Some of these predictions are my own thoughts regarding the players, their abilities, and how I expect them to respond to the scenarios in which they find themselves. The others are what I would expect from a "manufactured" or "rigged" game. I will lay out some claims on paper and see how they pan out -- just so we can have a definitive record of our expectations.
Player Predictions: Miami
This is what will happen in a game that Miami wins.
- Battier will play much better. I set the over-unders at 8 points, 3 rebs, 2 assists, and a steal or block
- Chalmers will hit at least one incredibly unpleasant, dagger-to-the-heart 3. The over-under for this is set at two. I'll take under.
- Lebron will come out like a house on fire and score at least 12 in the first quarter and 19 in the first half. He will have at least 6 first half FTs.
- Wade will have a terrible first half and score more or less only in transition. (Not that this helps Miami win, it'll just happen. Wade is not that good, ladies and gentlemen.)
- Bosh will have at least one 3 minute stretch in which he scores at least 6 points this game.
Player Predictions: Boston
This is what will happen in a game Boston wins.
- KG will control the paint. At least 6 baskets from within 12 feet.
- Rondo will draw fouls and shoot free throws
- Pierce will get Lebron in moderate foul trouble (extremely unlikely -- I'd bet $50 Lebron finishes the 1st half with 2 fouls or less.)
- Dooling, Marquis, and Pietrus will keep up their defense and somehow not get whistled even more than they did in Boston. This seems very unlikely, and frankly could be what the game hinges on. If our benches' defensive go-getters get victimized on hand-check calls, at least 2 of these guys will have 5 fouls or more and 1 will have 4 by games' end. I really, really see at least 2 of these guys picking up 2-3 fouls in the 1st half (Quis and Pietrus, probably) and I also see myself getting incensed, swearing in the game thread, and being banned for Celticsblog life. Hopefully I'm wrong about at least one of those things. But seriously, these guys getting called for ticky-tack stuff will put Boston in the bonus early and allow Miami to hang around even if they are not playing well, via free throws from Lebron and Wade.
- Rondo, obviously, has to attack and orchestrate. Whether this means scoring or getting guys easy shots up the wahzoo, the reality is either Rondo or Pierce has to score at least 20 in game 5 for us to win.
- Expect Ray Allen to hit at least 2 threes in a winning effort.
"This League is Rigged I Tell You!" Predictions:
- Miami shoots at least 40 FTs.
- Boston shoots less than 25 Fts.
- Ray Allen or Pierce pick up 2 quick ones in the first 5 minutes of the game
- Lebron gets shots every time he goes to the rim, with even the slightest hint of contact. Note: He may deserve them, it's possible he will do a great job drawing contact, blowing by guys, and forcing fouls. One thing that will show we are getting jobbed for sure, though, is if Wade also gets those calls going to the basket. If this game is fixed, Wade will get to the line on nonsense: self-created contact, offensive fouls, and phantom/touch stuff. This series has shown definitely to me that Wade is at the very most at top 15 player. Miami looked positively toothless without Lebron in the waning moments of game 4. When we defend Wade properly in the half-court, he can't beat people off the drive.
- Mario Chalmers will get away with at least 1 egregious violation -- traveling, palming, a double dribble, what have you. He will also get away with mugging Rondo on drives to the hoop, no call to be found.
- Expect every block/charge call to go Miami's way
Last thoughts / underrated-ly key players to this next game:
- Battier from long range, particularly in the corner.
- James Jones playing more minutes than Mike Miller would spell trouble for Boston. He is better than Miller.
- Dooling will have to make shots
- Best way to know we're flowing well offensively: Marquis Daniels makes a nice pass for an assist.
- If we walk it up for more than 1 quarter of the game, we're toast
GO CELTICS!
Topic: Predictions, Thoughts and Keys to Game 5 (Read 1084 times)