Give Sully a 4 year 32 million deal?

[Tr1boy]

The thing is, restricted free agents often don't get the deals they are looking to get.  I think someone probably takes a chance on him with 10mil/year but he does have some red flags that will undoubtedly scare some teams away.  Between his injury history and his conditioning and weight issues, he might not get the offer his production would suggest he deserves.

This usually is because the RFA's team makes it clear they will match the offers.  Teams don't want their caps tied up in an offer sheet when they don't expect to get the guy anyway. 

But I suspect we will make it fairly clear we won't match high $ offers, which may make them more likely (though we might try to engineer a S+T).  Plus more cap space = not as punitive to have some of it trapped in an offer sheet for a few days.  So this may be less likely this offseason than past years.

What possible reason would we have to make it clear we wouldn't match a high offer?  That makes no sense.

If we aren't interested in keeping him, especially on a high dollar contract?  And as a favor to David Falk, who we'll almost certainly be working with in the future.  We don't have to send out a press release for teams to understand our intentions.  I mean, do you think RFAs literally never switch teams unless the signing team is calling the original team's bluff?  These things do happen.

I'm sure there are teams who don't want to re-sign a player, or teams who just don't want a player at a certain price, however, most restricted free agents just end up re-signing with their original team.  Players get a reality check when they can't bring in the offer they thought they would get.

Absolutely, I'm just saying I think we'll be in that first category with Sully.  I think we will weigh his play over the last few years much more than his improvement in the contract year. 

I could be wrong though, maybe we will keep him here.  But money is definitely going to be flying fast and furious this offseason; we will see some absolutely bonkers contracts before it's over.

Sully is hitting the outside shot at a better rate this year and he is down low a bit more (so he is getting slightly more rebounds), but he has basically been the same player the last 3 years with slight improvements along the way (which is what you would expect).  Sully hasn't taken a massive leap this year.  A bit more consistent and the shot is falling more, that is about it.

I disagree. He has noticeably improved this season thanks mainly to his improved conditioning.  He doesn't look gassed out there , especially in the 2nd half. CBS is able to put him out longer without worrying he will miss defensive duties/get lazy. 

His shooting touch looks like has improved. Per stats maybe not but it is looking better in the last 3-4 games (new follow through). 

Overall I would like to keep the guy. But if he wants max forget it. If he wants max , he has to be a max like player, which he is not.  He may never be an all star but potentially a solid/consistent a pain in the ass to play David West like contributor for years to come.

I would go up to 12 million a year (due to the rise in cap).  But for comparison sake, Sully should not be making much more than Crowder, AB imo

[crimson_stallion]

I disagree. He has noticeably improved this season thanks mainly to his improved conditioning.  He doesn't look gassed out there , especially in the 2nd half. CBS is able to put him out longer without worrying he will miss defensive duties/get lazy. 

Why is everybody seemingly completely ignoring the fact that Sully is only playing 24 MPG this year - the lowest since his rookie year?

For a guy who is infamous for his conditioning/fitness struggles, this seems to me a pretty risky thing to ignore.

Everybody is saying he looks less gassed, and hence must be better conditioned.  Does nobody consider that he might look less gassed because he's playing less minutes?

In games he's started he's averaging 26 MPG and shooting 45% from the field
In games he's come off the bench e's averaging 20 MPG and shooting 57% from the field

This may not be a singnificant factor...or it may be.

[danglertx]

A few things.

1) There is almost no chance that Sully will end up signing for anything less than $10M a year based on talent / youth alone.  He is a 23 year old  guy with career 16/10/3 Per-36 numbers in a league where Iman Shumpert (a 25 year old with career 11/5/3 Per-36) got $9M a year.

2) The dramatic (around +$20M) rise in the cap means that there are going to be probably about 20+ teams who have enough cap space to sign at least one max contract player.  This means it's going to be a buyer's market in a huge way - teams will be trying to outbid each other for the top 10-15 guys on the market, and it's going to drive contracts up in a huge way as a result.

3) The 2016 free agent class is basically structured like this:

Top Tier (stars):
Kevin Durant
Dwyane Wade (likely to remain with Miami)
Kobe Bryant (likely to retire)
Andre Drummond
Al Horford
Bradley Beal

Second tier (borderline stars):
Rajon Rondo
Mike Conley
Al Jefferson
Brandon Jennings
Eric Gordon
Joakhim Noah (despite his low mins, teams WILL chase him)

Third Tier (prospects with star potential):
Evan Fournier
Harrison Barnes
Tony Wroten
Jared Sullinger

So that's basically anywhere from 12 to 15 players who are above Sully in the Free agent market, but only about 4 of those (Drummond, Horford, Jefferson, Noah) are bigs.  That means  that once those top 4 bigs are signed to contracts, every remaining team who needs a skilled big man will be getting in to a bidding war over Sully - all armed with enough cap space to give a max contract. 

It's a dream scenario for Sully.  As long as Boston continues to limit his minutes to no more than about 24 or 25 a game he should continue to perform as beastly as he has thus far - and as long as that's the case, it's almost certain that there will be at least 3 or 4 teams fighting hard for his services.

Look back in history and you will see how things worked out for guys like Omer Asik, Josh Smith, Tristan Thompson, Chandler Parsons, etc.  All it takes is for one team (out of 30) to be willing to stupidly overpay, and before you know it you have Sully signed up on a max deal.

The thing is, Danny and Stevens no doubt know that Sully's performance this year won't be sustainable if he is ever asked to play anywhere near 30 minute a game.  His percentages will all drop to the floor. 

So the best thing they can do is play him < 25 MPG (and hide behind Bostons front-court logjam as an excuse) so that he continues to produce great all season and pump up his trade value - then pull a trade before the deadline.

It's the best scenario for Boston, really.  As much as I would like to see Sully here, I am extremely confident that some team is going to overpay for him next season.   If that happens Danny has two options:

1) Match the offer, and end up committing way too much Salary to a guy who can't play more than 6th man minutes

2) Decline to match, and watch him walk away for nothing

Neither is a great scenario to be in, so orchestrating a trade (and getting something back) seems like the best way to go.

Yeah I know - it's sad to see him go.  I know, he's playing great.  I know, we'd like to see him back.  But Danny has always handled his role with a "business first" mentality, where he makes deals with his head over his heart.  Your heart would tell you to match and keep him here, but your head will tell you that's not an option.

Interesting analysis.  I'd look at it this way though, you aren't paying max money for a backup.  So what teams could Sully realistically start for right now, either at an undersized 5 or as a four.  There aren't as many starting gigs as you'd think.

Off the top of my head?

Chicago (upgrade over Gibson and Mirotic, and Noah is likely gone in FA)
Brooklyn (They'd be better off with Lopez/Sully/Young than Lopez/Young/Johnson)
Charlotte (Jefferson is a FA, and Sully is better than any of their other bigs)
New York (Probably an upgrade over Robin Lopez)
Indiana (better then Mahinmi, Hill and Allen + would allow George to move back to SF)
Toronto (he's better than any big on the roster other than Jonas)
Washington (significant upgrade over Hump)
Denver (possible upgrade over Nurkic, and a good match with Faried)
Golden State (Bogut only has so much juice left in him, and Sully+Green would work well)
Dallas (definite upgrade over Pachulia / McGee, and they somebody to carry on form Dirk)
Timberwolves (he might fit better with Towns than Dieng does)
Houston (slight upgrade over Jones, who may leave in FA)
Portland (upgrade over pretty much every big on their roster)
Phoenix (upgrade over Morris, who has also been disgruntled since his brother got traded)
OKC (upgrade over Asik, Perkins and Anderson)
San Antonio (potential replacement for Duncan, likely to retire soon, in a Sully/LMA frontcourt)

Not all of these are likely, but they're all possibilities.

Now take off the teams that are going to be willing to make an overweight and undersized 5 who has conditioning issues as well as foot problems one of their three max guys.

I'd also take issue with some of those teams.  Chicago, Toronto, Washington, Minnesota, Denver, Golden State, Houston, OKC, and San Antonio as upgrades.  Then teams like Phoenix seem like a style mismatch.  Then figure in teams that have other positions to address and not much space.  I see only a couple potential landing spots for Sully.  I'd be shocked if sully gets anything near Tristan Thompson money.

[Moranis]

The thing is, restricted free agents often don't get the deals they are looking to get.  I think someone probably takes a chance on him with 10mil/year but he does have some red flags that will undoubtedly scare some teams away.  Between his injury history and his conditioning and weight issues, he might not get the offer his production would suggest he deserves.

This usually is because the RFA's team makes it clear they will match the offers.  Teams don't want their caps tied up in an offer sheet when they don't expect to get the guy anyway. 

But I suspect we will make it fairly clear we won't match high $ offers, which may make them more likely (though we might try to engineer a S+T).  Plus more cap space = not as punitive to have some of it trapped in an offer sheet for a few days.  So this may be less likely this offseason than past years.

What possible reason would we have to make it clear we wouldn't match a high offer?  That makes no sense.

If we aren't interested in keeping him, especially on a high dollar contract?  And as a favor to David Falk, who we'll almost certainly be working with in the future.  We don't have to send out a press release for teams to understand our intentions.  I mean, do you think RFAs literally never switch teams unless the signing team is calling the original team's bluff?  These things do happen.

I'm sure there are teams who don't want to re-sign a player, or teams who just don't want a player at a certain price, however, most restricted free agents just end up re-signing with their original team.  Players get a reality check when they can't bring in the offer they thought they would get.

Absolutely, I'm just saying I think we'll be in that first category with Sully.  I think we will weigh his play over the last few years much more than his improvement in the contract year. 

I could be wrong though, maybe we will keep him here.  But money is definitely going to be flying fast and furious this offseason; we will see some absolutely bonkers contracts before it's over.

Sully is hitting the outside shot at a better rate this year and he is down low a bit more (so he is getting slightly more rebounds), but he has basically been the same player the last 3 years with slight improvements along the way (which is what you would expect).  Sully hasn't taken a massive leap this year.  A bit more consistent and the shot is falling more, that is about it.

Besides a contract year, I think a few things are making him more efficient:

1. Not having to be a primary offensive weapon with IT more familiar with the playbook.
2. Coming off the bench/limited minutes (sub 30)
3. Competing with four other bigs plus Jerebko and even Mickey.

He seems more passive so far this year. In the right spot at the right time. Last year seemed like as soon as it hit his hands a 3PA was the most likely outcome.

I agree with your numbered paragraphs, but that just leads to a nominal improvement, which is what Sully has done.  That is why I don't see this as a contract year situation.  He hasn't made this massive jump.  He is healthy and the team has more defined roles for him and everyone else.  Modest improvement made.  That is Sullinger.

[ederson]

I would go up to 12 million a year (due to the rise in cap).  But for comparison sake, Sully should not be making much more than Crowder, AB imo

You can`t make such comparisons considering the huge changes in the salary cap. In normal situations you are right. The better the player the higher the check but for the next couple of years we`ll see a lot of "strange" contracts

[Csfan1984]

I let Sully walk. He is only a role player. You have Mickey and likely with the Nets pick you are taking Bender, Lab, Ingram or Simmons. 3 of 4 are PFs.  The odds are you don't need Sully going forward. Use the $ on a max for Barnes or someone else. We don't want to become the Bruins, in cap hell because we overpaid bench players. We need elite starting talent.

[Donoghus]

I let Sully walk. He is only a role player. You have Mickey and likely with the Nets pick you are taking Bender, Lab, Ingram or Simmons. 3 of 4 are PFs.  The odds are you don't need Sully going forward. Use the $ on a max for Barnes or someone else. We don't want to become the Bruins, in cap hell because we overpaid bench players. We need elite starting talent.

I try to move him first.  Help try and clear up the front court logjam by trade. 

If you can't move him & can't get him on a reasonable contract (which I don't see happening), then you let him walk.

[Rosco917]

I wouldn't mind seeing him sign a team friendly contract, or let just let him walk.

He's an undersized back up center, he'll never be in condition to play his natural position of power forward. If you've looked closely, the listing of his weight has gone from 260 lb. (a prayer) to the real 280 lb. It's a matter of time before that foot or back problem resurfaces, he takes time off, and gets back to 300 lb.

Sooner or later, the Celtics will find a suitable starting center, and Sully could be a decent/good bench
player to bring off the bench at certain times of the game, for short minutes.

[slamtheking]

I can't see another team paying more than that for him. And he is certainly is not a 6 million per year guy.

Fair deal?

he's worth more than $8 the way he's playing.  if he continues at this level through the season, he'll get 10-12 from someone if not more.

[Tr1boy]

I can't see another team paying more than that for him. And he is certainly is not a 6 million per year guy.

Fair deal?

he's worth more than $8 the way he's playing.  if he continues at this level through the season, he'll get 10-12 from someone if not more.

I agree.  8-10 is the number Danny can start at.  Sully's camp wanting 14-15. Settling for 12

A side question. If KO was in the same situation as Sully, what would you sign him for? Also 12 million per season?

[LooseCannon]

Sullinger's camp should be starting with the premise that he is at least as good as Enes Kanter or Tristan Thompson and deserves to be paid a similar percentage of the cap.