Jeff Green - 2nd worst contract of the summer

[Moranis]

The goal in professional sports should be about winning a title and I just don't see this summer as a real great step in that direction and one that will set the team back immensely to that end going forward.  It was a terrible off season in my estimation.  I certainly hope I am wrong and only time will tell, but I would not have gone in the direction Ainge took this team.

If they took a step backwards, it's not because of Jeff Green. You can't pin this one on him or his contract, he's just the natural evolution of the decision to retain KG and keep trying for another few years.

It is the natural evolution, but it is still a terrible contract.  Jeff Green is the highest paid role player in basketball.  He is the highest paid 5th best player on any team in the sport and is so by a wide margin.  Green's contract is about a million more than what Kendrick Perkins has left per year with OKC and Perkins is horribly overpaid, but at least starts.  Jeff Green has a ridiculous contract.

[LooseCannon]

I don't feel like starting a new thread for this and I forget if anyone linked to it, but a few days ago the NBA Geek also gave his list for the ten best contracts of the summer:

1) Ryan Anderson

Much like I thought some of the best contracts were on the top 10 worst contracts list, I think this list has many of the worst contracts.

Anderson is a one dimensional player, who will really struggle when he can't feast on wide open shots because his man is doubleteaming Dwight Howard.

I'm a big fan of the kind of player who Anderson is.  My dream would be to see him as a Celtic since I think he would look better on offense with Rondo passing him the ball than he did in Orlando.  The main concern would be if Doc Rivers won't let Anderson be the monster offensive rebounder that he is.

If KG had retired, I would have advocated using cap space to try and do a S&T for Anderson and filled out the roster the way that the Mavericks did, including putting in bids for amnestied players.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

The goal in professional sports should be about winning a title and I just don't see this summer as a real great step in that direction and one that will set the team back immensely to that end going forward.  It was a terrible off season in my estimation.  I certainly hope I am wrong and only time will tell, but I would not have gone in the direction Ainge took this team.

If they took a step backwards, it's not because of Jeff Green. You can't pin this one on him or his contract, he's just the natural evolution of the decision to retain KG and keep trying for another few years.

It is the natural evolution, but it is still a terrible contract.  Jeff Green is the highest paid role player in basketball.  He is the highest paid 5th best player on any team in the sport and is so by a wide margin.  Green's contract is about a million more than what Kendrick Perkins has left per year with OKC and Perkins is horribly overpaid, but at least starts.  Jeff Green has a ridiculous contract.

How is he the 5th best player? Are saying Bass or AB are better? 3 ppl are better than Green on our team... PP, KG, and RR, only one is young enough to play for as many years as Green could, if we give him an average NBA players playing span. Who else is better than Green, then show me proof to back it up.

[Moranis]

The goal in professional sports should be about winning a title and I just don't see this summer as a real great step in that direction and one that will set the team back immensely to that end going forward.  It was a terrible off season in my estimation.  I certainly hope I am wrong and only time will tell, but I would not have gone in the direction Ainge took this team.

If they took a step backwards, it's not because of Jeff Green. You can't pin this one on him or his contract, he's just the natural evolution of the decision to retain KG and keep trying for another few years.

It is the natural evolution, but it is still a terrible contract.  Jeff Green is the highest paid role player in basketball.  He is the highest paid 5th best player on any team in the sport and is so by a wide margin.  Green's contract is about a million more than what Kendrick Perkins has left per year with OKC and Perkins is horribly overpaid, but at least starts.  Jeff Green has a ridiculous contract.

How is he the 5th best player? Are saying Bass or AB are better? 3 ppl are better than Green on our team... PP, KG, and RR, only one is young enough to play for as many years as Green could, if we give him an average NBA players playing span. Who else is better than Green, then show me proof to back it up.

I believe Bradley will be better going forward (if he can stay healthy), but believe Terry is definitely better next year and wouldn't be surprised if Bass and Lee were also better.  Jeff Green is an average player, but he isn't a 9 million a year player.  He isn't a very strong shooter, he isn't going to blow past anyone on the dribble, he lacks post moves, he isn't a good rebounder, and is an average at best passer.  He is a better than average defender at the 3, but he is far from elite.  Jeff Green's overall skill set rates him as an about average backup, but he is being paid like he is a starter.  Jeff Green isn't a starter.  If he is starting on your team, then your team isn't very good. 

EDIT: Jeff Green is essentially Marvin Williams.  Very similar skill sets and careers.  Marvin Williams signed a 5 year, 37 million dollar contract with the Hawks a few years ago and the Hawks were brutalized for giving him that contract.  That is a better contract than the Celtics just gave Jeff Green and Jeff Green missed an entire season with a heart defect. 

[The Walker Wiggle]

How is he the 5th best player? Are saying Bass or AB are better? 3 ppl are better than Green on our team... PP, KG, and RR, only one is young enough to play for as many years as Green could, if we give him an average NBA players playing span. Who else is better than Green, then show me proof to back it up.

Okay, I'll bite. Let me say, I love Green's character and effort level and basketball IQ. But his intangibles remain that, and haven't translated in to enough on-court success to justify $9-$10 million per season.

What does he do better than the league average SF? He's an above average rebounder at the 3 (but a poor rebounder at the 4). He's a below average shooter who doesn’t draw many fouls. He needs to take fewer three point attempts and focus on attacking the rim. His assist rate is below average. And his defensive metrics are mediocre. By the numbers he's not a clear NBA starter.

19.5 PTS 7.7 REB 2.1 AST 2.1 TO 1.6 STL 53.0 TS% 1.16 PPS 3.5 FTA Jeff Green (09-10)
19.7 PTS 7.1 REB 2.1 AST 2.0 TO 1.0 STL 53.8 TS% 1.22 PPS 4.8 FTA Jeff Green (10-11)
20.3 PTS 7.2 REB 3.5 AST 2.4 TO 1.5 STL 54.1 TS% 1.22 PPS 4.7 FTA Average NBA SF (11-12)

*Minutes Adjusted

Now give me your case against Avery Bradey and Brandon Bass?

[Interceptor]

Sorry to interrupt the regularly scheduled off-season argument, but why does everyone say that Jeff Green doesn't have a post game?

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

How is he the 5th best player? Are saying Bass or AB are better? 3 ppl are better than Green on our team... PP, KG, and RR, only one is young enough to play for as many years as Green could, if we give him an average NBA players playing span. Who else is better than Green, then show me proof to back it up.

Okay, I'll bite. Let me say, I love Green's character and effort level and basketball IQ. But his intangibles remain that, and haven't translated in to enough on-court success to justify $9-$10 million per season.

What does he do better than the league average SF? He's an above average rebounder at the 3 (but a poor rebounder at the 4). He's a below average shooter who doesn’t draw many fouls. He needs to take fewer three point attempts and focus on attacking the rim. His assist rate is below average. And his defensive metrics are mediocre. By the numbers he's not a clear NBA starter.

19.5 PTS 7.7 REB 2.1 AST 2.1 TO 1.6 STL 53.0 TS% 1.16 PPS 3.5 FTA Jeff Green (09-10)
19.7 PTS 7.1 REB 2.1 AST 2.0 TO 1.0 STL 53.8 TS% 1.22 PPS 4.8 FTA Jeff Green (10-11)
20.3 PTS 7.2 REB 3.5 AST 2.4 TO 1.5 STL 54.1 TS% 1.22 PPS 4.7 FTA Average NBA SF (11-12)

*Minutes Adjusted

Now give me your case against Avery Bradley and Brandon Bass?

Wait, when are those Bass and Avery stats against Green? He said he's OUR 5th best player. JET has bigger balls and may be more aggressive but I would take Green on D over JET's. I am not talking one end of the floor. I'd take JET for pure heart and killer instinct but all around he isn't better than Green.

[BballTim]

Chris Bosh didn't even play in the series until game 5 and he only played 14 minutes in that one.  The two games Bosh gave the Heat any sort of minutes, the Heat won by 19 and 13.  Everyone always forgets about Bosh when they talk about that series and only focus on the Bradley, JO, and Wilcox injuries (even Wade was clearly hampered by a knee injury).  None of the injured Celtics are anywhere close to as good as Chris Bosh.  With a healthy Bosh that is a 5 game series even if Bradley plays the whole time. 

  Whether Bosh is a better player than Bradley isn't the issue, how much better the Celts played with Bradley in and how they match up better with the Heat is. Put Bradley and Bosh in for the entire series and the Celts win in 5-6 games.

[soap07]

Chris Bosh didn't even play in the series until game 5 and he only played 14 minutes in that one.  The two games Bosh gave the Heat any sort of minutes, the Heat won by 19 and 13.  Everyone always forgets about Bosh when they talk about that series and only focus on the Bradley, JO, and Wilcox injuries (even Wade was clearly hampered by a knee injury).  None of the injured Celtics are anywhere close to as good as Chris Bosh.  With a healthy Bosh that is a 5 game series even if Bradley plays the whole time. 

  Whether Bosh is a better player than Bradley isn't the issue, how much better the Celts played with Bradley in and how they match up better with the Heat is. Put Bradley and Bosh in for the entire series and the Celts win in 5-6 games.

This actually might be one of the craziest things I've read on the forums in awhile.

[The Walker Wiggle]

How is he the 5th best player? Are saying Bass or AB are better? 3 ppl are better than Green on our team... PP, KG, and RR, only one is young enough to play for as many years as Green could, if we give him an average NBA players playing span. Who else is better than Green, then show me proof to back it up.

Okay, I'll bite. Let me say, I love Green's character and effort level and basketball IQ. But his intangibles remain that, and haven't translated in to enough on-court success to justify $9-$10 million per season.

What does he do better than the league average SF? He's an above average rebounder at the 3 (but a poor rebounder at the 4). He's a below average shooter who doesn’t draw many fouls. He needs to take fewer three point attempts and focus on attacking the rim. His assist rate is below average. And his defensive metrics are mediocre. By the numbers he's not a clear NBA starter.

19.5 PTS 7.7 REB 2.1 AST 2.1 TO 1.6 STL 53.0 TS% 1.16 PPS 3.5 FTA Jeff Green (09-10)
19.7 PTS 7.1 REB 2.1 AST 2.0 TO 1.0 STL 53.8 TS% 1.22 PPS 4.8 FTA Jeff Green (10-11)
20.3 PTS 7.2 REB 3.5 AST 2.4 TO 1.5 STL 54.1 TS% 1.22 PPS 4.7 FTA Average NBA SF (11-12)

*Minutes Adjusted

Now give me your case against Avery Bradley and Brandon Bass?

Wait, when are those Bass and Avery stats against Green? He said he's OUR 5th best player. JET has bigger balls and may be more aggressive but I would take Green on D over JET's. I am not talking one end of the floor. I'd take JET for pure heart and killer instinct but all around he isn't better than Green.

Oh, I didn’t think head to head comparisons would be all that telling since the three play different positions. But here you go.

14.8 Points 53.8 TS% 5.3 REB 1.6 AST 0.7 Steals 0.5 Blocks 1.5 TOs 3.1 PF J. Green (10-11)
14.3 Points 52.4 TS% 7.0 REB 1.1 AST 0.7 Steals 1.0 Blocks 1.3 TOs 2.6 PF B. Bass (11-12)
12.7 Points 55.5 TS% 3.0 REB 2.3 AST 1.1 Steals 0.3 Blocks 2.0 TOs 2.9 PF A. Bradley (11-12)

*Minutes Adjusted

What do you think? Green holds up well offensively against Bass, scoring half a point more in the same number of attempts per 36. As I said before, he’s a poor rebounder compared to a power forward like Bass. Bradley is the most efficient scorer of the three, but his assist to turnover ratio is an area he needs to improve. Defense is harder to measure, but by both PPP and DRtg, Green is significantly worse (Green – 108, Bradley – 102, Bass – a career best 99).

[The Walker Wiggle]

Sorry to interrupt the regularly scheduled off-season argument, but why does everyone say that Jeff Green doesn't have a post game?

I don’t know if he does or doesn’t? Here’s what I could find. Spot-ups: .901 ppp (42nd percentile), Post-ups: .828 ppp (44th percentile), Pick-and-roll roll man: 1.103 ppp (74th percentile), Transition: 1.373 ppp (86th percentile), Isolation: .7 ppp (30th percentile), Cuts: 1.373 ppp (79th percentile)

It would seem that for a small forward he’s above average in the post. That said it’s certainly not his best shot. In fact, it’s his second worst shot, after iso attempts, where he’s just bad. So, he’s still better off looking to get out in transition, or cutting or rolling to the hoop.

[ImShakHeIsShaq]

How is he the 5th best player? Are saying Bass or AB are better? 3 ppl are better than Green on our team... PP, KG, and RR, only one is young enough to play for as many years as Green could, if we give him an average NBA players playing span. Who else is better than Green, then show me proof to back it up.

Okay, I'll bite. Let me say, I love Green's character and effort level and basketball IQ. But his intangibles remain that, and haven't translated in to enough on-court success to justify $9-$10 million per season.

What does he do better than the league average SF? He's an above average rebounder at the 3 (but a poor rebounder at the 4). He's a below average shooter who doesn’t draw many fouls. He needs to take fewer three point attempts and focus on attacking the rim. His assist rate is below average. And his defensive metrics are mediocre. By the numbers he's not a clear NBA starter.

19.5 PTS 7.7 REB 2.1 AST 2.1 TO 1.6 STL 53.0 TS% 1.16 PPS 3.5 FTA Jeff Green (09-10)
19.7 PTS 7.1 REB 2.1 AST 2.0 TO 1.0 STL 53.8 TS% 1.22 PPS 4.8 FTA Jeff Green (10-11)
20.3 PTS 7.2 REB 3.5 AST 2.4 TO 1.5 STL 54.1 TS% 1.22 PPS 4.7 FTA Average NBA SF (11-12)

*Minutes Adjusted

Now give me your case against Avery Bradley and Brandon Bass?

Wait, when are those Bass and Avery stats against Green? He said he's OUR 5th best player. JET has bigger balls and may be more aggressive but I would take Green on D over JET's. I am not talking one end of the floor. I'd take JET for pure heart and killer instinct but all around he isn't better than Green.

Oh, I didn’t think head to head comparisons would be all that telling since the three play different positions. But here you go.

14.8 Points 53.8 TS% 5.3 REB 1.6 AST 0.7 Steals 0.5 Blocks 1.5 TOs 3.1 PF J. Green (10-11)
14.3 Points 52.4 TS% 7.0 REB 1.1 AST 0.7 Steals 1.0 Blocks 1.3 TOs 2.6 PF B. Bass (11-12)
12.7 Points 55.5 TS% 3.0 REB 2.3 AST 1.1 Steals 0.3 Blocks 2.0 TOs 2.9 PF A. Bradley (11-12)

*Minutes Adjusted

What do you think? Green holds up well offensively against Bass, scoring half a point more in the same number of attempts per 36. As I said before, he’s a poor rebounder compared to a power forward like Bass. Bradley is the most efficient scorer of the three, but his assist to turnover ratio is an area he needs to improve. Defense is harder to measure, but by both PPP and DRtg, Green is significantly worse (Green – 108, Bradley – 102, Bass – a career best 99).

Convenient, put up Green's half season with us after that huge shake-up and his first time off the bench (playing behind PP). Okay that's fine. They aren't better than Green and even those numbers prove just that. I am not worried about position because that isn't the debate, the assertion was he is 5th best, you still haven't proven he is!

[BballTim]

Chris Bosh didn't even play in the series until game 5 and he only played 14 minutes in that one.  The two games Bosh gave the Heat any sort of minutes, the Heat won by 19 and 13.  Everyone always forgets about Bosh when they talk about that series and only focus on the Bradley, JO, and Wilcox injuries (even Wade was clearly hampered by a knee injury).  None of the injured Celtics are anywhere close to as good as Chris Bosh.  With a healthy Bosh that is a 5 game series even if Bradley plays the whole time. 

  Whether Bosh is a better player than Bradley isn't the issue, how much better the Celts played with Bradley in and how they match up better with the Heat is. Put Bradley and Bosh in for the entire series and the Celts win in 5-6 games.

This actually might be one of the craziest things I've read on the forums in awhile.

  If you think it's crazy I must be on the right track.

[Interceptor]

I don’t know if he does or doesn’t?

He does. It's one of the things that Green brings to the table. Bass only really has two things in his toolkit: his deadly mid-range jumper, and powering up for a dunk through four people. Which is great, but what he has is mostly just that. And yes, they play different positions, but Bass is a good example of someone who is limited, so I use him.

Your numbers support what I've seen from Green's limited play (transition and cuts are things he is good at), but he's also alright at other things. For example, he can do this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wc7fm-0MN1w

Granted, this is against Amar'e, who couldn't guard my grandmother, but Green at least has some semblance of moves down low. He is going to do most of his damage with Rondo in transition, but he also gives us something that's not just flat jumpshots all day long (I know everyone here loves those).

[mmmmm]

No, I'm still in the corner of you being out of your tree. Celtics are not dominating the Heat by any means, but we match up very well with them, and I think that your declaration that they only have an "outside shot" really undersells, here.

I want to focus in and reinforce this point here.

The Celtics played Miami 11 times last year.  They ended up winning 6 and losing 5.

If the C's had gotten just a tiny, tiny bit lucky and got the ref calls that didn't go their way in Game 2, then all other things being the same, they would have ended the season series against Miami winning 7 and losing 2.

Any suggestions that the C's didn't match up well with the Heat last year are, of course, not supported by what happened.

Going forward, the question is, did the Heat improve more by adding Allen & Lewis than the C's did by adding Green, Wilcox, Terry & Lee?

Positionally, Allen is an upgrade for their starting offense in the role of outside perimeter shooter on kick-outs.  And that's a huge part of their current offensive scheme.  But he will probably downgrade their defense if he is a Battier replacement.

I have no idea what to expect from Lewis.  He looked awful with the Wizards, but that was a lost season.  I don't expect him to be THAT bad again.  I don't really know what his role will end up being.  Is he an upgrade over Miller?  Is he a Bosh backup?  What?

Green is a major upgrade over Pietrus/Daniels/Pavs as bench SF.   Pierce' own statements in an interview make it clear that he expects Green to help cut his minutes down to help preserve him for the playoffs.  This implies (a) Doc will try to give Green a lot of minutes during the regular season and (b) Paul actually is totally behind this.  Green's biggest playoff contribution could be in the form of giving us a healthier Pierce when the playoffs hit.

Wilcox is flying under the radar, but I expect him to be a huge boost to our big man rotation.  People seem to have forgotten just how well the team was starting to play with him - especially teamed with KG & Rondo - in the games right before his heart problem surfaced.   He and KG give us a big, mobile front court that can match-up with any in the NBA.  They have complementary skills on offense and KG makes CW better on defense by reducing his responsibilities.

Lee is a different player - slightly less offense, more defense - but overall value should be at least what Ray provided last year (considering that Ray was injured for much of that).  And if we get a healthy AB back at starter then he's a massive upgrade over what we had backing up the SG spot in the playoffs.

And Terry is a ridiculous upgrade over Dooling as the backup PG and swing combo guard.   And we still have Dooling.

Overall, I see a starting unit that got younger than what we started and ended with last year and a bench that is massively, massively better than what we ended with.

And I didn't even mention the rookies or Collins.

I just don't see how you can look at the two teams and not see that, on paper, the C's made much more solid and comprehensive improvements.