Fire Ainge

[Lucky17]

Too bad the magic will only last 3-4 years, until Rondo is 32 and will beat noone driving to the basket anymore. Let's hope we can build this "contender" quickly enough to beat the Heat or Thunder, then.

If age 32 is the expiration date on relevancy in the NBA, I look forward to the imminent demise of the Heat's Big Three.

Actually, make that Big Two. Wade's already cooked.

Around 32 is the expiration date on players who rely on athleticism. Yes, Wade's already cooked, and they're still making it to the finals. Are you comparing Rondo to Wade?

No. Rondo's so much younger. Why would I?

Also, I don't think Rondo's game is predicated on athleticism. Intelligence, court vision, anticipation, dexterity, massive hands, long arms: those are things I think of when I think of Rondo.

I've no doubt that Rondo will still be relevant after his 32nd birthday.

[BballTim]

That said, we can argue numbers if you want to, for sure. I'm sure you'll use the +/- for the Wolves with Love on the floor and Love on the bench, and probably his eFG% and maybe his true shooting percentage, too.

 

Gotta love NBA teams built around a big man who can't defend and a PG who can't shoot. Red Auerbach would approve. 

Love has a nice outlet pass, though. I can already see it before my inner eye: Love receives the ball in the high post, passes it out to Rondo, who beats his man off the dribble, drives to the basket, only to kick it out to Love again, who's sitting in the corner for the three....or something like that...

Too bad the magic will only last 3-4 years, until Rondo is 32 and will beat noone driving to the basket anymore. Let's hope we can build this "contender" quickly enough to beat the Heat or Thunder, then.

  Thank goodness the "magic" is based on passing, court vision and the ability to run an offense and not on scoring then.

[winsomme]

Boston did not tank.  Tanking teams trade off all useful veterans for future considerations.  Philadelphia tanked.  Boston did not.  If Boston would have tanked Rondo, Bass, and Humphries, at a minimum, would not have been on the team at the end of the year.  Boston made a trade before the season started to pick up 3 first round picks for some aging veterans.  Trading Lee just made good financial sense given his contract size and length and for what he provides.  That is not tanking.

The criticism of Danny, Moranis, is that he tried to thread the needle and do both - get the high pick AND keep tradable assets. In the end, I think it backfired. We didn't get the top pick and we could easily lose Bayless and Humph (who helped us win games) to FA....

It's certainly possible that Danny has this all figured, but I think his job of getting Love would have been much easier with a top 4 pick.

  The criticism is based on assumptions of Danny's motives and objectives that you don't know are accurate. Also, Danny's been saying all along that there aren't any great players in the draft, for all you know Minny agrees with him and getting Love wouldn't be terrifically easier with the 4th pick. In 2006 people were all over Danny for not ending up with a better pick than Minny. There were plenty of posts claiming that he had the 7th pick in a 6 player draft so his pick was worth much less than any of the picks above him. Four of those picks were Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, Shelden Williams and Bargs. In retrospect, how sure do you think those people would be of those claims?

The criticism was based on predicted results that have so far come to fruition. Many believed that the team was heading toward a lottery disappointment, and that's what happened. Could Danny still make moves in spite of the disappointment? Or could the #6 pick have more value than many believe it to have? Sure, but for now it's frustrating for those who predicted this result.

As for looking retrospectively at the 2006 draft, that seems somewhat irrelevant. The question about the #6 is regarding the value of the pick, and that's not in any way illuminated by how Adam Morrison turned out as a player. Does how Greg Oden turned out mean that the #1 pick in 2007 wasn't incredibly valuable at draft time?

Also, you know who you can draft with the 4 pick in the draft? Anybody that might be drafted at 6. So, if Minny agrees with Danny and is not starstruck by the top 4 in the draft, the #4 pick at the very least could get them the player they might pick at 6 and also would give them the added value of any other team that might value those other players. Further, I'm not sure that Danny even agrees with Danny on this draft because he told Wyc that he LOVES 6 players in this draft...

[D.o.s.]

Like I said, that only helps my argument if you know about it. You just choose to ignore it apparently, which just makes you look silly.

No, I'm working right now, so I don't have time to go in and parse the details + post.

For anyone who has the time and inclination:

Love:
http://stats.nba.com/playerStats.html?PlayerID=201567&MeasureType=Advanced&PerMode=PerGame

Blake:
http://stats.nba.com/playerStats.html?PlayerID=201933&MeasureType=Advanced&PerMode=PerGame

LA:
http://stats.nba.com/playerStats.html?PlayerID=200746&MeasureType=Advanced&PerMode=PerGame



And their various starting lineups and how they compare:
http://stats.nba.com/leagueLineups.html?pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=25&columnOrder=&MeasureType=Advanced&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

I use basketball reference so I'll just use that.

Who's ignoring data now? 

Love
O-rating: 120
On-court: +5.6
On/Off: +11.0

Aldridge
O-rating: 108
On-court: +7.1
On/off: +8.8

Griffin
O-rating: 114
On-court: +9.4
On/off: +8.4

Dirk (career, not 13-14)
O-rating: 117
On-court: +7.6
Off-court: +11.1

The reason you're using Dirk's career numbers, we assume, is because he's posted significantly better single season numbers using your on-court/off-court/O-rating system from when he was Love's age? Thought so:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/n/nowitdi01.html

I'm going to assume that you're not looking at the NBA stat links I've provided, but they show that Blake and LaMarcus both have a higher net rating than Love (that's Offensive Rating - Defensive Rating), lower assist to turnover ratios, and higher offensive ratings. Blake and Love have roughly equivalent TS percentages, and Love has a higher turnover percentage than LA but a lower turnover percentage than Griffin.


But tell me again how there are plenty of stats that disagree with what I'm saying, please. I will give you this -- Love definitely throws the best outlet pass of the three, and he's certainly the best from deep.

[BballTim]

Boston did not tank.  Tanking teams trade off all useful veterans for future considerations.  Philadelphia tanked.  Boston did not.  If Boston would have tanked Rondo, Bass, and Humphries, at a minimum, would not have been on the team at the end of the year.  Boston made a trade before the season started to pick up 3 first round picks for some aging veterans.  Trading Lee just made good financial sense given his contract size and length and for what he provides.  That is not tanking.

The criticism of Danny, Moranis, is that he tried to thread the needle and do both - get the high pick AND keep tradable assets. In the end, I think it backfired. We didn't get the top pick and we could easily lose Bayless and Humph (who helped us win games) to FA....

It's certainly possible that Danny has this all figured, but I think his job of getting Love would have been much easier with a top 4 pick.

  The criticism is based on assumptions of Danny's motives and objectives that you don't know are accurate. Also, Danny's been saying all along that there aren't any great players in the draft, for all you know Minny agrees with him and getting Love wouldn't be terrifically easier with the 4th pick. In 2006 people were all over Danny for not ending up with a better pick than Minny. There were plenty of posts claiming that he had the 7th pick in a 6 player draft so his pick was worth much less than any of the picks above him. Four of those picks were Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, Shelden Williams and Bargs. In retrospect, how sure do you think those people would be of those claims?

The criticism was based on predicted results that have so far come to fruition. Many believed that the team was heading toward a lottery disappointment, and that's what happened. Could Danny still make moves in spite of the disappointment? Or could the #6 pick have more value than many believe it to have? Sure, but for now it's frustrating for those who predicted this result.

  You're criticizing Danny for trying to "thread the needle". Where's the evidence that he was trying to do that and it backfired? It's pure speculation. People are disappointed, but I think people spent the entire year overestimating how much the team was willing to do to drop a few spots in the draft.

[PhoSita]

Hate to break it to people, but Rondo, Humphries, and Bass didn't really move the needle much this year.  The "failure" to trade those guys didn't make a significant difference in the team's win total.

[gar]

Not wild about Bayless; but Ainge needs Bass for Asik or Love. Bass is the kind of role player a contending team craves. He and Humph did a good job of proving their value and may be important assets for a team hoping to resign either of them.

[BballTim]

Hate to break it to people, but Rondo, Humphries, and Bass didn't really move the needle much this year.  The "failure" to trade those guys didn't make a significant difference in the team's win total.

  Probably a couple of games each.

[PhoSita]

Hate to break it to people, but Rondo, Humphries, and Bass didn't really move the needle much this year.  The "failure" to trade those guys didn't make a significant difference in the team's win total.

  Probably a couple of games each.

Eh, I think the extent to which any of them played above replacement level may have made a difference of, at most, a couple of wins.  So at best we're talking about the difference between picking 5th and picking 6th.

The point is, it's ridiculous to roast Ainge for the fact that he didn't ensure that the team lost more.  If he had really gone all out, the team might have challenged Orlando.  It still wouldn't have given them a much greater chance of getting into the top 3, which is all that really matters.

[BballTim]

Hate to break it to people, but Rondo, Humphries, and Bass didn't really move the needle much this year.  The "failure" to trade those guys didn't make a significant difference in the team's win total.

  Probably a couple of games each.

Eh, I think the extent to which any of them played above replacement level may have made a difference of, at most, a couple of wins.  So at best we're talking about the difference between picking 5th and picking 6th.

  You're talking about statistical models, I was talking about actual games.

[PhoSita]

Hate to break it to people, but Rondo, Humphries, and Bass didn't really move the needle much this year.  The "failure" to trade those guys didn't make a significant difference in the team's win total.

  Probably a couple of games each.

Eh, I think the extent to which any of them played above replacement level may have made a difference of, at most, a couple of wins.  So at best we're talking about the difference between picking 5th and picking 6th.

  You're talking about statistical models, I was talking about actual games.

Poh-taeto pah-tahto.

I think the win total would have been approximately the same regardless of whether the Celtics traded Rondo, Bass, and Humphries before the deadline.

[winsomme]

Boston did not tank.  Tanking teams trade off all useful veterans for future considerations.  Philadelphia tanked.  Boston did not.  If Boston would have tanked Rondo, Bass, and Humphries, at a minimum, would not have been on the team at the end of the year.  Boston made a trade before the season started to pick up 3 first round picks for some aging veterans.  Trading Lee just made good financial sense given his contract size and length and for what he provides.  That is not tanking.

The criticism of Danny, Moranis, is that he tried to thread the needle and do both - get the high pick AND keep tradable assets. In the end, I think it backfired. We didn't get the top pick and we could easily lose Bayless and Humph (who helped us win games) to FA....

It's certainly possible that Danny has this all figured, but I think his job of getting Love would have been much easier with a top 4 pick.

  The criticism is based on assumptions of Danny's motives and objectives that you don't know are accurate. Also, Danny's been saying all along that there aren't any great players in the draft, for all you know Minny agrees with him and getting Love wouldn't be terrifically easier with the 4th pick. In 2006 people were all over Danny for not ending up with a better pick than Minny. There were plenty of posts claiming that he had the 7th pick in a 6 player draft so his pick was worth much less than any of the picks above him. Four of those picks were Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, Shelden Williams and Bargs. In retrospect, how sure do you think those people would be of those claims?

The criticism was based on predicted results that have so far come to fruition. Many believed that the team was heading toward a lottery disappointment, and that's what happened. Could Danny still make moves in spite of the disappointment? Or could the #6 pick have more value than many believe it to have? Sure, but for now it's frustrating for those who predicted this result.

  You're criticizing Danny for trying to "thread the needle". Where's the evidence that he was trying to do that and it backfired? It's pure speculation. People are disappointed, but I think people spent the entire year overestimating how much the team was willing to do to drop a few spots in the draft.

I'm criticizing the moves. The moves are the evidence, and the backfiring is the results thus far.

Early on in the season this was a borderline playoff team and ended up being a 25-win team with the fourth worst record in the league. If Danny was trying all along to be a playoff team, then I suppose the criticism could be different, but the motives (ie "thread the needle," be a playoff team this season, etc) are less important. The fact is this was a bad team, and Danny could have made further moves to make us a bit worse thus giving us a better chance at a top pick. Many thought he needed to make those moves (and called for them along the way) because not making them would leave us where we ended up - just outside the top 4 picks.

Even in your criticism, Bball, you are noting a "thread the needle" motive by saying people were overestimating how much the front office was willing to do to drop a few spots in the draft.