Marcus Smart: Guess the guard by the numbers game.

[Fan from VT]

Alright, so I'm trying to get psyched about Marcus Smart. Here's my thought process. There's a recent history of quality guards with success in college going high in the draft and really panning out. Not necessarily #1 either. If Marcus Smart had come out after 1 year, he probably would have been the #1 or #2 pick in the Nerlens Noel/Anthony Bennett draft, and the story would be quite different. As it is, with all the hyped freshman, I think it was easy for the bloom to come off the rose so to speak for a draft prospect the second time around when surrounded by outstanding freshman prospects.

As an aside, another thing I'm getting excited about is the reputation of Marcus as a potential top end defender. That should translate well.

So let's take a look at Marcus Smart and his college stats and info, just for fun. We'll do a list of names, and a list of seasons (freshman year and last year of school before drafted) and see what it looks like. Note that some came out after 1 year, so there may be an odd number of seasons. For players with 3+ years, just the first and last seasons. FYI, Rondo and Beal didn?t do combine stuff apparently. General criteria, with some exceptions, were high picks (with some exceptions, like rondo, Teague, Lawson), college successes, at major NCAA programs, nba success (all to varying degrees), for point guards/combo guards. Can you match them up?
Oh, and I used Sports-reference, which has oddly incomplete data for per 40, PF's etc.

Chris Paul
Bradley Beal
Derron Williams
John Wall
Derrick Rose
Russell Westbrook
Ray Felton
Jeff Teague
Ty Lawson
Kirk Hinrich
Marcus Smart
Rajon Rondo
OJ Mayo

First, Based on combine numbers (no Rondo or Beal)


Second based on Freshman season


Third based on Last College Season before drafted (No Wall, Rose, Beal, Mayo).



So, can you figure out who is who? Discussion of how he compares to other guards is to come after this little game.


Edit: to be clear, the sort order is different each time, so option 1 of each isn't the same player.

[DraftSmart33]

5-12-8 is Smart.  (just a guess)

[coffee425]

i'll just put the ones i'm pretty sure of.*full disclosure: OkState alumni, big smart follower

Combine numbers:
1 and 2: Westbrook or Rose. They're identical, and it's shown so far in their play
5: Smart

Freshman Year
Westbrook is in the first 4 options: kid barely played
Rose is 10
Smart is 11

Last College year
Smart is 8
Russ is... 1?

how'd i do boss?

[coffee425]

i'll just put the ones i'm pretty sure of. *full disclosure: OkState alumni, big smart follower

Combine numbers:
1 and 2: Westbrook or Rose. They're identical, and it's shown so far in their play
5: Smart

Freshman Year
Westbrook is in the first 4 options: kid barely played
Rose is 10
Smart is 11

Last College year
Smart is 8
Russ is... 1?

how'd i do boss?

[Fan from VT]

i'll just put the ones i'm pretty sure of. *full disclosure: OkState alumni, big smart follower

Combine numbers:
1 and 2: Westbrook or Rose. They're identical, and it's shown so far in their play
5: Smart

Freshman Year
Westbrook is in the first 4 options: kid barely played
Rose is 10
Smart is 11

Last College year
Smart is 8
Russ is... 1?

how'd i do boss?

Alright. Nailed the Smart ones. The key for Smart is look at those steals!!! 3.0 and 2.7 per game. For his combine stuff, the wingspan and bench press stand out like a sore thumb.


For the combine, #1 (tallest player) is OJ Mayo. #2 is John Wall (I wasn't aware of just how big and athletic he actually is). Westbrook is actually #4, similar size and leaping to Smart with Smart getting more bench press and Westbrook faster in a sprint (though Smart slightly better agility). Rose is actually #8 edit - Rose is 7. I thought he was taller, but he's got a big wingspan for his height (similar proportion to Smart, has a higher vertical than I thought (40) and was a bit slow on the agility but fast in a sprint.

For Freshman year, westbrook is in fact #1. No playing time! (guess he surpassed collison by now, huh?). Yes, Rose is #10. Smart is #11, as guessed.

For Final year, #1 is actually RONDO! Then yes, Smart is 8.



Edited - Rose is actually #7 on the combine list, not 8.

[The One]

Cool exercise...when will you post all of the answers.

[Future Celtics Owner]

#5 should be Smart but the stats don't match up......am I reading this wrong

edit: i get it

[MetroGlobe]

Smart is 5, 11, 8.

We know it's 5 because he has the lowest lane agility time and a 6'9" swingspan.  So that's a lock.

I'm iffy on the freshman year because I wasn't paying attention.  So that one is a guess.  But I'm 99% sure he's 8 in the third list.  The stats match almost perfectly to my recollection of Kevin O'Connor's draft guide.

[Boris Badenov]

TP for the analysis.

I had done some poking around on my own in sports-ref a week ago, and found Smart to be pretty unique statistically:

http://cbbref.com/tiny/QOmzF

(Spoiler alert, this will give you the answer to the last "quiz" question.)

[Fan from VT]

I'll do the full answers with some random thoughts after work.

[coffee425]

This just tells me that he's got all of the physical tools to rock this league. The only guys that are within his measurements/athleticism are Rose and Westbrook.

just gotta say this... for those that keep saying he cant shoot. Westbrook was 41% and 27% during his first year; and frankly i still think Russ cant shoot. Like it matters for his game.

[Fan from VT]

This just tells me that he's got all of the physical tools to rock this league. The only guys that are within his measurements/athleticism are Rose and Westbrook.

just gotta say this... for those that keep saying he cant shoot. Westbrook was 41% and 27% during his first year; and frankly i still think Russ cant shoot. Like it matters for his game.

There's actually one guy who is as or more impressive than all those guys in the measurements/athleticism, and it's John Wall (line #2 in the combine list).

[Fan from VT]

Ok, here's the answers

Combine:



Freshman:



Last Season:



Random notes:
-   Wall has a lot higher assist numbers than I expected.
-   Wall is a ridiculous athlete with ridiculous proportions
-   As is Rose
-   Rose?s college scoring numbers were somewhat surprisingly low, even for a freshman to me (just based on how well he scores in the NBA)
-   Rondo?s assists were lower than expected.
-   I thought Deron was bigger

For Smart, I am very intrigued by his across-the-board stat stuffing. High rebound is good. Solid assists. LOVE his steals, tops of the list as freshman and sophomore. Fantastic marker of athleticism. Love love love his free throw attempts. Again, top numbers each year. Very good sign, usually a steady skill. (Pierce was one of the best). Solid percentage too, but needs to improve. Love his agility. Love the bench press strength (best of the list). Love the wingspan. Solid height. A little underwhelmed by his leaping, but still solid. Surprisingly slow sprint, but I don?t care about that too much. A bit worried about his outside shooting, especially with Rondo and Bradley, neither of whom are really truly excellent shooters, though Bradley is becoming ok in certain spots, but not a shooter. Hopefully he works on the three to add to his game.

I?m hopeful now. I think it?s reasonable to expect him to at least be Teague level. Most likely he should at least get to the Bledsoe level of this last season: Disruptive scorer, solid rebounds, solid assists, disruptive defender. I think he has an unlikely (just based on odds) but measurable chance of being as good as Westbrook/Wall, with a very very unlikely but actually plausible (in that you can see the path he?d take to get there and he has no innate obvious barriers) chance to be on or close to the level of derrick rose, essentially good at the same things. If not that, then poor man?s rose (aggressive dribble penetration, relentless athletic motor, drawing fouls at an elite level, add in some good defense). Just have to see if his handle is up to caliber in the NBA (an admittedly big if).

Point is , there's nothing obvious in his size, athleticism, or numbers to suggest he can't be a very good point guard, and there's some very promising markers. Not out of the question for a top-6 pick with proven college success at a young age to be a very good pro. Let's hope!

[rollie mass]

marcus smart also seems to have a durability factor that exum might not have or gordon-the ability to absorb punishment going to hoop-these big thin jumpers got to come down after being bounced--the ability to get over the top on screens with his strength and mass----jabari parker and smart look nba ready--