All The King’s Horses And All The King’s Men
Finals are over and while I lament the Celtics’ loss there is a part of me that finds reality validated in Boston falling to a very good Lakers team. Once Perkins went down in the 6th game it seemed the writing was on the wall. At full strength the Green were putting together a turn-back-the-clock run with ferocious defense, heady veteran offense exercising ball movement to leverage the slightest advantage, and gritty determination. They were prevailing in the playoffs in spite of the fact that their aging Big Three never had a game where they all performed at peak efficiency. The compensation was supposed to be in the apparent depth that looked so compelling when assembled by Ainge. In the end this proved to be an illusion. As this Rhyme of the Ancient Cagers played out, the bone-weary stars lost a half-step, an inch or two off their lift, a few degrees of arch off their shots, and ultimately the game, and the championship.
In game seven the Laker role players finally lived up to their name. Their bench contributed energy, points, and maintained the pressure; while the Celtic bench was an over-matched Big Baby and, well, not really anybody else. Nate ran around without making any big mistakes, or any real contribution. Scal made a cameo appearance for a few seconds. Tony Allen played five minutes without a single blip on the stat line other than a single personal file—and an execrable -9 plus/minus. No it was up to the iron men, and with the meaningful rotation reduced to six by Perkins’ absence, they faded down the stretch. Game, but ultimately defeated by fatigue as much as the Purple Meanies.
The aftermath was as sad as it was predictable. The stupor seemed to be equal parts exhaustion and the anguish of loss. Doc seemed relieved to be exiting to his family and the relative (now that’s punny) buoyancy of watching his children. The aging vets felt that one-last-chance slipping through their numbed fingers. With suddenly old eyes, the youngsters saw maybe-never-again blowing away like smoke in a wind. Less predictable, but no less telling, was Sheed waiting plaintively outside the referee’s locker room to offer an olive branch in conciliation as he made his, perhaps final, exit. (Note: After all, in 2003, there were 86 days of below-freezing weather in Hell, Michigan; in Hell, Norway the normal temperature from Dec through Feb is below freezing—I’m just saying.)
The developments of the past week make, I think, another run with the current Celtics a very remote possibility. Perkins will likely not be back to full strength for at least a year. Sheed seems inclined to retire. This leaves Boston with exactly four rotation players under contract, and Pierce has an option to void his final (coming) year. The only other players, under team-option, are late season pickups Oliver Lafayette and Tony Gaffney, NBDL pickups unlikely to lead a dramatic turnaround. This team is already disassembled and there seems less and less rationale for Danny Ainge to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.
In fact Perkins’ major injury and Sheed’s potential retirement seem to provide the perfect impetus for the beginning of a major makeover. If this is the route then the pieces going forward are Rondo and, well, perhaps nothing else makes long term sense. Perkins may be back, but we may not know just how far until late or even after next season. In the interim he will have minimal value and if we are rebuilding then we can afford to wait. In fact his absence and the ensuing weakness could even be looked at as leverage for improved draft position (think the Admiral’s lost season leading up to the drafting of Duncan by S.A.) As for Pierce and Garnett, they are integral pieces if next year is another run, otherwise, probably not so much.
As excellent, although perhaps no longer All-Star, and experienced leaders at small and power forward, these remaining members of the Big Three may have substantial value to solidify teams trying to woo the megastar free agents and quick-start a rebuild or get over the final hump. If Danny is to go fully into reconstruction this summer, he might start with deals for these two battle-tested and slightly worn stars. Rebuilding will entail accruing young assets and draft picks with the idea of returning to relevance in 2011-2012 or the next year. So the question becomes what teams might covet what Pierce or Garnett can bring and what will those GM’s have to offer.
In gathering material for the analysis below I have concentrated on teams pushing to get deep into the playoffs (Orlando and Miami) and/or cleaning house to woo big-name free agents (Miami, New York, New Jersey, LA Clippers, and Sacramento). First I have listed our players under contract and, if trade possibilities, their “matching” basement value. Obviously if they go to a team with salary cap room the match is not critical but in Orlando’s case the Cap rules will be in effect. I have included Rasheed’s value since he might reconsider retirement if sent into another title chase. For each of the potential trade partners I have included their current draft picks (round-pick) as well as players they might be willing/eager to include and that we might not resist taking. Probably the most outrageous name you will note is Eddie Curry but might not we be swayed by the single year remaining and maybe 2012 and 2014 number one picks?
Rondo 9.09
Perkins 4.14
Rasheed Wallace 6.32 /1.25=5.056
Pierce 21.514 /1.25=17.21 perhaps a s&t at 15/yr for 3 yrs
Garnett 18.832 /1.25=15.07
Davis 3 /1.25=2.4
Orlando
Gortat 6.322
B. Bass 4
Reddick ~3.9 (s&t)
Ryan Anderson 1.409
SUM=15.631
Miami
1-18,2-11,12,18
Beasley 4.962
Daequan Cook 2.17
Knicks
2-8,9
Curry 11.277 (last yr)
David Lee ~7 (s&t)
Bill Walker .854
Actual cost 7.55
Nets
1-3,27 2-1
Yi 4.05
Terrence Williams 2.214
LA Clippers
1-8, 2-24
DeAndre Jordan .854
Travis Outlaw ~3.6 (s&t)
Steve Blake ~3.5 (s&t)
Kings
1-5, 2-3
Jason Thompson 2.178
Francisco Garcia 5.5
Donte Greene .931
The first team mentioned, Orlando, represents the only “reload” option in my opinion. Would the Magic swap most of their backups for that “final” piece at power forward? Bass and Ryan Anderson saw relatively little action, Gortat is an expensive and underutilized backup for Superman, and Reddick is a restricted free agent that would require a sign and trade. This allows Orlando to return Lewis to small forward as his primary position with only part of his minutes coming backing up Garnett. Garnett could spell Howard at Center for the few minutes he rests each game. From the Magic perspective they get a quality starter for reserves for which they would seem to have replacements.
For the Celtics Gortat replaces the injured/rehabbing Perkins and Reddick moves in at shooting guard. Bass provides the kind of high energy rebounding off the bench that they sorely missed this year and Anderson gives them the big that can stretch the floor and open it up for their drivers. Big Baby and the trio coming in man the big-man positions in the front court. This might be the rare trade that improves both teams.
Miami would have some interesting options. If they could trade the contracts of Beasley and Cook and buyout/waive James Jones they might drop their committed salary to around $20M plus whatever came in return. That would leave them in good shape to pick up a premier free agent. With the reported salary cap of ~$56M, acquiring Garnett would leave them another $25M with which to shop; a Pierce acquisition using a sign and trade of say $15M per for three years would leave them nearly $29M in their war chest. Using that for a max/near-max deal for Bosh, LeBron, or Joe Johnson still leaves them with serious money for yet another free agent, albeit a 2nd tier one. In fact if they could turn Beasley and Cook into a sign & trade for Ray Allen they might have enough for two near-max additions as well. In the wink-wink-nudge-nudge world of professional athletes playing billiards together or agents making furtive phone calls, how valuable would it be to the master of waxed hair to have Wade ready to re-up and Bosh and Joe “commit” to come onboard if Garnett is already in hand? How about #18, the 11th and 12th in round two and a 2012 #1? Two firsts, two seconds, and two unwanted salary dumps for that kind of leverage sounds like a shoo-in to me, maybe I’m setting the price too low!
A similar kind of logic works in the New York case but the poison pill in more onerous and the draft picks further away. Curry is whole lot of money for a really pitiful player but he would be a large body in the middle while Perkins recuperates, and it is only one year. David Lee would be a nice consolation prize and you can throw in Bill Walker if you’re a fan. It only costs NY $7.55 in lost flexibility, leaving them nearly $30M with which to sign LeBron and another expensive sidekick. For the Celtics the return would have to be future draft picks since the Knicks have only two early second rounders left for this year. So say the 8th and 9th in this year’s second and the NY firsts in 2012 and 2014. I guess it depends on just how successful you think the LeBron marriage will be with new servants. Maybe the biggest drawback is that both those picks will come after one would hope the rebuilding window is mostly completed. On the other hand this is exactly the kind of long-sighted vision that allowed Red to fleece other franchises for so long.
New Jersey is a real wildcard in these ruminations. No one knows what the Russian Mark Cuban will do, or just how eager he will be to make a splash. If he is impatient and wants to get it all done this year then he might pay a premium to get some leverage to draw the big names to the Jersey swamplands (how long before the escape to Brooklyn?) They seem eager to shed Yi and have some nice picks this year. Would they be willing to give up a promising rookie, the 27th, and the first pick in the second, along with a future pick to jump start the process? Would adding Garnett lure LeBron? Would adding Pierce lure Bosh. Either combination would fit nicely with their young stars at point and center and Courtney Lee at SG. A blend of experience and youth—could it really be that easy? For the Celtics it is all about two years from now. Making competitors stronger now is the price for gathering the chips to return to the fray leaner, meaner, and on the rise.
The Los Angeles Clippers opportunity is all about Pierce. Their needs, his strengths and home, marketing, relevance in the shadow of the “other” team, and the recent fluctuations in their long-time penny-pinching owner. They’ve got lots of cap space but few trading chips. Picking up Outlaw and Blake as sign and trades along with youngster DeAndre Jordan seem the most promising. Using the $15M number for Pierce again, it would leave the Clips around $9M to fill out a team with starters Kamen C, Griffith PF, Pierce SF, Gordon SG, and Davis PG. Impressive starting lineup but of course Sterling might sign another seven minimum rookies and expect his high-priced veterans to play 48 every game. What would Donald give up to market the home-town hero and his new high-dollar headliners against the World Champs in their backyard? That would be the real question since none of the players coming in return are much of a persuasive argument.
Finally the Sacramento Kings and I must admit I am totally at a loss to read what their Hawes/Nocioni for Delambert trade portends. Are they shedding salary or adding it? Do they think Landry and Casspi are the answers at the forward spots? Well under the salary cap, are they looking for a big free agent addition? Other than the mercenary aspect, is there some reason they think the team as assembled is attractive to a premier player with all his options open? Once again the remaining Big Two each seem to fill a weakness in the Kings’ starting lineup. Would the addition of either make Sacramento more likely to successfully woo another star? Trading three backups for Pierce or Garnett would allow them to add another big name, maybe not the biggest, but none-the-less big. Would they pony up the draft picks to acquire that leverage. The only real desirable I listed is Jason Thompson so the draft picks would have to be alluring.
So there you have it, my best available options for Danny’s maneuvering before the draft—assuming he concurs with my assessment that it makes more sense to continue the deconstruction rather than try to cobble the crumbling blocks back together for one last lurch down the runway. I must admit I thought long and hard about including the Timberwolves in these musings. They have a plethora of pieces and picks and seem motivated to make moves. I just couldn’t bring myself to posit moving Garnett back to Minny after a three year rental or relegate Pierce to serve out his twilight years in the frozen Northlands. I also couldn’t imagine a scenario where the population around the 10-thousand lakes wouldn’t march on the Wolves headquarters with torches in hand if the management were (so prudent as) to peddle Rubio’s rights before he came out and pledged to stay in Spain forever before buying snowshoes and mukluks.
Topic: In this 6 days before the draft (Read 1456 times)