Lottery History

[EvilEmpire]

The history of the lottery

    The worst team has won the NBA Draft Lottery three times in 23 tries.
    The third-worst and fifth-worst teams have won the lottery the most times (five) in the lottery era. The Cavaliers select third and the Pelicans pick fifth this year.
    The team with the least likely odds to win the NBA Draft Lottery was the 1993 Orlando Magic, who had the 11th-best chance to win. The seventh-, eighth- and ninth-worst teams have all won the lottery once since 1990.

Team by record    # of wins (since 1990)
Worst            3
2nd-worst    4
3rd-worst    5
4th-worst    0
5th-worst    5
6th-worst    2
7th-worst    1
8th-worst    1
9th-worst    1
10th-worst    0
11th-worst    1
12th-worst    0
13th-worst    0
14th-worst    0

So the goal is the tank but not go full tank.

[D.o.s.]

Say it with me now...







Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

[Donoghus]

Shouldn't you really start with 1994, though?

Isn't that when the modified weighted system went into effect?

I agree that past performance doesn't guarantee anything but its still an interesting thing to take a look at.

[EvilEmpire]

Wikipedia stated the the weighted lottery system was started in 1990.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery

[Donoghus]

Wikipedia stated the the weighted lottery system was started in 1990.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery

The NBA modified it after Orlando got the 1st overall pick despite having the worst odds. That was the Webber/Penny draft the year after drafting Shaq.

[EvilEmpire]

NBA lottery was not modified in 1993 to take effect for the 1994 draft that changed the percentages. In 1995 the draft was changed again from 11 to 13 teams.

http://www.nba.com/history/draft_evolution.html

[fairweatherfan]

NBA lottery was not modified in 1993 to take effect for the 1994 draft that changed the percentages. In 1995 the draft was changed again from 11 to 13 teams.

http://www.nba.com/history/draft_evolution.html

I don't know if this is a typo, but from your link:

The Board of Governors approved a modification of the Lottery system in November of 1993 that, effective with the 1994 NBA Draft Lottery, increased the chances of the teams with the worst records in the league winning one of the top three picks in the draft while decreasing the lottery chances of the teams with the best records.

Dons is right about the reweighting.

[fairweatherfan]

And more importantly, past lottery results are meaningless for predicting future ones.  Flipping a coin 3 times and getting all heads doesn't change the odds of the next toss.

EDIT:  Covered already. Well, serves me right for just skimming the thread.

[lightspeed5]

random = random

[BballTim]

The history of the lottery

    The worst team has won the NBA Draft Lottery three times in 23 tries.
    The third-worst and fifth-worst teams have won the lottery the most times (five) in the lottery era. The Cavaliers select third and the Pelicans pick fifth this year.
    The team with the least likely odds to win the NBA Draft Lottery was the 1993 Orlando Magic, who had the 11th-best chance to win. The seventh-, eighth- and ninth-worst teams have all won the lottery once since 1990.

Team by record    # of wins (since 1990)
Worst            3
2nd-worst    4
3rd-worst    5
4th-worst    0
5th-worst    5
6th-worst    2
7th-worst    1
8th-worst    1
9th-worst    1
10th-worst    0
11th-worst    1
12th-worst    0
13th-worst    0
14th-worst    0

So the goal is the tank but not go full tank.

   So based on this, would you rather be 5th (which wins the lottery a lot) or 4th (which is overdue for a win)?

  BTW, I know how odds work. Just curious about whether people would forego the odds for the frequent winner.

[D.o.s.]

Based on the super handy chart from Jeff's article the other day:
http://www.celticsblog.com/2014/1/27/5352442/what-are-the-odds-of-the-celtics-winning-the-nba-draft-lottery

4th has these odds (1-7):
.119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012

While 5th has these: (1-8, no chance at picking 4th)
.088 .097 .107 .000 .261 .360 .084.004    

So I'd rather have the 4th pick.

[slamtheking]

Based on the super handy chart from Jeff's article the other day:
http://www.celticsblog.com/2014/1/27/5352442/what-are-the-odds-of-the-celtics-winning-the-nba-draft-lottery

4th has these odds (1-7):
.119 .126 .133 .099 .351 .160 .012

While 5th has these: (1-8, no chance at picking 4th)
.088 .097 .107 .000 .261 .360 .084.004    

So I'd rather have the 4th pick.

what's interesting is that the best odds for the 4th pick is to end up with the 5th slot where as the 5th pick has pretty significant odds at 5th and 6th. 

The only concern I have going into the draft with the C's in the 1-4 slots is that someone leapfrogs them (or worse, more than 1 team leapfrogs them) into the top 3 - ala the Oden/Durant Draft.

Ultimate nightmare scenario is that C's end up in the 3rd slot and 3 teams leapfrog them into the top 3 -- Lakers, Sixers and Cleveland (they've had enough top picks) pushing the C's back to #6.  feeling queasy just thinking about it 

[wdleehi]

I want the slot with the best chance of a top 4 pick. 

[Jeff]

Say it with me now...







Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

this

if you flip heads 50 times in a row, the chances of the next one being heads is still 50% (assuming the coin has a tails side)