Poll

What are the C's playoff chances?

0-20%
2 (4.9%)
20-30%
2 (4.9%)
30-50%
7 (17.1%)
>50%
30 (73.2%)

Total Members Voted: 39

Author Topic: Our odds of making the playoffs: under 50%  (Read 6395 times)

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Re: Our odds of making the playoffs: under 50%
« Reply #30 on: April 14, 2015, 02:38:40 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Now that we are in, what's the odds that we keep one of the 4 straight losses to single digits?

This depends a bit on whether we play Cleveland or Atlanta. When we are on the road in Cleveland I would make an educated guess we would be 10.5 point underdogs, when we are home we would probably be something like 5.5 underdogs. The odds that we would lose all 4 games by 10 or greater would be something like 2%.

Atlanta all of those lines would be something like 1 to 1.5 points lower (maybe greater depending on Millsap health). The vegas based chance against the Hawks would be under 1%

Re: Our odds of making the playoffs: under 50%
« Reply #31 on: April 14, 2015, 03:03:37 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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Now that we are in, what's the odds that we keep one of the 4 straight losses to single digits?
ever the fountain of optimism.

I think this team will get a win regardless of playing Cleveland or Atlanta.   Lebron can't defend everyone

Re: Our odds of making the playoffs: under 50%
« Reply #32 on: April 14, 2015, 03:07:22 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Now that we are in, what's the odds that we keep one of the 4 straight losses to single digits?
ever the fountain of optimism.

I think this team will get a win regardless of playing Cleveland or Atlanta.   Lebron can't defend everyone

Here are our best lineups (or at least, our best scoring lineups) in every win over the second half of the season:
http://bkref.com/tiny/MTLSw

Suffice it to say you've got more confidence in this team than I do.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Our odds of making the playoffs: under 50%
« Reply #33 on: April 14, 2015, 03:08:50 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Now that we are in, what's the odds that we keep one of the 4 straight losses to single digits?

This depends a bit on whether we play Cleveland or Atlanta. When we are on the road in Cleveland I would make an educated guess we would be 10.5 point underdogs, when we are home we would probably be something like 5.5 underdogs. The odds that we would lose all 4 games by 10 or greater would be something like 2%.

Atlanta all of those lines would be something like 1 to 1.5 points lower (maybe greater depending on Millsap health). The vegas based chance against the Hawks would be under 1%
I think it's very possible the LeBron beats the snot out of us for 4 straight games. 

But who knows.  Brad Stevens might have some tricks.  It will be interesting to see how he adapts from game to game.  He's never coached playoff basketball.  He'll definitely be prepared with whatever exploits he can find.

Re: Our odds of making the playoffs: under 50%
« Reply #34 on: April 14, 2015, 03:15:30 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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I really don't think we'll get blown out much in the playoffs.  Since Feb 1st (my semi-arbitrary split between Bad Cs and Good Cs) we've only been beaten by double digits 3 times - Cleveland, SA, and Clippers.  And only the Cleveland game was really a blowout, with the other 2 being by 12 and 13 points.  We're not so great at beating top teams, but good at staying with them.

I wouldn't be shocked if we got blown out once out of 4 losses, but I think it's more likely our losses will be of the "scrap all game, hang in within striking distance but get overwhelmed down the stretch" variety.