?

[timpiker]

If we keep it, I expect a star.

[Bobshot]

I wonder if you went through this type of analysis for the top 10 or 20 picks from year to year, what that would show?

Would the highest probability of success (i.e., drafting an NBA starter? all-star?) be in the order of the draft? Or would it be more or less random for the first 10 picks or so?

They say the draft is a dice throw. Is it really a dice throw, or is there real value in the higher picks? My guess is there has to be.

[action781]

I wonder if you went through this type of analysis for the top 10 or 20 picks from year to year, what that would show?

Would the highest probability of success (i.e., drafting an NBA starter? all-star?) be in the order of the draft? Or would it be more or less random for the first 10 picks or so?

They say the draft is a dice throw. Is it really a dice throw, or is there real value in the higher picks? My guess is there has to be.

I've seen analysis like this done before and I think even shared on cblog.  Hopefully somebody can share it if they recall it.

[Denis998]

Is there a psychology behind this? High level players who weren't picked 1 or 2 and therefore played a little more under-the-radar and with a bit more of a chip on their shoulder?

from what I know, the higher the pick the more the player is believed to be good, and in turn the better that player performs. Say Bender goes #2 and is branded "A 3 to 4 year development project" . If the Celtics pick someone like Hield at #3 and brands him "An NBA ready guard that is ready to contribute on a high level". Hield will most likely out perform Bender, and possibly on subsequent years. Its the whole self fulfilling prophecy thing, and maybe a correlation exists where the #1-2 picks are more "young budding all stars", and the 3rd pick is a more well rounded "safe pick".

[RedClaw33]

Looks like being top 5 is important...

http://saveourbucks.com/the-importance-of-a-top-5-pick/

According to NBA.com the 3rd pick is more successful than the 2nd....at least as a group.

http://www.nba.com/magic/gallery/cohen-8ball-history-picking-1-8-nba-draft-percentage-all-stars-1980

[Celtics18]

Interestingly, the number 9 pick has yielded 12 All Stars since 1980.  Only the number one and the number three have been better and the number two pick is tied with 12 as well.

[mr. dee]

Interestingly, the number 9 pick has yielded 14 All Stars since 1980.  Only the number one and the number three have been better.

1981 - Rolando Blackman (4x All-star)
1983 - Dale Ellis (All-star, All-NBA 3rd Team)
1984 - Otis Thorpe (All-star)
1985 - Charles Oakley (All-star, All-Defensive 1st Team, All-Defensive 2nd Team)
1997 - Tracy McGrady (7x All-star, 2x All-NBA 1st Team, 3x All-NBA 2nd Team, 2x All-NBA 3rd Team, 2x Scoring champion)
1998 - Dirk Nowitzki (MVP, Finals MVP, 13x All-star, 4x All-NBA 1st team, 5x All-NBA 2nd team, 3x All-NBA 3rd team , 50-40-90 club)
1999 - Shawn Marion (4x All-star, 2x All-NBA 3rd Team)
2002 - Amare Stoudamire (6x All-star, All-NBA 1st Team, 4x All-NBA second team)
2004 - Andre Iguodala (Finals MVP, All-Star, All-Defensive 1st Team, All-defensive 2nd Team)
2007 - Joakim Noah (DPOY, 2x All-Star, All-NBA 1st Team, 2x All-Defensive 1st Team, All-Defensive 2nd Team)
2009 - DeMar DeRozan (2x All-star)
2012 - Andre Drummond (All-Star, All-NBA 3rd Team, Rebound leader)

Am I missing someone? It's only 12.

[Celtics18]

Interestingly, the number 9 pick has yielded 14 All Stars since 1980.  Only the number one and the number three have been better.

1981 - Rolando Blackman (4x All-star)
1983 - Dale Ellis (All-star, All-NBA 3rd Team)
1984 - Otis Thorpe (All-star)
1985 - Charles Oakley (All-star, All-Defensive 1st Team, All-Defensive 2nd Team)
1997 - Tracy McGrady (7x All-star, 2x All-NBA 1st Team, 3x All-NBA 2nd Team, 2x All-NBA 3rd Team, 2x Scoring champion)
1998 - Dirk Nowitzki (MVP, Finals MVP, 13x All-star, 4x All-NBA 1st team, 5x All-NBA 2nd team, 3x All-NBA 3rd team , 50-40-90 club)
1999 - Shawn Marion (4x All-star, 2x All-NBA 3rd Team)
2002 - Amare Stoudamire (6x All-star, All-NBA 1st Team, 4x All-NBA second team)
2004 - Andre Iguodala (Finals MVP, All-Star, All-Defensive 1st Team, All-defensive 2nd Team)
2007 - Joakim Noah (DPOY, 2x All-Star, All-NBA 1st Team, 2x All-Defensive 1st Team, All-Defensive 2nd Team)
2009 - DeMar DeRozan (2x All-star)
2012 - Andre Drummond (All-Star, All-NBA 3rd Team, Rebound leader)

Am I missing someone? It's only 12.

Thank you.  My mistake.  I miscounted.  Still, that's an impressive group for the ninth pick.

[Celtics18]

Thanks for posting the list mr. Dee.  Those names are no joke.