A vaguely logical argument for not tanking

[oldtype]

Pretty much everyone accepts that absent extraordinary circumstances, you need a franchise player to win a title in the NBA. The way I see it, there are three ways to acquire this player.

A. The "disgruntled star" method
Stockpile assets and wait for the next available franchise player that becomes available on the trade market.
Ex) KG, Ray Allen

B. The "one guy away" method
Become an attractive team with one superstar already in place and a core of good young players while still maintaining exactly a max-level contract's worth of cap flexibility. Sign a superstar who wants to win a title in free agency and wants a team with a supporting cast already in place.
Ex) Dwight Howard to Houston

C. The "win the lottery" method
Draft a superstar. There are some exceptional cases where a team strikes lucky on a pick they traded for (hopefully us with the Nets pick) or a superstar is drafted way later than he should be (Rondo or Paul George), for the vast majority of teams, this will require tanking hard for a top 3 pick.


Now method A is obvious. Anyone doing any semblance of a competent rebuilding job should be focused on constantly increasing the value of assets in hand in case a superstar becomes available.

But for the most part, methods B and C are mutually exclusive. One requires you to make a deliberate effort to get better, the other requires a deliberate effort to be worse. Therefore, rebuilding teams need to make a choice: they either go for AB, or they go for AC.

Obviously, nobody likes losing games and seeing their teams get worse, so B is more attractive than C. Why do so many teams choose C then? Because not everyone has the talent available to become a "one player away" team, and if everyone is trying to be better and win games, obviously it's trivially easy to be worse and lose more. Teams choose tanking because it's easier.

During the pre-season, everyone thought we were a team that was going for route C. The players we had weren't anywhere near good enough to build us into a 'one guy away' team, and a lottery pick in a loaded draft looked like the best option available.

But two things have changed: one, we're a lot better than we thought. Two, its' no longer true that being worse is easier than being better. So many teams are actively trying to tank (or are just really bad at basketball) that it's got to the point that trying to be competitive might actually be the 'quick fix.'

I think players like Sullinger, Green, Bass, Crawford, Lee, and Bradley have proved that they could be very strong complementary players. We already have one superstar in Rondo. If we can net Asik without giving up too much, we pretty much have an entire supporting cast already in place, waiting for that one final piece, especially if these players prove themselves with a decent playoff run. The way I see it, us with Asik would be just as attractive a proposition as pre-Dwight Houston. All we need is to wait for some contracts to expire.

At this point, getting better may actually be the easiest way out, not getting worse. We're not realistically going to be able to out-tank teams that are hellbent on the lottery no matter how many good role-players we trade away for nothing. The strategy that gives us the best chance of netting a superstar is getting as good as we can while waiting for contracts to expire to leave a hole in our salary cap that one max-level player can fill.

Winning just feels better. If winning is now easier than losing, why not try to win?

[Jailan34]

Well written post, but I have to completely disagree that Rondo is a superstar. Superstars can be the number one option on a championship team. Kobe, Lebron, Duncan, Wade, Dirk, Pierce in 08. Guys who carry the offensive load.

Rondo is a tremendous 3rd option, Okay second option, terrible first. In all honesty Rondo's best role is as 4th option on offense dishing it out to great scorers/bigs. So while I don't disagree that you can build a team around Rondo, the players you surround him with just have to be great players.

[vjcsmoke]

We're not tanking.  Haven't you been paying attention to what Ainge and Stevens have been saying?

In fact we'll likely end up out of the lottery even if in normal years we would be just because the Atlantic and apparently the Eastern Conference is just so terri-bad this year.

Not much you can do except hope to engineer a few trades either at the deadline or on draft day that will allow us to move up in the draft or at least get players with potential to grow.

There are no Untouchables on our roster right now if the Right Deal comes along.

[Celtics4ever]

number one option on a championship team. Kobe,

What has he ever won without a big?   I give you a clue multiply zero x zero and you get nothing.

[BballTim]

Well written post, but I have to completely disagree that Rondo is a superstar. Superstars can be the number one option on a championship team. Kobe, Lebron, Duncan, Wade, Dirk, Pierce in 08. Guys who carry the offensive load.

  In the 2012 playoffs Rondo scored or assisted a higher percentage of his team's points that anyone else in the league. It's not all scoring but it's certainly carrying the offensive load.

[oldtype]

Well written post, but I have to completely disagree that Rondo is a superstar. Superstars can be the number one option on a championship team. Kobe, Lebron, Duncan, Wade, Dirk, Pierce in 08. Guys who carry the offensive load.

Rondo is a tremendous 3rd option, Okay second option, terrible first. In all honesty Rondo's best role is as 4th option on offense dishing it out to great scorers/bigs. So while I don't disagree that you can build a team around Rondo, the players you surround him with just have to be great players.

I don't think we disagree really. I think Rondo's a very good second option. What we have to do now is put us in a situation where we can get a first!

[Jeff]

enjoyed the original post - well done sir (or madam)

[tstorey_97]

Thanks for the post. I do not agree that the "opinion" at the beginning of the season was that the Celtics were tanking. I agree that the Nets trade made it look like a tank, but, Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries are your 6th and 7th men with Rondo returning?

The roster is far too deep. The roster has way too much veteran talent. A tanking team perhaps features an assortment of young/high draft picks trying to find their way. This does not describe the Celtics.

Thus we arrive at today. Ainge has himself in good position to:
"Make the team better now and shoot for the playoffs." Low
"Trade his best players lose games and get the high pick." Low
"Hold his assets for the highest price and hope the team wins fewer games." High

Ainge needs a "transcendent player." The only method? Wait.
Why? Half measures do not win titles. This year Bosh, Wade and James "might" hit the market. Ainge may not be able to get any of them, but, this year's free agent market will assuredly create opportunity for Ainge and his assets.

[Jailan34]

Well written post, but I have to completely disagree that Rondo is a superstar. Superstars can be the number one option on a championship team. Kobe, Lebron, Duncan, Wade, Dirk, Pierce in 08. Guys who carry the offensive load.

  In the 2012 playoffs Rondo scored or assisted a higher percentage of his team's points that anyone else in the league. It's not all scoring but it's certainly carrying the offensive load.

That's a good point, but at the same time Rondo needs great scorers or big men to pass to like I said. Building a team around Rondo isn't impossible, but its harder than building a team around say Derrick Rose or Damian Lillard. It's always easier to build around a scorer rather than a passer.

Which in my mind is why Rondo is suited perfectly for what hes done his whole career, being the 3rd-4th option and run one of the most efficient offenses in the league as long as he has the players around him.

[D.o.s.]

we don't actually know what Rondo needs around him, since he's been a part of a relatively stable starting five for the majority of his career. There's really nothing to be gleaned about which kinds of teammates benefit him the most, based on what we've got to work with.

[Jailan34]

number one option on a championship team. Kobe,

What has he ever won without a big?   I give you a clue multiply zero x zero and you get nothing.

No one gets it done alone, but to say Kobe can't be the number one option on a championship team to me is kind of silly. I know this is a celtics site, but Kobe is a great player and won multiple titles, yes he's had great teammates just as Bird, Magic, and MJ all did.

I didn't say kobe did it all on his own, he certaintly didn't and his first three titles kobe was second fiddle, but he won two where he was the number one option.

[Edgar]

Thanks for the post. I do not agree that the "opinion" at the beginning of the season was that the Celtics were tanking. I agree that the Nets trade made it look like a tank, but, Gerald Wallace and Kris Humphries are your 6th and 7th men with Rondo returning?

The roster is far too deep. The roster has way too much veteran talent. A tanking team perhaps features an assortment of young/high draft picks trying to find their way. This does not describe the Celtics.

Thus we arrive at today. Ainge has himself in good position to:
"Make the team better now and shoot for the playoffs." Low
"Trade his best players lose games and get the high pick." Low
"Hold his assets for the highest price and hope the team wins fewer games." High

Ainge needs a "transcendent player." The only method? Wait.
Why? Half measures do not win titles. This year Bosh, Wade and James "might" hit the market. Ainge may not be able to get any of them, but, this year's free agent market will assuredly create opportunity for Ainge and his assets.

i pretty much feel like this today... check... today.. tough games coming

[vjcsmoke]

It would be like saying Bird didn't win any titles without McHale and Parish.  Of course he needed a supporting cast but that doesn't take away from him being a great player and a champion.

Don't like Kobe's arrogance.  But he's the real deal.  I think his time is over but when he was in his prime, he was a bona fide franchise player.

number one option on a championship team. Kobe,

What has he ever won without a big?   I give you a clue multiply zero x zero and you get nothing.

No one gets it done alone, but to say Kobe can't be the number one option on a championship team to me is kind of silly. I know this is a celtics site, but Kobe is a great player and won multiple titles, yes he's had great teammates just as Bird, Magic, and MJ all did.

I didn't say kobe did it all on his own, he certaintly didn't and his first three titles kobe was second fiddle, but he won two where he was the number one option.