Letting Bradley hit FA is probably DA's best move

[LarBrd33]

How much do you think GMs will give a 23-year-old shooting guard with NBA All-Defensive ability whose ceiling could be 40% on threes with 16-18 points per game?  (If you don't think his ceiling is at least that high, I don't think you are a good judge of talent.)

I don't think that's his ceiling.  He was starting shooting guard on a bottom 4 team and averaged a mere 14 points on 43%/36%/76% shooting.  It's not terrible, but it's not great.  I see his future as "role player" averaging 8-12 points in a starting role... or 6-8 points in a backup role.

He's turning 24... it's his 4th season already.  I'd be surprised to see much improvement beyond this.

[wdleehi]

I just keeping looking at the trade deadline.  The majority of the moves were to dump good players to get under and away from the tax level.



A guy like AB is going to be the guy who sees his potential earning on a contract squeezed.   


I think we will see team stop spending the full MLE on nice/good players.  The cap is set up to pay big money for stars, and leftovers for everyone else. 


The exceptions are going to be good big men, resigning a player on a contender and the dreamer team that may be one small move away from contending. 

[Nerf DPOY]

He's turning 24...

Why do you keep doing this? He'll be 24 at the end of next November. It's less of a stretch to say he just turned 23, but still a stretch.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

Not intending to split hairs, but how do we know Bradley didn't turn down that earlier offer for reasons other than it was 7 million a year?

[wdleehi]

Not intending to split hairs, but how do we know Bradley didn't turn down that earlier offer for reasons other than it was 7 million a year?

I don't really believe there was a 7 million offer.  I get the feeling this is something leaked by the agent to try and up his clients future offers.

[LarBrd33]

He's turning 24...

Why do you keep doing this? He'll be 24 at the end of next November. It's less of a stretch to say he just turned 23, but still a stretch.

Because generally players stop showing major statistical improvement at age 23.  They improve, but usually they statistically are who they are by the time they are 23.   It's his 4th season.  He's 23.  I wouldn't gamble on seeing wild improvement beyond this. If he were a 23 year old rookie, I'd say give him a couple more season.

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

[colincb]

He's turning 24...

Why do you keep doing this? He'll be 24 at the end of next November. It's less of a stretch to say he just turned 23, but still a stretch.

Because generally players stop showing major statistical improvement at age 23.  They improve, but usually they statistically are who they are by the time they are 23.   It's his 4th season.  He's 23.  I wouldn't gamble on seeing wild improvement beyond this. If he were a 23 year old rookie, I'd say give him a couple more season.

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

It says 25 in the linked page, not 23. How odd.

[LarBrd33]

He's turning 24...

Why do you keep doing this? He'll be 24 at the end of next November. It's less of a stretch to say he just turned 23, but still a stretch.

Because generally players stop showing major statistical improvement at age 23.  They improve, but usually they statistically are who they are by the time they are 23.   It's his 4th season.  He's 23.  I wouldn't gamble on seeing wild improvement beyond this. If he were a 23 year old rookie, I'd say give him a couple more season.

http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

It says 25 in the linked page, not 23. How odd.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748703478704574612553424283372?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052748703478704574612553424283372.html

NBA players peak at 24 years old and basically stay at that level until they turn 25, at which point they start declining, according to a study by Dave Berri, a professor of economics at Southern Utah University.

I just don't see much potential in Bradley.  He'll be a backup somewhere eventually.

He's too small to be a starting SG.  If he wants to take small money to backup Rondo and Wiggins, I'm all for it.

[Fafnir]

Dave Berri judges all things basketball by his own metric, which is pretty controversial though it has a strong following online.

[Fafnir]

So Bradley is a restricted free agent. They are going to sign him to his qualifying offer then match if someone else offers him an acceptable contract. I think he probably plays out the year on a qualifying offer.

This wouldn't surprise me, there's very little market for mid-range contract guys these days.  And Bradley's injuries and our general suckiness are keeping him out of the league's attention. 

Somebody might offer him their MLE but I can't see him commanding much more than that.

Yeah a contract the size of Tony Allen's initial deal with Memphis is probably the best he can hope for.

I still think the 6 million for 3 years extension talk was his agent trying to set a price out there.

[incoherent]

Bradley was clearly playing for a contract this season, overshooting, underpassing, not playing team ball.  He also was not extending himself defensively because he wanted to save himself on offense since offense is his best chance at getting paid.

Bradley almost got himself out of the role player/bench player category but not quite, and landed in injury prone category.

When AB comes back and has about 10 games or so to play, he needs to revert back to his old ways. I want to see him go fullcourt on other teams PG.  I want to see him cutting to the hoop without the ball.  No more jacking up mid range shots trying to pad stats. 

If we could retain AB next season for 5-6 mil that would be extremely good in my opinion.  But I do fear some team will throw 6-7 at him and it's hard to say if Ainge would match, hard to let such a good character guy and hard nosed player get away.

[LooseCannon]

Find me an example of a micro-sized shooting guard like that who has excelled.  Jason Terry, I guess.  He was usually a back-up.  Every once in a while he started on a team by default.

Jason Terry has started 650 out of 1136 career games.  Even when he was coming off the bench in Dallas, he was still averaging over 30 minutes per game.

[Rondohara]

Not worth more than 5 mil, I'll offer/cover for 4.5.
I don't want to keep him, but if he's very cheap we can, else let him walk.

[LooseCannon]

I just don't see much potential in Bradley.  He'll be a backup somewhere eventually.

He's too small to be a starting SG.  If he wants to take small money to backup Rondo and Wiggins, I'm all for it.

Bradley is too one-positional to be a backup guard.  He can't play PG, so he can't be a combo guard off the bench and he is too small to get minutes at SF.  He's too good to be getting 10-15 mpg as a backup SG.

I think his ideal role is starting SG, but occasionally sitting in crunch time in favor of a bigger scoring wing. so that he plays about 30 mpg.