Be logical... what are your odds?

[Celtics18]

As currently constructed, the C's would be one of the worst of 16 playoff teams. if all teams in the playoffs had an equal shot of winning the title, then each team in the playoffs would have a 6.25% chance of winning the title. So keep that in mind as a baseline. As it stnads right now, the C's are looking to be a 7 seed, so on the road in the first round. Drop them a little bit. They'll be playing a team that is better than them, so drop a little more. If they manage to win, they'd be on the road in round 2, so drop a couple more points; still playing a better team, so a couple more points, etc. Now, we've been hurt by injuries this year, but unfortunately the major injuries have been at the same position (center) and are likely season ending (definitely for wilcox, seems unlikely for JO). So that should hurt in the playoffs.

Of course if we get a couple spots higher, we'd increase our odds, but still would likely have to go through BOTH Chicago and Miami on the road.

And, a favorable buyout, if he came here, could push us up some more.

So for a 7 seeded team with serious injuries and lack of quality at center, meaning all playoff games on the road against better teams, I'd say our odds would be about 2%. Adding a truly legit center might up our odds to 4%, and if we could add them early enough to get up to the 4th seed, maybe 8% just because we'd get a home series and decrease the chances of seeing one of miami/chicago.


I think it's easy to throw out odds, but remember that 16 teams make the playoffs, and all of their odds have to add up to 100. So if you say the C's have a 25% chance as a 7 seed, then there's only 75% to divvy up between all 15 other teams! I think Chicago and Miami are clearly better than the C's, so they get at least 25% each, meaning that there's only a 25% chance that any western team at all wins the title, even though by themselves I think OKC has better odds than the Cs.

So yeah, begas currently has 1:40 odds, or 2.5%. And when it gets down there, I think vegas OVER estimates the odds because if a 1:100 ever comes through they get really screwed, and they know fans of teams that have "real" odds of 1:100 will still buy in at 1:40 odds.

Let's give Miami, Chicago, and OKC 25% each, adding up to a 75% chance that one of those three teams wins a title.  Where I differ with your assessment is that, regardless of seeding, I would actually rank the Celtics' chances among the top of the remaining 13 playoff teams based on their talent and playoff experience.  

Any way you slice it, I don't think you can put the odds much higher than a very optimistic 7 or 8% right now.

I'm just hoping that when the Larry O'Brien trophy is handed out that the Celtics end up being the ones who in hindsight had a 100% chance to win the whole thing all along.

[Celtics18]

Can't believe you guys aren't believing what the world is telling you. 2% max because 40:1 Is the offer side and bid is at least 1% below that. The mid is 2%. Vegas doesn't dream up the odds randomly. It is based on how much people are willing to pay. Crowds are smarter than individuals and certainly smarter than die hard Cs fans with crazy massive bias. Upsets do happen of course and the Celts could win it all.  There's a 1% chance after all !!

"Crowd are smarter than individuals.": That kind of thinking has led to disastrous results on more than one occasion.

[ben]

i put 100$ down on the celtics winning banner 18 this year.  When they win i get 3,500$  Of course the odds don't matter though because winning banner 18 this year for the celtics would be priceless.  Go Celtics!

[Zuzubar]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA

So, you're telling me there's a chance!

[vinnie]

I would say 5-10 percent chance of winning it all, Kaman or no Kaman

[EDWARDO]

Excellent point. This isn't a political philosophy though. Just trying to figure out what the right odds are.

I e never heard anyone other than various people on this board argue that the Celts are "one doable trade away" from being a legit contender.

The market is very very smart and it's also telling us the Cs chances are remote.

People are going bonkers about "epic fails" when logic, backed by the numbers, indicate the exact opposite.

There's a chance. I'll be watching and hoping and living and dying with every play. But, the chances are really resale low.

[Celtics18]

Excellent point. This isn't a political philosophy though. Just trying to figure out what the right odds are.

I e never heard anyone other than various people on this board argue that the Celts are "one doable trade away" from being a legit contender.

The market is very very smart and it's also telling us the Cs chances are remote.

People are going bonkers about "epic fails" when logic, backed by the numbers, indicate the exact opposite.

There's a chance. I'll be watching and hoping and living and dying with every play. But, the chances are really resale low.

Well, I don't consider today an "epic fail."  I'm excited that the gang is still together and get a chance to go out there and compete for wins every night for the rest of the regular season and the playoffs, letting the chips fall where they may. 

[hpantazo]

odds with the roster we have now: 25%

odds if we land Kaman via a buyout? 33%

I'll take those odds

Wow. That'd make them the 3rd highest odds I would guess?  Miami and Chicago are definitely higher than us. No one from the awest?

well, the questions was what are MY odds. That's what they are

[EDWARDO]

Have done more digging on the listed odds. Seems average is around 30:1 or so. Most of these were ore-deadline levels as well. That's about 3:1 odds... A bit higher.

But the total odds for just the top 5 teams is well above 100% on most of these sites. Obviously, they are only selling these odds at much higher levels than the overall market would call fair.

2% seems high to me. The odds are inflated by at least 50% for the teams past the top 7 or 8...

[wahz]

very shortened playoff rotation

c- KG 34 min, Stiemsma 14
f-Bass 36, KG 4, PP 8
f-PP 30, Pietrus 18
G-Ray 37, Pietrus 11
G-Rondo 38, Bradley 10

our odds? 15%. I don't think thats that awful, but yeah with Kaman we go to 30% easy

[azzenfrost]

That's still better odds than blowing it up.

[chambers]

If those are the odds, then you trade Ray Allen, Pierce and guys like Bass or Pietrus for whatever you can get. 2nd rounders. Young players in rookie contracts. Take some salary for the next season and get some picks for it.

I have a hard time believing nobody offered a 1st round pick for Pierce or Allen, considering they were offered for Jordan Hill, Camby or G. Wallace, but you get what you can.

This was completely indefensible by Ainge. Either this team could compete for a title this year or not. If Ainge's assessment was negative, then he had to get something for the current assets. Heck, a late 2nd rounder can become the next Manu Ginobili.

Or you can resign our vets for cheap, bring them back and have one of the strongest benches in the NBA.
Go after Dwight Howard and Andre Iguadala.

Starting five:

Rondo
Iggy
Pierce
KG
Howard

this is an example- but obviously Danny has a plan and it is to throw the kitchen sink at Howard and probably Deron Williams in free agency.
If that fails, we can move the resigned vets to someone like Chicago and go into full tank mode.
ie: Pierce+ray+KG to Chicago, get back Boozer+Charlottes pick (lottery pick).
If you think Danny has left it at this then you're not giving him enough credit.
This is part of a long term plan that involves going after Howard, Deron or Chris Paul, with a fall back plan of going into tank mode for 2-3 years and acquiring meaningful picks.
He obviously feels they can resign KG and Ray on the cheap and it would not surprise me (in pure speculation)if he has talked with them about resigning them and then sending them somewhere like Chicago who would love to unload Boozer and gain these 2 in return for a top 10 pick.

Think past the end of this season and into the free agency period next year.

[Employee8]

We know who we are and we aren't anybody else except for who we are.  We're an aging veteran team going for one last glory run.  We are 4 or 5 pieces away from a title team.  I understand this.  I accept this. 

My odds for screaming at the TV and cheering them on with every basket and thinking that with every momentum swing in a game that THIS could be the run that'll win the game: 100%.  It'll be a postseason to remember.  Your decision if you want to tune in or not.

[Casperian]

I would like to nominate this thread for "thread of the year".

Hilarious.

[OmarSekou]

Haven't done the math but about 0-5%. I wouldn't put anyone in the league above 25% though.

I legitimately think we could lose to any of the current playoff teams in the East (except the Bucks who we won't play). Outside of the Heat and Bulls, there's a lot of parity.

The two teams that I'm really worried about are the Heat and Orlando. I figured Orlando would collapse, but with DH resigning for another year I expect them to finish out the year strong. The grind is already getting to Rose.

Assuming we get out of the East, we'd have to win in the Finals. There are a lot of teams we don't match up well with (Thunder, Lakers, Grizz). Winning a title? That's a tough stretch.

But this is a team I'm happy to go to war with. This is a team I'm going to enjoy watching compete. We are literally the old guard. I expect us to leave our hearts on the floor. I'll be satisfied with that.

I'm a boxing fan. A great champion has earned the right to finish the fight. You don't throw in the towel before it's over. We have great champions on our team. Anything is possible. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgenYK7VaxY