Academic analysis of referee bias

[kevbo]

I've mentioned this in replies to other threads, but I figured I'd post this separately for people. While I find the sudden fixation on officiating due to the last game (and a bevy of other high profile incidents year-in-year out), so often the analysis of supposed referee bias and "playoff-extending conspiracies" is compromised by fan allegiance and emotion. And most frankly, severely wanting methodology to support any claims.

For those like myself who prefer a more rigorous and objective look at this contentious subject, I recommend this paper by economists (I believe) John Price, Marc Remer, and Daniel Stone, published in December 2009: "Sub-Perfect Game: Profitable Biases of NBA Referees"

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1377964 is the link, which hopefully works for you all (I get access through my University).

The conclusions are interesting. I haven't read it closely enough to say whether I think their methods hold up or not, (sorry, my grad school brain has been occupied by other research!) but its definitely worth a perusal. Personally, as much as I enjoy the speculation of blogs and message boards, I prefer to see more rigorous research of this nature (even that which refutes the above paper's claims) to shed light on this topic. That way, we fans can get back to enjoying the game itself, not speculating about the people managing the game.

[dlpin]

This is a fantastic piece for the stats lovers(in the sense of statistical methodology, not descriptive stats) around here.

The only shortcoming seems to be the lack of certain data, but since then people have looked at the more detailed data kept by the league and reached a similar conclusion.

What is particularly noteworthy in this case is how viciously the NBA went after Price and his grad student when they published their previous article on racial biases.

[droopdog7]

For those of us that don't feel like reading the article, what is the gist of the findings?  Bias or no bias?

[dlpin]

For those of us that don't feel like reading the article, what is the gist of the findings?  Bias or no bias?

At least read the abstract, man:
" we find that referees make calls that favor home teams, teams losing during games, and teams losing in playoff series. All three biases are likely to increase league revenues."

[kevbo]

For those of us that don't feel like reading the article, what is the gist of the findings?  Bias or no bias?

At least read the abstract, man:
" we find that referees make calls that favor home teams, teams losing during games, and teams losing in playoff series. All three biases are likely to increase league revenues."

haha, yes! start with the abstract, then wade further if you want. glad you are into it dlpin, i figured some folks might be. with all the bold unsubstantiated claims we are want to make on this topic, i crave some reputable, objective analysis and figured others might too. Price's last study was both interesting and impressive; this one looks pretty solid from quick overview of the methodology. But when I have a chance this summer I want to give it a better going over...

[droopdog7]

For those of us that don't feel like reading the article, what is the gist of the findings?  Bias or no bias?

At least read the abstract, man:
" we find that referees make calls that favor home teams, teams losing during games, and teams losing in playoff series. All three biases are likely to increase league revenues."

Not in the mood to read a scientific article or abstract.  But thanks for the summary. 

[wiley]

For those of us that don't feel like reading the article, what is the gist of the findings?  Bias or no bias?

At least read the abstract, man:
" we find that referees make calls that favor home teams, teams losing during games, and teams losing in playoff series. All three biases are likely to increase league revenues."

These three areas of ref whistle favoritism are plain to see on a nearly constant basis.  And it burns me up, regular season, playoffs, whatever......It's a farce. 

I hope Stern's NBA goes down the tubes so another can be reborn....