PHI/BOS Trade IDEA/Cap Analysis

[tunafish]

It seems that most people on this board would do a Ray Allen+Filler/Picks for Dalembert/Iguodala in a heartbeat, so I'm going to show another option which is in my opinion more realistic a proposal AND isn't quite as bad an idea as it might seem at first glance.

BOS/PHI Trade

BOS trades: Ray+Sheed+1st rd pick
PHI trades: Iguodala+Brand

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yha7md3

Our first realistic shot of having the cap space to sign a free agent would be 2012/13 when KG's contract is off the books. Lets say we have acquired Iguodala through the Dalembert trade idea. His pay for the 2012/13 season is 15 million. Lets say after this season Pierce signs a 45 million 3 year extension or something in that ballpark, his salary for 12/13 would be around 15 million. Lets say we sign perk to a reasonable extension with his pay in 12/13 being somewhere in the 7-12 million dollar range. Rondo's pay for 12/13 is 11 million dollars. Our total salary with just these 4 players on our roster would be roughly 50 million. Estimating the cap in 12/13 to be roughly 60 million would leave us with only 10 million in cap space. Assuming we extend at least 2 of Eddie/TA/Daniels/Bill Walker/Big Baby then we will most definitely be over the cap the year KG is off the books. Meaning there is a good chance that we will NOT be signing any free agents for greater than the MLE through 12/13. This leads me to my main point...

Since we won't have any cap space to sign free agents before the 12/13 season ANYWAY then it doesn't hurt us THAT much to take on Brand's contract, which would be up after the 12/13 season. Not to mention, KG seems to be on his last leg, so it might even be beneficial to have Brand. Dumping sheed's contract on them also softens the blow a little.

I think this trade would help us THIS YEAR (andre > ray, brand > sheed) and BEYOND (Rondo/Iguodala/Perk- next big 3 anyone??).

P.S. - I know I made a lot of assumptions but they all seemed reasonable to me

Thoughts?

[PosImpos]

I doubt the cap will be as high as you think it will be in 12/13.  In fact, there may be a hard cap by then considering the upcoming CBA discussions.

I also doubt that Danny is going to give up on Sheed this quickly, mainly because it makes him look bad since he and the rest of the team went to all the trouble to lure him here in the first place.

[tunafish]

I doubt the cap will be as high as you think it will be in 12/13.  In fact, there may be a hard cap by then considering the upcoming CBA discussions.

I also doubt that Danny is going to give up on Sheed this quickly, mainly because it makes him look bad since he and the rest of the team went to all the trouble to lure him here in the first place.

Then swap out sheed for scal or scal/baby (both work), either way the main idea of the trade stays the same.

[VtCeltics]

Hey Tunafish,

I will give you a tommy point for that suggestion.  I think Brand could actually make a comeback.  He was a very good player a couple of years ago, and I believe he is still younger than KG, Pierce, and Allen.

If Brand returned to all-star form, we could really have something!

[Roy Hobbs]

It seems that most people on this board would do a Ray Allen+Filler/Picks for Dalembert/Iguodala in a heartbeat, so I'm going to show another option which is in my opinion more realistic a proposal AND isn't quite as bad an idea as it might seem at first glance.

BOS/PHI Trade

BOS trades: Ray+Sheed+1st rd pick
PHI trades: Iguodala+Brand

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yha7md3

Our first realistic shot of having the cap space to sign a free agent would be 2012/13 when KG's contract is off the books. Lets say we have acquired Iguodala through the Dalembert trade idea. His pay for the 2012/13 season is 15 million. Lets say after this season Pierce signs a 45 million 3 year extension or something in that ballpark, his salary for 12/13 would be around 15 million. Lets say we sign perk to a reasonable extension with his pay in 12/13 being somewhere in the 7-12 million dollar range. Rondo's pay for 12/13 is 11 million dollars. Our total salary with just these 4 players on our roster would be roughly 50 million. Estimating the cap in 12/13 to be roughly 60 million would leave us with only 10 million in cap space. Assuming we extend at least 2 of Eddie/TA/Daniels/Bill Walker/Big Baby then we will most definitely be over the cap the year KG is off the books. Meaning there is a good chance that we will NOT be signing any free agents for greater than the MLE through 12/13. This leads me to my main point...

Since we won't have any cap space to sign free agents before the 12/13 season ANYWAY then it doesn't hurt us THAT much to take on Brand's contract, which would be up after the 12/13 season. Not to mention, KG seems to be on his last leg, so it might even be beneficial to have Brand. Dumping sheed's contract on them also softens the blow a little.

I think this trade would help us THIS YEAR (andre > ray, brand > sheed) and BEYOND (Rondo/Iguodala/Perk- next big 3 anyone??).

P.S. - I know I made a lot of assumptions but they all seemed reasonable to me

Thoughts?

One thing you're overlooking is the possible effect of a new CBA, with some sort of a hard cap.  In such a system, having so much money committed in the future would be financial suicide.  Similarly, even if the current luxury tax system stays in effect, it's a lot to ask of Wyc to pay huge tax bills to fill out the roster for what will eventually turn into a pretty mediocre team.

[tunafish]

It seems that most people on this board would do a Ray Allen+Filler/Picks for Dalembert/Iguodala in a heartbeat, so I'm going to show another option which is in my opinion more realistic a proposal AND isn't quite as bad an idea as it might seem at first glance.

BOS/PHI Trade

BOS trades: Ray+Sheed+1st rd pick
PHI trades: Iguodala+Brand

http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=yha7md3

Our first realistic shot of having the cap space to sign a free agent would be 2012/13 when KG's contract is off the books. Lets say we have acquired Iguodala through the Dalembert trade idea. His pay for the 2012/13 season is 15 million. Lets say after this season Pierce signs a 45 million 3 year extension or something in that ballpark, his salary for 12/13 would be around 15 million. Lets say we sign perk to a reasonable extension with his pay in 12/13 being somewhere in the 7-12 million dollar range. Rondo's pay for 12/13 is 11 million dollars. Our total salary with just these 4 players on our roster would be roughly 50 million. Estimating the cap in 12/13 to be roughly 60 million would leave us with only 10 million in cap space. Assuming we extend at least 2 of Eddie/TA/Daniels/Bill Walker/Big Baby then we will most definitely be over the cap the year KG is off the books. Meaning there is a good chance that we will NOT be signing any free agents for greater than the MLE through 12/13. This leads me to my main point...

Since we won't have any cap space to sign free agents before the 12/13 season ANYWAY then it doesn't hurt us THAT much to take on Brand's contract, which would be up after the 12/13 season. Not to mention, KG seems to be on his last leg, so it might even be beneficial to have Brand. Dumping sheed's contract on them also softens the blow a little.

I think this trade would help us THIS YEAR (andre > ray, brand > sheed) and BEYOND (Rondo/Iguodala/Perk- next big 3 anyone??).

P.S. - I know I made a lot of assumptions but they all seemed reasonable to me

Thoughts?

One thing you're overlooking is the possible effect of a new CBA, with some sort of a hard cap.  In such a system, having so much money committed in the future would be financial suicide.  Similarly, even if the current luxury tax system stays in effect, it's a lot to ask of Wyc to pay huge tax bills to fill out the roster for what will eventually turn into a pretty mediocre team.

Yeah. The one draw back would be the uncertainty surrounding the CBA. However, I bet in the end, nothing changes. There ARE other leagues out there (Europe etc.) and if Stern doesn't back down from the current CBA proposal I can GUARANTEE that EVERY star player will move overseas because their salaries on a 60 mil hard cap with a max contract of 10(?) mil per would not be DRASTICALLY more than what they could fetch overseas. I think the players have all the leverage here, even if most of them live paycheck to paycheck, if the big names leave the league, Stern has no product. Not to mention as a fan I think the proposal is whacked out... it's not the players' fault that some of them (for example, Brand) are overpaid.

I don't think a Rondo/Iguodala/Perk core with an aging KG/Brand(who has a decent chance to bounce back in the right setting, imo)/Pierce (with a MLE guy in the mold of raja bell thrown in) would be anywhere near mediocre. These guys will only continue to get better over the next few years. Plus, if Glen starts taking things more seriously (i think he will) I think he could be a legit starter in this league.