Some people think KO is better than Sully. Some people think Sully's ceiling is limited. If those people are right, this trade would be a win. Parsons is better than Green. Asik is probably more impactful than Sully. You'd have Parsons at SF, KO at PF and Asik at C... Although our draft pick will likely be a PF too, so that would complicate things. But maybe we draft someone who can play SG and have a nice little starting lineup.
Of course, you'll have exchanged control of Sully & Green for the next two years (at a grand total of 10.8M & 12M for one year of control of Asik & Parsons at a cap hit of 9.2M plus another 7M out-of-cap balloon payment due Asik and both of them hitting UFA next summer.
Parsons will cost a heck of a lot more than 981K to resign at that point. Probably in the ball-park of 6-8M. Asik will cost somewhere in the neighborhood of 10M, maybe more. Basically, after this year, you are looking at 16-20M to retain the two of them.
I like Asik and Parsons, and if it was just players you were exchanging -- sure. Why not?
But you are also trading contracts and future contracts. Now, if you don't WANT to retain them beyond this coming year (max cap space for 2015 FAs) then sure -- but in that case, why bother getting 'useful' players in the first place? Why not give up Sully & Green for junk players and just tank again? Go for one of the big name centers coming out in the 2015 draft?
There is a great deal of flexibility in having a bunch of free agents with contracts expiring in the same year when you have their Bird Rights and their contracts are such that they have favorable cap holds that may allow you to sign a free agent from another team before re-signing your own free agents. My proposed trade is very much intended to be in line with Ainge's rumored intention of making a big splash in 2015.
Tanking is idiotic unless your roster is so horrible that you have no other options except to rebuild through the draft, so I would not dump Green and Sullinger for junk.
Per FAQ question #38:
Asik's cap hold will be 12.5M (150% of prior salary).
Parson's will be 2.45M (250%, 4th year, post-rookie deal, below-avg contract).
That's 15M of cap space held versus the 11.8M that Green & Sully would hold.
So you don't free up any cap space next summer with this move unless you renounce at least Asik.
I'm not totally opposed to bringing on Asik and/or Parsons and I'm not totally opposed to trading Green and/or Sully. But I'd want quite a bit of draft pick incentive to do this particular deal.
I'm not saying that the cap holds of Asik/Parsons are smaller than the actual contracts of Green/Sullinger, I'm saying that if you acquire them, their cap holds are small enough to still give Ainge room to maneuver, compared to acquiring equivalent talent. This would not be the case if Asik was being paid the $10-12m that he is probably worth.
Being able to renounce Asik if the right free agent comes along or have a good shot at retaining him due to possessing his Bird rights is part of the flexibility that I think is desirable.
As it stands right now, these are our commitments for 2015-16:
Wallace: 10.1M (Final year)
Green: 9.2M (Final year, player option)
Rookie#1: ~4.0M
Rookie#2: ~2.5M
SubTotal: 25.8M
We also have TEAM options on:
Olynyk: 2.1M
Sully: 2.3M
SubTotal: 30.2M
And then we have UNGUARANTEED contracts:
Bogans: 5.5M
Fav: 2.2M
Pressey .95M
Johnson: .98M
Babb: .95M
Subtotal: 40.9M
Entering the summer, we will likely also have a CAP HOLD:
Rondo: 19.5M
And it is possible we will have resigned Bradley (this seems less and less likely, though)
Bradley: 6M
Worst case, we exercise all options and honor all unguaranteed contracts and re-sign Bradley, bringing the total to:
Worst Case Cap #: 66.4M.
Now, that's worse case.
If Danny wanted max room, he can easily shed all the non-guaranteed contracts (10.5M) and obviously not have resigned Bradley (perhaps one of the rookies is an SG?) getting you quickly all the way down to 50M while still holding Rondo's max cap hold. If you sign Rondo to, say, 15M, then you are down to about 46M. At that point, you have about 17M of cap room, based on current projections.
Having the 'option' to renounce Asik (i.e., replacing Sully & Green with Asik & Parsons) would have your cap number sitting at about 49M, with the potential to drop it to 37M. So, you'd have potentially 26M of cap space.
Of course, you'd have more players to have to sign, including replacing that defensive center you just let go. If you don't let him go, you are still up at 49M. With 14M of cap space.
Alternatively, all that is moot.
The beauty of Danny's contract portfolio is that he can stay ABOVE the salary cap the whole time. Instead of dropping players and trying to squeeze a free agent in under the cap, he can instead _trade_ players and stay OVER the cap. That will allow him to take an expensive free agent via a S&T and STILL BE ABLE TO AFFORD RONDO -- because he can always sign Rondo with Bird rights.
Basically instead of trying to squeeze a championship contending roster in under the 62-63M cap, he'll more likely want to be able to spend up close to the luxury tax threshold, near 74-75M.
I will not be surprised if Danny never drops below the salary cap.
Topic: Yet Another HOU/BOS idea - Sullinger/Green for Parsons/Asik (Read 4750 times)