There were two reasons SAS swept MEM:
1. Tony Parker is amazing
2. SAS disrespected all but Pondexter's jumpshooting
MIA has great shooters. You can't leave them alone. SAS has to be disciplined on the perimeter when LeBron drives to the hoop and kicks it back out.
MIA is also very versatile defensively, so SAS has to be able to switch up its offense. I trust Pop has some wrinkles ready.
I think SAS will win in 6, but every game is going down to the wire. I wouldn't be surprised if the Heat won in 5, though. They're a very good basketball team.