The jump in the salary cap is masking the value of non-lottery picks

[Ed Hollison]

If you were to take what you see and hear in the Boston sports media as gospel (get your self checked out if you do), you'd think that no pick outside the top 2 of this draft is worth anything.

Is this right? Well, clearly no. First and foremost, there are tons of star or near-star level players in this league who were late first and second round picks. Arguably the first and second most valuable guys on the Celtics fit into this category: Isaiah Thomas (#60) and Jae Crowder (#34). Anyway, everybody already knows this so let's put that point aside.

But what about the actual TRADE value of the Celtics non-lottery picks? I think we're in a unique environment right now where it seems their trade value is near zero, and I think it's because a unique thing is happening at this moment: the big step up in the salary cap.

Basically all teams have plenty of cap space this offseason, thanks to the cap jumping higher. What that means is that teams have no financial incentive to prioritize the draft (where you can get cheap role players for up to 4 years at a time) rather than free agency. Basically, everyone is thinking big, waiting to what they can reel in with their cap space. In other words, if you've got plenty of cap space, no big deal paying big for role players.

Once the dust settles and league salaries catch up to the higher cap (think Jared Sullinger getting 7 figures somewhere), then these picks are going to mean a great deal. With the new CBA, teams can't go over the luxury tax threshold year after year after year. So they're going to be scrambling for cheap salaries, and that means finding talent in the draft rather than free agency is going to be key. Why pay someone like Sullinger (potentially) $10+ million per year when you've got a guy you drafted last year at #20-40 who can give you 10-15 solid minutes off the bench for peanuts?

What does this mean for the Celtics? If there are savvy, far-sighted GMs out there that recognize this -- that we're in a unique short-term situation, and that pretty soon those types of picks are going to be valuable -- then Ainge shouldn't have too big a problem "consolidating" picks into better picks or veterans.

But if the whole league is just waiting to see how free agency shakes out this summer, then it's going to be much more difficult. It would be great if the Celtics could have a 24-man roster, and just field a whole other D-league team of draftees. But you can't do that, and you've already got some later picks you'd like to develop -- Young, Hunter, Rozier, Mickey -- crowding the end of the bench.

The only things you can do in that situation are 1) draft Europeans or other guys who can be "stashed" in other leagues, or 2) trade back into future years. And even these strategies aren't easy. That's Ainge's challenge right now.

Whatever you do, DO NOT trade those 2017 and 2018 Brooklyn picks unless absolutely necessary to reel in a superstar. You're a 48-win team on the rise with a super-young roster. The Brooklyn picks allow you to add POTENTIALLY ELITE talent under very cheap contracts to roster that could be capped out and challenging for a title in the coming years. It could be the difference between a title window of 2-3 years and one that lasts 10 years. Think of the Spurs adding Kawhi Leonard as Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker get old. Or think of what could have been if Len Bias hadn't tragically died. That's what we could be looking at.

Anyway, the point is that draft picks are valuable because they're cost controlled. It may not seem like a big deal now, but it's about to be right after the cap jumps. Don't assume these picks are worthless.

[loco_91]

Interesting take, but I think it's actually the opposite. Mark Cuban this year said that the value of mid-late 1st round picks was going up because the rookie scale isn't tied to the rising cap, so they are a smaller fraction of the cap. Everyone has cap space to sign vet role players, but the supply of vets hasn't gone up. Thus, the cost of signing non-max FA's is going to increase even relative to the new cap, and it will increase dramatically relative to the rookie scale.

[Csfan1984]

Think in three years this could be the case but by then if teams plan right they won't be in a bind even if they splurg. Of course there will be three or four teams that won't care but usually those kind of teams are playoff teams that can't trade any real picks for talent anyways. So though this seems like a big thing it's really nothing new. For teams it comes down to can you pay the tax when the time comes to have a vet driven team or do you have to have a few rookie contracts to keep $ right.