Cap space for future free agents is extremely over-rated

[nickagneta]

I've seen a lot of talk regarding the Celtics needing to blow it all up, get younger, not resign Paul and Ray past 2 years, etc., because we need to keep as much cap space open for the year after KG leaves as possible. Why? Mostly because people want to be able to sign a free agent that will revitalize this team and catapult them back to the top. I'm here to say that that is extremely over rated.

Why? Well, first off I think people are being misled into thinking that great free agents come out every year because of the way this year has worked out. But, it doesn't work out that way most year. Most years there aren't even any players that are really worth a maximum contract that wants to move from their team to another.

So as proof let's take a look at the players that Hoopshype.com says will be free agents in the summer of 2012, the year KG's salary expires and the year many were hoping we would have huge cap space to add free agents.


Unrestricted Free Agents
Mike Bibby     Atlanta    
Rasheed Wallace    Boston    
Boris Diaw    Charlotte    
Kirk Hinrich    Chicago    
Antawn Jamison    Cleveland    
Jason Kidd    Dallas    
Eduardo Najera    Dallas    
Jason Terry    Dallas    
Carmelo Anthony    Denver    
Chauncey Billups    Denver    
Nene Hilario    Denver    
Charlie Bell    Golden State    
Ronny Turiaf    Golden State    
Chris Kaman    L.A. Clippers    
Carlos Delfino    Milwaukee    
Ersan Ilyasova    Milwaukee    
Ryan Hollins    Minnesota    
James Posey    New Orleans    
David West    New Orleans    
Bill Walker    New York    
Kyle Weaver    Oklahoma City    
Vince Carter    Orlando    
Mickael Pietrus    Orlando    
Leandro Barbosa    Phoenix    
Goran Dragic    Phoenix    
Steve Nash    Phoenix    
Marcus Camby    Portland    
Andre Miller    Portland    
Tim Duncan    San Antonio    
Antonio McDyess    San Antonio    
CJ Miles    Utah    
Mehmet Okur    Utah    
Andray Blatche    Washington    


Restricted Free Agents
Alexis Ajinca    Charlotte    
D.J. Augustin    Charlotte    
Derrick Rose    Chicago    
J.J. Hickson    Cleveland    
Anthony Randolph    Golden State    
David Andersen    Houston    
Roy Hibbert    Indiana    
A.J. Price    Indiana    
Brandon Rush    Indiana    
Eric Gordon    L.A. Clippers    
Darrell Arthur    Memphis    
O.J. Mayo    Memphis    
Sam Young    Memphis    
Michael Beasley    Miami    
Kevin Love    Minnesota    
Courtney Lee    New Jersey    
Brook Lopez    New Jersey    
Danilo Gallinari    New York    
Russell Westbrook    Oklahoma City    
D.J. White    Oklahoma City    
Ryan Anderson    Orlando    
Jodie Meeks    Philadelphia    
Marreese Speights    Philadelphia    
Robin Lopez    Phoenix    
Nicolas Batum    Portland    
Jerryd Bayless    Portland    
Rudolfo Fernandez    Portland    
Jeff Pendergraph    Portland    
Donte Greene    Sacramento    
Jason Thompson    Sacramento    
George Hill    San Antonio    
Kosta Koufos    Utah    
JaVale McGee    Washington    

First let's discuss the restricted free agents. Restricted free agents don't tend to change teams unless the team doesn't want them because they aren't that good or because they can't afford them. But, as Memphis just proved, most teams feel that can not afford not to sign them.

So dream all you want but the chances of landing a Derrick Rose, Brook Lopez, OJ Mayo, Kevin Love, George Hill, Russell Westbrook or any of the other top RFAs isn't going to happen because they are more than likely not even going to be allowed to reach free agency. The rest, the teams will let them shop and then just match the offer if the team doesn't sign them before hand. The rest, will be dregs that you do not rebuild teams with.

As for the unrestricted free agents, who there is really very appetizing for rebuilding a squad. The Celtics are not going to sign any of the senior citizens like Nash, Duncan, Miller, Camby, McDyess, Kidd, Diaw, Terry, Billups or Bibby. Heck most of them will probably be retiring. And the one true superstar in that list Carmelo Anthony is already being given extension offers to pull him off this list.

Is there really any other players on that list of UFAs that look as if the Celtics should be signing them to rebuild a franchise with? Not to me.

Now not included in this list are the UFAs that will be created in 2011 by having restricted free agents accept the qualifying offers their teams offer them to get free as soon as possible. This is a rather rare occurrence with most big names never having this happen. Some notables of recent years of this happening to have been Ray Felton, Nate Robinson and Ben Gordon. You will almost never see a talent the caliber of Kevin Durant, Greg Oden, Joakim Noah or Jeff Green take a qualifying offer so anyone that gets left over from the 2011 free agnecy period because they took their team's qualifying offer isn't going to be a superstar. That just doesn't happen.

So don't be discouraged about the Celtics signing players into the year after KG expires because that isn't the year that they need cap space. It's the year after. 2013. That's when a bunch of difference making players hit free agency again and the year the Celtics have to plan for having cap space, especially if Lebron decides he owes it to Cleveland to give it another 3 year window and signs a 3 year contract to return there and then becomes available in 2013. because in 2013 the list of players include

LeBron James - if he signs a three year deal to return to Cleveland
Dwight Howard
Gerald Wallace
Josh Smith
Kevin Martin
Andrew Bynum
Al Jefferson
Chris Paul
Deron Williams
 

[Who]

Agreed -- cap space solely in terms of signing a free agent is over rated.

However, cap flexibility in terms of free agency + trade opportunities + higher draft picks as a result of weaker rosters ... is very valuable.

[wdleehi]

I think that cap space is important in the future.


When KG, Ray and Pierce are done and the Celtics need to rebuild, I want to see a team with Rondo, Perk (with a good extension) and one or two low payed, highly useful role players (Davis for example).

The rest, cap space.  Not just to go after FAs, but to have the ability to use the cap space to make trades.



That is why Pierce's deal is a good deal.  It is basically a three year deal.

[Brendan]

Agreed -- cap space solely in terms of signing a free agent is over rated.

However, cap flexibility in terms of free agency + trade opportunities + higher draft picks as a result of weaker rosters ... is very valuable.

Although we don't know what the new CBA will do to the trade parts, or even the FA signing part. What if in the new CBA deals can only be three years plus an option -period-. What if cap space trades are restricted because the stooopid owners are getting ticked at the smart owners, etc.

[More Banners]

Cap space for FA's is surely a sucker's game, as evidenced by the nutso deals being thrown around ($30 million for Frye?).  Have a bit more than the MLE in cap space would provide an advantage in getting players in that range, i.e. being able to offer $8 million instead of the $6 that everyone else can.

Cap space to absorb contracts of talented, but not needed players from other teams with salary or revenue problems could be a great, great thing for a rebuilding team.

So I'd like some cap space, please, but let's not overdo it.

[the_Bird]

Cap space also lets you shoehorn in on other deals, facilitating trades and picking up assets (draft picks, etc) along the way.