Time for a change?

[keevsnick]

So a couple thoughts on the proposed deal:

1) I don't buy at all that the Bucks would be looking to keep Jaylen. I get they don't have their picks moving forward, but they were below .500 last year even when Giannis actually played. They aren't going to magically be better subbing in a worse player in the Giannis minutes, and without their picks they have no real way of improving. Meanwhile Jaylen's trade value will never be higher than it is right now coming off a healthy all-NBA season. They have to trade him.

I do think MIL will be better next year with Jaylen than they were last year with Giannis. That MIL team underachieved last year even when Giannis was fit and available. They should have been a 45 win team.

MIL will also get extra contributions from Bobby Portis who will see extra minutes with Giannis gone. He is their 3rd/4th best player. Kuzma will also play better with Jaylen than he did with Giannis because Giannis' inability to shoot jump-shots over-exposed Kuzma's mediocre jumper. He will be less exposed with Jaylen. So their forward rotation will be more effective with the lesser player Jaylen.

Even if you think they underachieved last year I just don't see keeping Jaylen making any sense. The team has 1 other guy (Turner) who is a league average starter at their position. Your ceiling is .500 for a year or two until Jaylen demands a trade. If Giannis with his 13 years of loyalty wasn't willing to stick around, I doubt Jaylen is going to want to be there long term. Better to trade him now when he has 3 years then when he has 1 or 2 left on his deal.

This reminds me of the Holiday/Lillard trade. Portland traded a better player (Lillard) for a worse but still very valuable one (Holiday) + extra assets (draft picks) then flipped Holiday again for more assets. That's what The Bucks will do, floating "We MIGHT keep Brown" is just posturing to avoid losing leverage in the future Brown trade talks. He'll get flipped to Portland, Atlanta, San Antonio or maybe even Miami.

[Goldstar88]

League sources say the Bucks want to remain competitive next season. They don?t outright own any of their firsts until 2031, and even if they did, the flattened draft odds don?t incentivize teams to bottom out. And the best player on the table is, by far, Jaylen Brown.
Yahoo! Sports

[Who]

On the lesser player Jaylen,

I don't think Giannis could have gotten last year's Celtics team to 56 wins. Even if he was healthy enough to play the same number of games as Jaylen did (which Giannis has only done 1 time in the last 7 years).

I think Jaylen is undervalued as a team player. And I think the importance of his shooting versus the non-shooting of Giannis is undervalued as well.