Would the Celtics be better off at this point if they had hired Hinkie?

[nickagneta]

Not even close.

Things we have that Philly doesn't:

1. 50-ish win team, 3rd lottery seed,
2. good players locked up on cheap contracts,
3. a legit all-star,
4. a great coach

Plus we have a ton of draft picks, one in the high-lottery.

How is Philly competing with that?

Let's not forget Ainge has a healthy respect from most agents as he constantly doing the right thing with older vets by releasing them or trading them to situations where they can get more playing time or onto a contending team. Danny also has a very good working relationship with other GMs where he helps to facilitate trades for them to better their teams.

This makes making trades and getting FAs he is pursuing to listen to his sales pitch and possibly sign much easier.

He gets it. Ainge knows when to tank and how. He knows not to tank for endless years but just a year every once in a while. He knows when a player's value is maxed and knows when to cut ties with a player. He has a very good drafting record, excellent trading record, excellent record getting players to sign at a value amount, and thus far, an excellent record at hiring head coaches.

Hinkie doesn't have nearly what Ainge has. This franchise wouldn't be as good as it currently is without Ainge. And maybe the only other GM I would want for the Celtics is entrenched in San Antonio and going nowhere.

[BDeCosta26]

I think over the 4 years, Danny aquired more assests than hinkie did in Philly.
Noel (good defender) , okafor (torn meniscus), and embiid (out 2 years), and philly pick this year. Vs 3 Brooklyn picks (likely to be top 5), Smart (good defender), IT4 (All Star), Jae Crowder (has been great both sides of floor), resigned AB (best on ball defender?), signed BS
I'd rather have Danny assuming Hinkie would have replicated what he did over in Philly.

Injuries surely turn the tide in Danny's favor. However, Hinkie's moves could elevate the 76's to an elite bracket if everyone comes back healthy next October. Imagine a front line of Embiid, Okafor, Noels and Dario Saric and their own number one pick? That alone will create nightmare match-ups for opposing teams. What if that pick turns out to be Ingram?

Should the LA pick fall out of the top 3 and they sign a top free agent. It's a slam dunk. Of course, good health, the LA pick, Daric and free agent signings all have to fall into place. There are a lot of "ifs' here. So, only time will tell. 
 

Here's the thing. If you put out a line up of Embiid, Okafor, Noel, Saric and a rookie high pick they still would be lucky to make the playoffs.

Noel and Okafor CAN NOT play together at all. Embiid, if he ever plays, won't match up well with either of those guys himself. Saric has never played an NBA game. Neither will have the rookie or Embiid. Minny has Rubio, Wiggins, LaVine and KAT with a decent supporting cast and they're in the high lottery. If they don't make a HUGE signing (very unlikely) or make a BIG trade (less unlikely, but unlikely), that team is still at least 3 years away from contending, and they'll have to trade AT LEAST 1 or 2 of Noel/Embiid/Okafor to make a workable team.

With all those high picks, in three years+ years, they could've build an identity and core for themselves. Just imagine a Philly team with Noel/Porzingas/Giannis and someone like Smart or Exum. That's a team you can start to build an identity with. You may move parts around later, but they all do different things and play different positions, and have some level of comparability on the floor. Plus, your not destroying yourself with FA's and veterans around the league.

It would take a whole lot moves to put Philly in a position to compete for a.500 record next season. And as long as the Noel/Embiid/Okafor trifecta is there, and as long as Embiid is off the court, they're no where near being good.

[sawick48]

Sam Hinkie is an idiot and a fraud.  That 13 page letter was laughable.  A man trying to dictate the narrative of his time spent as GM as one that was successful when the reality was he failed spectacularly.  The only credit he deserves is convincing the power that be to have the balls to try his hairbrained experiment.  Otherwise, all he did was create a culture of losing, have no goal, no plan, no accountability, create paranoia in the lockerroom, harrass other GMs and agents, and pick the wrong players.  The Noel trade can be defended, the Embiid one was bad at the time, and is worse now, the Okafor one was bad at the time, and worse now. He had other alternatives, and if he truly was committed to his own 'process' of swinging for the most upside he would've gone Exum over Embiid and KP over Okafor.  For as 'forward thinking' and revolutionary as he touted himself, he was taking dinosaurs for a version of the nba that was dying off ala a post expert in Okafor akin to Al Jefferson.

The Process was a joke from beginning to end.

And anyone with a brain saw it for what it was: an NBA2k16 franchise brought to real life, that would fail spectacularly.

[Alleyoopster]

I think over the 4 years, Danny aquired more assests than hinkie did in Philly.
Noel (good defender) , okafor (torn meniscus), and embiid (out 2 years), and philly pick this year. Vs 3 Brooklyn picks (likely to be top 5), Smart (good defender), IT4 (All Star), Jae Crowder (has been great both sides of floor), resigned AB (best on ball defender?), signed BS
I'd rather have Danny assuming Hinkie would have replicated what he did over in Philly.

Injuries surely turn the tide in Danny's favor. However, Hinkie's moves could elevate the 76's to an elite bracket if everyone comes back healthy next October. Imagine a front line of Embiid, Okafor, Noels and Dario Saric and their own number one pick? That alone will create nightmare match-ups for opposing teams. What if that pick turns out to be Ingram?

Should the LA pick fall out of the top 3 and they sign a top free agent. It's a slam dunk. Of course, good health, the LA pick, Daric and free agent signings all have to fall into place. There are a lot of "ifs' here. So, only time will tell. 
 

Here's the thing. If you put out a line up of Embiid, Okafor, Noel, Saric and a rookie high pick they still would be lucky to make the playoffs.

Noel and Okafor CAN NOT play together at all. Embiid, if he ever plays, won't match up well with either of those guys himself. Saric has never played an NBA game. Neither will have the rookie or Embiid. Minny has Rubio, Wiggins, LaVine and KAT with a decent supporting cast and they're in the high lottery. If they don't make a HUGE signing (very unlikely) or make a BIG trade (less unlikely, but unlikely), that team is still at least 3 years away from contending, and they'll have to trade AT LEAST 1 or 2 of Noel/Embiid/Okafor to make a workable team.

With all those high picks, in three years+ years, they could've build an identity and core for themselves. Just imagine a Philly team with Noel/Porzingas/Giannis and someone like Smart or Exum. That's a team you can start to build an identity with. You may move parts around later, but they all do different things and play different positions, and have some level of comparability on the floor. Plus, your not destroying yourself with FA's and veterans around the league.

It would take a whole lot moves to put Philly in a position to compete for a.500 record next season. And as long as the Noel/Embiid/Okafor trifecta is there, and as long as Embiid is off the court, they're no where near being good.

Not sure I would agree. I remember watching the Celtics trying to get shots off against the 76’s earlier in the season. They were getting them blocked left and right. Imagine adding two more front line players to that mix.

One of them being Saric. Sure, he never played an NBA game. On the other hand he’s considered one of the best players in Europe playing on one of the best teams in that league. He has a high BBIQ which should translate into better play for both Okafor and Noel. Add in a top 4 pick. Should that pick turn out to be Ingram, then they'll be untouchable. 

Add in the possibility of Embiid’s return, plenty of cash to sign free agents and possibly LA’s pick.  I can’t see many teams beating such a lineup. Comparing them to Minnesota? I can't see the comparison...Rubio, Lavine, Wiggins, Towns vs. five top 5 picks and more? Plus, my thinking on Minny is that they are tanking. So, we really don't know how good they really are. 

[mctyson]

One thing worth mentioning... We took our sweet time with rondo in 2014 after trading away KG and Pierce for future picks... We essentially tanked by my definition of tanking (acquiring long range assets that sets the team up to fail in the short term).  We tanked all the way to Marcus smart.

Rondo was injured.  With a healthy Rondo, that team might be good enough to not fall to the #6 pick (see next comment), especially with Stevens coaching them.  I wouldn't consider that season tanking.

You need to provide evidence that the Cs willingly held Rondo out of any games in 2014 to even make the case of that the tank was on.

I truly believe ainge preferred to bottom out last season. 

When Rondo was traded last season, the team was on pace to win 35 games.  That is the exact situation I mentioned above - too good to get a high draft pick (but still a crappy team). 

The reason I do not agree with you on Ainge is that Rondo was traded for Jae Crowder.  If he wanted to tank, you trade Rondo for a 1st and an expiring.  Instead we get the best player in the deal and a guy who changed the near-term direction of the franchise.

You could argue that the true tank trade was sending Green away for just a pick.  But I could argue that maybe Stevens and Ainge both saw some potential when Crowder was added, and Green was simply standing in Jae's way.  That and Green isn't very good, it was addition-by-subtraction.

This team has never been above tanking.

No team in the the NBA is above being terrible because it happens to every franchise.  'Tanking' as a strategy is acceptable in my view if by mid-season you know you are going nowhere, or injuries decimate your squad (ex New Orleans probably should have tanked harder this year). 

'Tanking' is not acceptable in my view when you openly start every season telling the world that you don't care about winning any games, all you care about is getting the highest pick in the draft.  That's what Hinkie brought to the NBA, and I am glad he didn't last.

[Celtics4ever]

Nope. Philly is a mess.   How can you even think that.   Now they have a culture of losing there.

[cltc5]

Nope. Philly is a mess.   How can you even think that.   Now they have a culture of losing there.

Kinda like how golden state and clippers had a culture of losing until same tanktacular years brought them in some stars . Phillis problem is chemistry.  They have none of it.  Those same picks on this team and we're looking st Ecf potential right now.  Instead we're looking at 1st to second round exit.  The culture excuse is sorely overrated

[hwangjini_1]

who knows with hypothetical questions such as this one?

however, clearly in the minds of the sixer leadership hinkie's plan was a failure and so they fired him. i expect the same result would have occurred here. a 5-6 year rebuild, truly truly awful basketball during that time, no progress as a team, and only one game plan - trust in luck. i doubt celtics management would have put up with this disaster.

but let's wait and see. will other GMs decide that hinkie was right and implement his plan? given its current state of failure and the loss of a GM's job, it seems doubtful.

[PhoSita]

We don't know what Ainge's strategy for this rebuild would have looked if he hadn't been able to secure those Brooklyn picks at the start of it.

Knowing those picks are coming down the pike has made it much easier to consider moves that make the team better in the short term, because the possibility of getting major draft assets via Brooklyn is still there.

[colincb]

The NBA community pressured the owner of the Sixers to get some one to replace Hinkie and I don't recall them ever being that directly involved with one of their franchises, not even the Ted Stepien Cavaliers.

Hinkie will never be an NBA GM again.

[nickagneta]

I think Hinkie's plan was doomed to fail because he just didn't take into account the human element involved. His plan was all about the numbers. The plan called for losing the most games, garnering the most ping pong balls, reducing the chances of missing in the lottery, drafting, rinsing and repeating for several years, all while collecting assets. Then, hopefully, you will have found one to three stars and some other  assets and then attempt a coup of an off season by pulling an Ainge 2007-08 move and trading the assets to add to the stars and be a contender.

Sounds easy, and it is! It's a simple thing to do if you are playing a game like NBA2K16 or fantasy basketball. You can do those things when people are just numbers but you can't do them in real life.

The human element is ignored in the above games. There's no fan base to have to appease, you know, the humans that show up at games and spend money or show up at places to buy team paraphernalia. Keeping fans interested and happy is the name of the game in the NBA. Its an entertainment industry and you have to keep the customer coming back. Horrific losing done on purpose over years, does not keep the customer coming back!

Tanking like Hinkie also doesn't account for how players and coaches will react. Extended losing sours both players and coaches and makes it so they don't want to stick around or give their best effort when they know that management's goal is not to win. Personnel management is one of the most important parts of any strong business and this treatment of players and coaches goes against everything a company should do in creating the optimal working environment for their employees to succeed.

Add in the alienation of player agents and other GMs who look to you as a source to please their clients or bosses through signings and trades and you have cut off your ability to work at optimal capacity within the NBA environment. Suddenly the league is getting complaints from owners and agents about the way you are doing business and the league starts to question whether you are hurting the league's overall appeal. They start calling into question whether you are playing fast and loose with the integrity of the game.

When dealing with humans as a product for sale(entertainment), one must always take into consideration the unpredictable variables that human emotion and behavior bring into the equation. Hinkie ignored this completely. By not fostering an environment of winning and development, he doomed the people in his system to failure. By not caring about winning, Hinkie p!ssed off his fan base who have been leaving the team in droves. By not working in a professional manner as other GMs have by looking to improve the team through signings and trades, he has created a situation where other GMs don't want to deal with Philly and agents don't want to send their clients to Philly to play.

A three to five year tank might work in games, but not in real life. It causes too many negative emotions that are seriously counterproductive to building a winning team in the NBA.

[Snakehead]

A three to five year tank might work in games, but not in real life. It causes too many negative emotions that are seriously counterproductive to building a winning team in the NBA.

TP, great post Nick.  And I will add for myself that the league was set up to encourage this and they should finally change these rules not to encourage this.  They have themselves to blame and I get why someone would employ this strategy. 

But it is very flawed in all the ways you bring up.  The biggest point you didn't hang on being the fans are not respected and that is what this is all about.