Kings put the #8 pick on the trading block

[Moranis]

That said, there are very few drafts from like 2003 on with more than 1 player worth drafting with as much value as a guy like Sullinger in the 8-14 range.

I'm not sure how highly to value Sullinger, honestly.  He's had some nice games, and he's been pretty productive so far in his young career.  He's also had health and weight issues, and he's still figuring it out on the defensive end.  He scored pretty well for stretches this year, but I'm not sure how much of that is the old principle -- "somebody has to score on a bad team."

Is Sullinger really so much better than Taj Gibson? Terrence Jones? Kenneth Faried? Markieff Morris? Jordan Hill?

Sometimes I think, yes, definitely.  I want to believe he can have a career like Carlos Boozer or David West.  Other times I'm not sure he isn't destined to be a productive bench big.

yeah but most of those guys were not realistic options at 8.  If you are looking at the value of a #8 pick you have to look at guys drafted at 8 or very near to that spot.  I chose 14 as a reasonable point because 8-14 are the back half of the lottery picks.  You can't reasonably draft a player that went 26 (like Taj Gibson) at 8 even if Taj Gibson is the 8th best player from his draft (I haven't looked so I have no idea if he was).   When you actually look at picks from 8-14 during the last 12 or so drafts, Sullinger would be at the very top end of that spectrum (you top 15ish of that 90 or so picks).  What you have to figure out this year is just how deep this draft is because there may be a future gem in that spot in this draft (you know an Amare type player).

[BballTim]

http://www.nba.com/2014/news/features/scott_howard_cooper/05/20/kings-put-pick-on-trade-block/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpts

The Kings put the No. 8 pick in the draft on the trade block immediately after the lottery Tuesday night, league sources told NBA.com, clearly looking to add at least one impact veteran in an attempt to push into the playoff conversation next season rather than wait for another rookie prospect to develop.

The Kings have several needs in the aftermath of the 28-54 finish, most notably an upgrade on defense, adding dependable perimeter shooting and finding a playmaker point guard, whether or not Isaiah Thomas returns as a restricted free agent. Those could be addressed at No. 8 in the draft, but with the possibility of the kind of test of patience they just went through with Ben McLemore, the seventh pick in 2013.

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A S&T'd AB would give them the perimeter D they need so badly and a decent 3 pt shooter.

AB for McLemore and #8, I'd do.

Lol. Of course you would.  That's grand larceny.

Why wouldn't the Kings just trade for Afflalo instead?

Any conversation involving the #8 pick starts and ends with Rondo.

  Rondo's a 4 time all-star in his 20s. If any conversation involving the #8 pick starts with a player like that, one would assume that any conversation involving the #6 pick starts out with players above that level. I guess we're looking good on the rebuild...

The 6 is the most valuable asset the Celtics have at the moment.  The next most valuable is Rondo.  The gulf between Rondo and the next most valuable asset is pretty large.  So the conversation starts and ends with Rondo for that reason.

Nobody is trading a top 10 pick -- in any draft, let alone this one -- for Avery Bradley.

  Go check out the #8 picks in the last 10 or so drafts, then come back and tell me you'd trade Sully for an average or so player out of that group in a heartbeat. I dare ya.

I can't see how this is responsive to anything that I said.

As for the "dare," I think it's a poorly formulated one.  In the last 10 drafts, there are plenty of very good players selected in the general vicinity of the 8th pick, players I'd definitely trade Sullinger for. 

When you look at drafts in retrospect, you have to look at the talent available in that part of the draft.  It's asinine to just look at the draft history at one specific slot, except for perhaps the #1 overall pick.

  It's not asinine, it's reasonably objective. Say you take the last 10 players picked at 8 and rank them 1-10. If you decide that Danny's a better than average drafter (which he is), factor that in by throwing out the bottom 3 or so picks. That leaves you with the top 7 #8 draft picks in the last 10 years, and assume that Danny would get a middle of the road pick out of what's left, so 4th best out of the 10, or to give him the benefit of the doubt, a player between the 3rd and 4th best out of 10 (which is obviously well above average. Like it or not, that's what you're likely to get for the #8 pick in a given draft.

  I would probably agree with you that there are some players "in the vicinity of #8" that you would trade Sully for. That would be especially pertinent if, when Danny's turn to draft came up, he could submit a card with 4-5 names on it and say he wants whichever player will turn out to be the best of the bunch. At some point in time reality has to enter the equation. Moranis suggested looking at a window of 8-14 and looking for players you'd trade Sully for. If you did that and found an average of 2 such players a year what you're really saying is that there's a 1 in 3 or so chance you'll win the trade.

[BballTim]

http://www.nba.com/2014/news/features/scott_howard_cooper/05/20/kings-put-pick-on-trade-block/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpts

The Kings put the No. 8 pick in the draft on the trade block immediately after the lottery Tuesday night, league sources told NBA.com, clearly looking to add at least one impact veteran in an attempt to push into the playoff conversation next season rather than wait for another rookie prospect to develop.

The Kings have several needs in the aftermath of the 28-54 finish, most notably an upgrade on defense, adding dependable perimeter shooting and finding a playmaker point guard, whether or not Isaiah Thomas returns as a restricted free agent. Those could be addressed at No. 8 in the draft, but with the possibility of the kind of test of patience they just went through with Ben McLemore, the seventh pick in 2013.

.

A S&T'd AB would give them the perimeter D they need so badly and a decent 3 pt shooter.

AB for McLemore and #8, I'd do.

Lol. Of course you would.  That's grand larceny.

Why wouldn't the Kings just trade for Afflalo instead?

Any conversation involving the #8 pick starts and ends with Rondo.

  Rondo's a 4 time all-star in his 20s. If any conversation involving the #8 pick starts with a player like that, one would assume that any conversation involving the #6 pick starts out with players above that level. I guess we're looking good on the rebuild...

You forgot to mention that he just had a major knee injury, hasn't yet regained his pre-injury form, and is going to be unrestricted free agent in a year with no good reason to re-sign.

  You forgot to mention that he hasn't suffered any physical setbacks or shown any signs that he won't fully recover. I would assume that nba GMs are somewhat familiar with injuries and how players recover from them, and don't subscribe to the inane "we won't have any idea whether he's going to fully recover until it's already happened" logic that peppers internet forums.

[Chief Macho]

I dunno,  if they can't get Love dealing Rondo for a top 10 pick in this draft and some other young players or another pick seems like it might be a option.    What else is Rondo going to get you really?   

[PhoSita]

yeah but most of those guys were not realistic options at 8.  If you are looking at the value of a #8 pick you have to look at guys drafted at 8 or very near to that spot.  I chose 14 as a reasonable point because 8-14 are the back half of the lottery picks.  You can't reasonably draft a player that went 26 (like Taj Gibson) at 8 even if Taj Gibson is the 8th best player from his draft (I haven't looked so I have no idea if he was).   When you actually look at picks from 8-14 during the last 12 or so drafts, Sullinger would be at the very top end of that spectrum (you top 15ish of that 90 or so picks).  What you have to figure out this year is just how deep this draft is because there may be a future gem in that spot in this draft (you know an Amare type player).

I was actually just mentioning those names as examples of players I look at as role players at the same position as Sullinger.  Here in Boston, we view him as a potential borderline star, with a floor as a very nice starting PF.  Elsewhere, I have a feeling people may look at Sully the way we might look at, say, Terrence Jones or Markieff Morris.


As for the #8 slot, I stand by my word "asinine" because I think it's foolhardy to look at the draft history of a specific slot and say that you can predict with much accuracy how likely that slot in a specific draft is going to turn out.

I think the right way to do it is to look at the talent typically available in that range.  If you do that, what you can say with confidence is that there's a solid chance that you can find a very, very good player at that range.  Not just a journeyman role player.  But, as with all other draft picks, it's no guarantee.  You could end up with a dud.  So the old saying "a bird in the hand..." comes into play when you're comparing a relatively known quantity (Sully) to the draft pick.

With all of that in mind, I doubt very many teams would surrender the #8 pick in most any draft, but especially a draft considered to have quite a bit of talent in the top 10, for a player (with health and weight concerns and average at best physical gifts) who may just be a role player capable of putting up decent numbers on a crappy team.

[Kane3387]

I dunno,  if they can't get Love dealing Rondo for a top 10 pick in this draft and some other young players or another pick seems like it might be a option.    What else is Rondo really going to get really?   

Agreed.

If ainge can't add a stud next to rondo then I could see him being moved. I've never felt ainge was in love with giving him a max deal like he's talked about on a rebuilding team.

[LarBrd33]

I dunno,  if they can't get Love dealing Rondo for a top 10 pick in this draft and some other young players or another pick seems like it might be a option.    What else is Rondo really going to get really?   

Agreed.

If ainge can't add a stud next to rondo then I could see him being moved. I've never felt ainge was in love with giving him a max deal like he's talked about on a rebuilding team.

It wouldn't be as exciting or immediate as the pipe-dream Kevin Love/Melo stuff... but trading Rondo for McLemore and the #8 would be something I could rally around.  It would leave us with a nice lil tanking team and plenty of youngins to watch grow over the next few years.

Probably would take a guard with one of those picks... Marcus Smart?  Prob take another big or something with #6.

Could end up with something like Marcus Smart, Ben McLemore, Aaron Gordon, Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger  and maybe Avery Bradley off the bench if we keep him.

The team certainly wouldn't be great, but neither was our team this year.  It would at least have some exciting moments and could grow into something down the line.  At least one of those guys would turn into a star... maybe 2 or 3 of them.  Re-evaluate in a couple years.

Anyways, if the rumors are to be believed, we went down this path earlier this year, but Rondo made it known he wouldn't re-sign in Sacramento... so it's pretty unlikely to happen unless Rondo is re-routed to one of his preferred teams like the Knicks.

[knuckleballer]

I dunno,  if they can't get Love dealing Rondo for a top 10 pick in this draft and some other young players or another pick seems like it might be a option.    What else is Rondo really going to get really?   

Agreed.

If ainge can't add a stud next to rondo then I could see him being moved. I've never felt ainge was in love with giving him a max deal like he's talked about on a rebuilding team.

It wouldn't be as exciting or immediate as the pipe-dream Kevin Love/Melo stuff... but trading Rondo for McLemore and the #8 would be something I could rally around.  It would leave us with a nice lil tanking team and plenty of youngins to watch grow over the next few years.

Probably would take a guard with one of those picks... Marcus Smart?  Prob take another big or something with #6.

Could end up with something like Marcus Smart, Ben McLemore, Aaron Gordon, Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger  and maybe Avery Bradley off the bench if we keep him.

The team certainly wouldn't be great, but neither was our team this year.  It would at least have some exciting moments and could grow into something down the line.  At least one of those guys would turn into a star... maybe 2 or 3 of them.  Re-evaluate in a couple years.

Anyways, if the rumors are to be believed, we went down this path earlier this year, but Rondo made it known he wouldn't re-sign in Sacramento... so it's pretty unlikely to happen unless Rondo is re-routed to one of his preferred teams like the Knicks.

Tanking (building year might be a better way to put it) another season would be so painful, but it might be worth it in the long run.  There are several good centers likely to be in next year's draft. 

We're going Down for Towns.  We're going to lose For Okafor.

[Quetzalcoatl]

It's not just tanking for the draft next year that makes sense to me (that draft will be better than this one).  It's that:

Hump will be cleared as of this summer
Rondo will be due for a contract extension which he won't sign until then no matter what, so we'll get a look at his health and have that sorted out
Wallace and Green will be two giant expiring contracts for trade bait
Bass, Joel Anthony and Bradley* will be ending their contracts at the end of next year
Babb and Johnson can be waived

So we will still have 2 Nets picks, the rights to swap with the Nets in 2017, 3 of our picks, probably 2 Philly second rounders, our Clips 2015 pick, our 2015 1st rounder, our 2015 second rounder, an improved Sullinger, an improved Olynyk, our top 6 pick after their rookie year and our top 17 pick after our rookie year and Rondo.  We will basically have max cap flexibility and still have 5 first rounders in the next 3 years to deal.  The cap is going to be like $10 million higher for 2015/2016 than it just was for 2013/2014. 

So we can have a super young team with lots of cap flexibility and assets to swing for a trade.  We'll also know if the Nets will likely be in the lottery in 2016 by then, too.

[Rondo9]

I dunno,  if they can't get Love dealing Rondo for a top 10 pick in this draft and some other young players or another pick seems like it might be a option.    What else is Rondo really going to get really?   

Agreed.

If ainge can't add a stud next to rondo then I could see him being moved. I've never felt ainge was in love with giving him a max deal like he's talked about on a rebuilding team.

It wouldn't be as exciting or immediate as the pipe-dream Kevin Love/Melo stuff... but trading Rondo for McLemore and the #8 would be something I could rally around.  It would leave us with a nice lil tanking team and plenty of youngins to watch grow over the next few years.

Probably would take a guard with one of those picks... Marcus Smart?  Prob take another big or something with #6.

Could end up with something like Marcus Smart, Ben McLemore, Aaron Gordon, Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger  and maybe Avery Bradley off the bench if we keep him.

The team certainly wouldn't be great, but neither was our team this year.  It would at least have some exciting moments and could grow into something down the line.  At least one of those guys would turn into a star... maybe 2 or 3 of them.  Re-evaluate in a couple years.

Anyways, if the rumors are to be believed, we went down this path earlier this year, but Rondo made it known he wouldn't re-sign in Sacramento... so it's pretty unlikely to happen unless Rondo is re-routed to one of his preferred teams like the Knicks.

Tanking (building year might be a better way to put it) another season would be so painful, but it might be worth it in the long run.  There are several good centers likely to be in next year's draft. 

We're going Down for Towns.  We're going to lose For Okafor.

And you'll end up picking 6th!

[knuckleballer]

I dunno,  if they can't get Love dealing Rondo for a top 10 pick in this draft and some other young players or another pick seems like it might be a option.    What else is Rondo really going to get really?   

Agreed.

If ainge can't add a stud next to rondo then I could see him being moved. I've never felt ainge was in love with giving him a max deal like he's talked about on a rebuilding team.

It wouldn't be as exciting or immediate as the pipe-dream Kevin Love/Melo stuff... but trading Rondo for McLemore and the #8 would be something I could rally around.  It would leave us with a nice lil tanking team and plenty of youngins to watch grow over the next few years.

Probably would take a guard with one of those picks... Marcus Smart?  Prob take another big or something with #6.

Could end up with something like Marcus Smart, Ben McLemore, Aaron Gordon, Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger  and maybe Avery Bradley off the bench if we keep him.

The team certainly wouldn't be great, but neither was our team this year.  It would at least have some exciting moments and could grow into something down the line.  At least one of those guys would turn into a star... maybe 2 or 3 of them.  Re-evaluate in a couple years.

Anyways, if the rumors are to be believed, we went down this path earlier this year, but Rondo made it known he wouldn't re-sign in Sacramento... so it's pretty unlikely to happen unless Rondo is re-routed to one of his preferred teams like the Knicks.

Tanking (building year might be a better way to put it) another season would be so painful, but it might be worth it in the long run.  There are several good centers likely to be in next year's draft. 

We're going Down for Towns.  We're going to lose For Okafor.

And you'll end up picking 6th!

Probably    next year is supposed to be another strong draft.  In addition to Okafor and Towns, there's also Myles Turner and WCS just at the center position. 

I don't think we should think of it as tanking, but as a bridge year.  If you trade Rondo and pick up a couple of young guys such as McLemore and the 8th pick as well as the 6th and 17th picks, you'll have a lot of young guys to develop.  Then after the season, you'll have likely another lottery pick, the Clippers pick, the Philly pick or picks, and the future Brooklyn picks.  You'll also have a lot of payroll flexibility and even more the next season when Wallace and Green's deals expire.  You decide which players you want to build around and use all your assets to upgrade the team through trades and maybe free agency.  It's frustrating to go through a few rebuilding years, but the dividends could really pay off if Danny makes good decisions. 

I do hope we get Love or Melo, but taking the patient approach does have its merits... thanks to Danny's wheeling and dealing.  Let's not forget how terrible the 90s through 2006 were.

[biggs]

Let's go young!

Rondo for Isaiah (S+T)-maclemore and pick #8

Draft Smart/Exum (#6), Vonleh (#8) and Cleanthony Early (#17)

Roll the dice and hope for free agents to come 

Way too young (I know) but fun to ponder

[Al91]

I'd lean towards trading the pick over drafting a player if I was Sacramento too. The team is hardly in need of youth and much more in need of some veteran guidance, something Jason Terry wasn't too keen on when he was traded there this year. Might was well trade the pick and one of the poorer contracts for a "glue guy" or at east vets. You know the trade with Ariza and Okafor seemed like a HUGE salary dump for Washington at the time years ago but looks what taking on some unfavorable contracts did for them within 3 years? Yes, Okafor's gone (I believe in the package for Gortat) but at least they're reaping the benefits of Ariza when needed most.

Sac could use a veteran, or two, with some dicey contracts if you ask me. Now, I know dicey contracts aren't exactly what you want in exchange for a #8 pick but things can't get much more mediocre in Sac can they?