Top Ten Overrated Prospects According to The Wages of Win

[sofutomygaha]

I'm a big fan of anyone who comes up with a quantitative method, tells you the results, and tells you how they got them. Everything I read outside of Hollinger, WoW, and basketball-reference is different people's gut feelings or rumors with unspecified origin or intention. This is making me read more about Jae Crowder and Quincy Miller.

The interesting thing about Miller here is that John Hollinger also does a purely quantitative projection with a similar success rate and he finds Miller to be the single most underrated prospect in the draft.

[sofutomygaha]

I just read the WoW methodology and I don't see anything about correction for strength of schedule. If I am missing it, can someone point it out?

[mmmmm]

As far as I can tell, their method doesn't control for first-year teenagers playing and being measured against 23yo seniors.

This^.

I have a real hard time accepting their methodology.  Going contrary to this sort of thinking was why Danny was able to snag Avery Bradley so low.

They are down on sophomore Perry Jones and freshman-back-from-injury Quincy Miller because of lack of production on a team they both shared with Acy.   And they recommend instead taking 4-year man Tyler Zeller over Jones and 2nd year man Crowder over Miller.  

Did they bother to compare Zeller's 2nd year production to PJ3's?  Crowder's 1st year production to Miller's?

Using per-40, pace adjusted, same year in school:

Name	pts	reb	assists	blks	stl	FG%	FT%	3P%
PJ3(2012)	17.6	9.8	1.6	0.8	1.1	50.0	69.6	30.3
Zeller(2010)	17.4	9.8	0.5	1.9	1.1	52.1%	72.2	0.0

Name	pts	reb	assists	blks	stl	FG%	FT%	3P%
Miller(2012)	17.1	7.9	2.3	1.0	1.1	44.7	81.6	34.8
Crowder(2011)	16.7	9.6	2.2	1.2	1.8	48.5	61.6	35.9

Viewed this way, their recommendations aren't so compelling.

Claiming a '70%' success rate - that's not exactly inspiring.  

[sofutomygaha]

excellent

[sofutomygaha]

I'm happy to see you over here in the forums!