$10 million a year? Pretty sure Harris will get offered the Max.
why wouldn't he? The cap's goin up approx $40 mill over the next two years, yes? This is a tidal shift in the economics of the game. I'm normally a value guy, but I don't think Danny should be penny-wise this off-season. I feel the opportunity cost is high right now, but it's gonna be much higher, and securing a good FA talent, however unlikely, should be done at all costs.
It's likely more teams will spend into the tax this year, knowing they have a salary cap bump next year to assist in avoiding the repeater tax.
Just because the cap is going up, doesn't mean money should just get thrown around recklessly. A max contract for Tobias Harris would be about $67m over four years. Even with the rising cap that's a VERY big commitment and a VERY large expenditure for a guy who is (right now) an 'good starter' at best.
His production right now is a small step above Jeff Green/Avery Bradley level. Not evne a full step above - about a half step above. Those guys were both given contacts around $7m-$9m a year. Fair value for Harris is about $11M max - $12M at a REAL stretch.
Overspending a bit is fine, but overspending by $5m - $6m a year is a lot...
I was basing my Tobias 'max' around 15 million/year, which Tobias will likely get, and could have been more exact. Nonetheless, Green and Avery's deals were signed under the old cap, so those numbers are moot, imo, overnight. New economics. I would offer that $7-9 million then, = approximately $10-$13 million now.
Since the post, Demarre Carroll has gotten 4yrs/$60 million, Thad Young 4yrs/$50 million, Danny Green 4 yrs/$45 million. Millsap and Lopez reported offers of $20 million/yr.
Tobias is 22 yrs old and improving. Have to pay a premium for future growth. Signing him without giving up an asset as a Restricted FA is another boon. However, I would gladly offer some middle-of-the-road sign-n-trade assets to Orlando to insure the transaction, and also not have to wait 3 days to find out whether we get him. In truth, he's not my first or second choice, but the opportunity cost of not making a move this summer is high.
Anecdotally, it will also break the "Free Agents don't come to Boston illusion", and upgrade the talent on the roster going into 2016. This is very central to our chances of upgrading next year as well, anecdotal as that is. I think the new cap will have consequences that haven't been fully fleshed out yet, and is why Adam Silver wanted the cap increases to be smoothed out over a few years. Time to let go of what old value is, and get an asset here and now. When chaos is to ensue(new cap), there is a premium for certainty, one I feel we should pay this summer.
He will easily get $14-15 million a year, and is probably value at that price. I disagree that it's a very big commitment, and a very big expenditure. There will be much more liquidity in the league with all those dollars swashing around = easier to move/trade if he's not an exact fit moving forward. We have a slight 'first mover' advantage in the NBA New Economic era by having cap space this year, if we can use it to sign someone. jmho.
Topic: Ziller predicts to the C's - Harris, Crowder, Davis (Read 15640 times)