High floor - low ceiling meanings

[Alleyoopster]

I hear the terms high and low floors as well as high and low ceilings associated with draft picks bandied about quite a bit lately on CB. Not sure what they meant. Did a Google search and this is what I believe they mean. Feel free to correct, add, or delete info if I am off a bit.

A player with a low floor is one with little success at the pre-NBA level. For example, Dragan Bender, Thon Maker, Zhou Qi.

A player with high ceilings are those who could potentially turn into stars or get significantly better in the future. Again, Bender, Maker and Qi make the list.
 
Thus, these players are generally considered low floor-high ceiling players.

Someone with significant success at the college level would be considered having a high floor, e.g., Buddy Hield, Jamal Murray, Kris Dunn.

Of these Kris Dunn might be considered to have the highest overall ceiling because of his more elite athleticism and better skill set. Hield and Murray would have a higher ceiling offensively because of their better shooting skills.

A player with a low ceiling is one who most feel will not get much better at the NBA level and has reached his growth potential. Jaylen Brown might fit this description because many think he lacks true basketball talent even though he's a gifted athlete. 

Jaylen was successful in college. Thus, he is considered to be a high floor-low ceiling player.

I think I better understand what these terms now mean. But, feel free to correct or clarify them better if you wish. 

[CelticsFan166]

The way I see it is that the "floor" is the worst-case scenario and the "ceiling" is the best case. For example, someone with a low floor and a high ceiling could either turn out to be a bust or a superstar, whereas someone with a high floor and a low ceiling is probably going to be at worst a solid NBA player but will probably not turn into a star.

[mrceltic]

Your understanding sounds just about right.

They are about the "potential" ranges and variance of prospects

Floors =  what they are projected to be "at worst"
Ceilings = what they are projected to be "at best"

Let's take our very own Marcus Smart and James Young as examples:

Smart is a high floor high ceiling prospect in my opinion based on his skillset and character
With his ceiling as Gary Payton (I hope)
While his floor is Tony Allen

Young on the other hand is a low ceiling low floor based on character reports and his limited skillset
With a ceiling of Kyle Korver
And a floor of a Chinese league player (or starter whatever sounds better)

Hoped that helped!

[PhoSita]

I don't think you are understanding what low floor means.


Low floor refers to the worst case scenario for a player.

A guy who wins NCAA player of the year, but who has physical limitations that make it hard to project him as able to play NBA defense and earn rotation minutes, might be considered to have a low floor.

Typically it is reserved for guys with little track record of success, because it's harder to say for sure that they can play at an NBA level.  But plenty of guys with great college numbers have low floors.  Jimmer Fredette, for example.  When he was drafted there were concerns he might never be able to defend at the NBA level, and that turned out to be right.

Jaylen Brown is a low floor high ceiling player because it's not clear he can actually play team basketball, but his physical tools make it seem like he could be really good if he ever does.

[Moranis]

You've generally got it right, but there are players that fall into all four groups i.e. low floor/low ceiling, low floor/high ceiling, high floor/low ceiling, and high floor/high ceiling.  Obviously the high floor/high ceiling players are the ones you want and you don't want the low floor/low ceiling player.  The other two categories depends a great deal on what the team goals are and what the team make-up is. 

Lebron James was your classic high floor/high ceiling player.  He is the type of player you want.  Other guys recently in that category were Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Davis.  They may not ever live up to the superstar potential they have, but they will be a very solid player (barring injury or tragedy).  A guy like Anthony Bennett was a low floor/high ceiling player.  He never came close to the ceiling and hasn't gotten much above the floor.  Andre Drummond was another such player, and he obviously went the other way i.e. way above the floor and close to the ceiling.  A guy like JJ Redick was a high floor/low ceiling player.  You always knew he was going to be able to shoot the ball and have a nice career in that role, but he was never going to be an all star.  You don't expect a low floor/low ceiling player to be in the league so there aren't much of them to go by, though I think a lot of people thought a guy like Fab Melo was in that category.   

[Eddie20]

You've generally got it right, but there are players that fall into all four groups i.e. low floor/low ceiling, low floor/high ceiling, high floor/low ceiling, and high floor/high ceiling.  Obviously the high floor/high ceiling players are the ones you want and you don't want the low floor/low ceiling player.  The other two categories depends a great deal on what the team goals are and what the team make-up is. 

Lebron James was your classic high floor/high ceiling player.  He is the type of player you want.  Other guys recently in that category were Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Davis.  They may not ever live up to the superstar potential they have, but they will be a very solid player (barring injury or tragedy).  A guy like Anthony Bennett was a low floor/high ceiling player.  He never came close to the ceiling and hasn't gotten much above the floor.  Andre Drummond was another such player, and he obviously went the other way i.e. way above the floor and close to the ceiling.  A guy like JJ Redick was a high floor/low ceiling player.  You always knew he was going to be able to shoot the ball and have a nice career in that role, but he was never going to be an all star.  You don't expect a low floor/low ceiling player to be in the league so there aren't much of them to go by, though I think a lot of people thought a guy like Fab Melo was in that category.

This is dead on. Nice use of examples too.