Indiana Pacers are screwed

[Fafnir]

Paul George and Hibbert are pretty young, they can retool around them after West and the rest of their cast goes.

But no matter what they're going to go as far as Paul George can take them. His growth will determine their ceiling. He needs to become a true offensive difference maker, right now he's closer to average as far as lead scorers go. To inconsistent and overall inefficient, doesn't create enough for his team too.

[bdm860]

Here's a question/thought I have on Indiana, a team who I think can realistically win it all next year, definitely a contender, with or without Granger.

I see them bringing him off the bench.  So best case scenario here for them is Granger becomes a super sub (JR Smith, James Harden, Lamar Odom style), still putting up good numbers, getting around 30mpg, and the team is winning.

So say Indiana is on pace to win around 60 games, has beaten all the best teams, and everything is clicking with Granger back.  Granger looks great, you know he's going to get $12m+ in the off season (or some amount Indiana won't be able to handle).

Do you roll the dice on a 2013 championship knowing you'll lose Granger for nothing and still be over the cap?

Or do you trade him just so you get something back?  With the thought being you're still a contender without him (but knowing it hurts your chances)?

I'm interested to see how this turns out for Indiana and what they do here.

[Fafnir]

They'd keep Granger if they are on pace to be a favorite in the East.

Especially as the offers for him would be low. Expiring guys don't fetch a ton even if they are good players.  Too much risk they walk.

[indeedproceed]

Paul George and Hibbert are pretty young, they can retool around them after West and the rest of their cast goes.

But no matter what they're going to go as far as Paul George can take them. His growth will determine their ceiling. He needs to become a true offensive difference maker, right now he's closer to average as far as lead scorers go. To inconsistent and overall inefficient, doesn't create enough for his team too.

Below average even.

[chambers]

They've got George and Hibbert locked up for the long term.

That is enough to ensure they'll be winning 50 games a year as long as those guys stay healthy and the supporting cast isn't made out of paper clips and chewing gum.

They have until George and Hibbert hit their early to mid 30s to keep making playoff runs and hope that at some point they get the right mixture of luck and roster chemistry to give them a chance at a ring.

Honestly, they're probably in the best position a small market team like that could ever hope to be in.

They're much better off than the Grizzlies, for example.

I agree with everything you say down to the spelling.....except your point about the Grizzlies.
I think they're fine. If Zeebo is healthy he's their David West.
They'll have Conley and Gasol for 2 more seasons and if they re- sign Gasol they'll be shedding Zeebo whilst keeping Conley, Gasol and hoping that Ed Davis and their draft picks start paying off.
Main difference between the two is that the Pacers are willing to spend and gamble at the same time. Grizzlies had a contender with Gay, Zeebo, Conley and Gasol and they gave that status up to save money.
Pacers won't do that and it's unfortunate for Grizz fans.
They never actually had a post season with Zeebo, Gay and Gasol all healthy. Not once- and they even made the ECF without Gay.
Imagine if they had him on offense instead of TayShaun and Tony Allen shooting those horrid kickout jumpshots from Gasol and Conley.

[chambers]

double post whoops

[bdm860]

They'd keep Granger if they are on pace to be a favorite in the East.

Especially as the offers for him would be low. Expiring guys don't fetch a ton even if they are good players.  Too much risk they walk.

See I don't know if I agree.
 
I look at a team like the Thunder.  They hurt their chances in 2013 by trading Harden so they could get something back and have a better long term outlook.

I also look at a team like the Celtics. They hurt their chances in 2011 by trading Perk so they could get something back and have a better long term outlook.

Not as expirings, but look at smaller market teams who had a chance to make some noise in the playoffs, like the 2013 Grizzlies (Gay for Prince), the 2009 Hornets (Chandler for Wilcox), the 2008 Nuggets (Camby for nothing).  You have 50+ win teams making moves that hurt overall chances that year for better situations in the future.

Fans always want to go for it all, but ownership/management doesn't always agree.

I hope the Pacers go for it all and it works out for them, but I could see the team making a move while still thinking they have a chance.  (Like Granger's expiring for another expiring, say Rodney Stuckey who they could re-sign for less than Granger).

[Moranis]

They'd keep Granger if they are on pace to be a favorite in the East.

Especially as the offers for him would be low. Expiring guys don't fetch a ton even if they are good players.  Too much risk they walk.

See I don't know if I agree.
 
I look at a team like the Thunder.  They hurt their chances in 2013 by trading Harden so they could get something back and have a better long term outlook.

I also look at a team like the Celtics. They hurt their chances in 2011 by trading Perk so they could get something back and have a better long term outlook.

Not as expirings, but look at smaller market teams who had a chance to make some noise in the playoffs, like the 2013 Grizzlies (Gay for Prince), the 2009 Hornets (Chandler for Wilcox), the 2008 Nuggets (Camby for nothing).  You have 50+ win teams making moves that hurt overall chances that year for better situations in the future.

Fans always want to go for it all, but ownership/management doesn't always agree.

I hope the Pacers go for it all and it works out for them, but I could see the team making a move while still thinking they have a chance.  (Like Granger's expiring for another expiring, say Rodney Stuckey who they could re-sign for less than Granger).

I don't think they'd move Granger for Stuckey, but I do think they would move him (not saying they will, but they would).  Granger is older and has a nice expiring contract so he is basically their only tradeable asset (that they would actually trade).  They will get the most back for him and for that reason I think they would move him in a second. 

Some trades that might make sense for both teams

If Asik and Howard aren't working in Houston, I could see something like Granger and a couple of 1sts for Asik and filler (need about 1.4 million).

If Cleveland is healthy I could see them having a real need for Granger (who still wouldn't affect their chances to try and sign James this summer since he is expiring).  Something like Granger for Clark, Gee, and Miles would seemingly make sense for both teams.

If Boston decides to go a different direction I even think Granger for Green (with filler as needed) would make some sense.  Or if Wallace shows something, his defense might be a better fit for Indiana where Granger for Wallace + value might make sense for both teams.

There are plenty of other trades out there that would seemingly work for Indiana and the other team.

[KGs Knee]

How can they be screwed when they have a top 5 player at two positions (Hibbert/George)?

Now, while I might be more bullish on George than most (I already think he's top 10), if the leap he made from year 2 to year 3 is matched with similar leap this year, he might be in consideration for top 5 overall and MVP/DPOY consideration.  Paul George is going to be a super-duper star in this league for at least the next 10 years, book it.

[D.o.s.]

When I read threads like these, it does make me happy that we're rooting for a team with an ownership group that's willing to go above the luxury tax.

[Celtics18]

How can they be screwed when they have a top 5 player at two positions (Hibbert/George)?

Now, while I might be more bullish on George than most (I already think he's top 10), if the leap he made from year 2 to year 3 is matched with similar leap this year, he might be in consideration for top 5 overall and MVP/DPOY consideration.  Paul George is going to be a super-duper star in this league for at least the next 10 years, book it.

I really like Paul George, but definitely not as much as you do.  Super star?  Maybe.  Super-duper star?  I don't see it. 

[action781]

George is great and will be great.  Hibbert is great too and will be great.  As some have mentioned, this is a team that will win around 50-55 games and be "good" for a while because of those 2 players and their ages.

Those 2 players are getting paid max money (which is not terrible, but certainly not what you'd like to pay them), but they are also paired up with 2 guys (Hill and West) who are not great and are combining for $20 mil a year.

The Pacers are completely strapped in their options for putting a solid enough supporting cast around those 4 guys.  They will inevitably overpay Granger and/or Stephenson on a long-term deal because that is their only means to put a strong team out there.  And putting a strong team out there is also their only option because otherwise they'd be paying too much money to a very mediocre team.  They will also sign a MLE player or 2 to long-term overpaid contracts because that is what contending teams do - even most of the smart ones.

Then all these overpaid contracts will still sum up to around the salary cap limit in the FA 2016 season when David West comes off the books.  Now they will be faced with this decision... "How do we fill our PF spot?  Do we resign a 35 year old West b/c we can with Bird rights?  Or do we fill it with a MLE player?  Or with one of our recent draft picks in the 20's?"  It's not going to unfold pretty...

--

Did I just repeat myself entirely?

[action781]

How can they be screwed when they have a top 5 player at two positions (Hibbert/George)?

Now, while I might be more bullish on George than most (I already think he's top 10), if the leap he made from year 2 to year 3 is matched with similar leap this year, he might be in consideration for top 5 overall and MVP/DPOY consideration.  Paul George is going to be a super-duper star in this league for at least the next 10 years, book it.

I'm not sure Hibbert is a top 5 center:  Howard - M. Gasol - then a mix of Duncan, Chandler, Noah, Hibbert, Bosh, Horford, Bogut, Bynum

Paul George and his contract remind me a whole lot of the second coming of Rudy Gay.  And for those of you who are immediately thinking "No way!" try to remember back when Rudy just got that contract and how you felt about him then.