2025 CelticsBlog Fantasy Draft: '05-'25 Edition

[Who]

I always like this stat / trivia for Nash

During a nine-year stretch between 2001-02 and 2009-10, Nash's teams either led or finished second in offensive rating

Mavericks Era (2001-2004):
Nash's Mavericks teams were consistently among the league's best offensively. In 2002, 2003, and 2004, his Mavericks led the league in offensive rating.

Suns Era (2004-2010):
Nash's arrival in Phoenix ushered in an era of high-octane, fast-paced offense. His Suns teams finished first in offensive rating in 2005, 2007, and 2010, and second in 2006, 2008, and 2009.

That is an incredible 9 year run. Across two different franchises. Through all those roster changes Mark Cuban was making the Mavs in those early years. With Amare in 2005. Without Amare in 2006. Amare again. Then a Shaq renaissance season in 2009 where the ran the offense more through the low post and less from Nash's PnR. Consistently elite offense with differing personnel.

Suns were 21st in offensive rating WITH D'Antoni. Nash joins them the next year and theyre IMMEDIATELY No.1. He turned a 29-53 team to 62-20 in one season.

A 101.4 offensive efficieny in that 29 win season after they trade Marbury midseason to NYK. To a 114.5 offensive rating and 62 wins the following season.

Amare, Marion, and Joe Johnson all on that 29 win team. Marion and JJ healthy. Amare only played 55 games (22-33 with Amare, 7-20 without Amare - a 33 win pace with Amare).

[snively]

OK, I think I have a handle on my team

I'm curious to see what season you pick for Kobe.  His general reputation with me is that he's hyper-focused on winning (with a few exceptions of him pouting), but that he generally hasn't trusted his teammates.  That's led to him taking some very inefficient shots.

The counter to that is, Kobe has much better teammates here.  Because he *does* care about winning, he's going to defer to an open Billups over taking a contested shot himself.  I can buy into that argument to a large degree, but not 100%.  In an ideal world he gets his eFG% up to around .520, but could he ever truly go beyond that?  And, efficiency is what matters in this era.

I love the defense of the starting guards / wing.  Chauncey, Kobe, and Butler will thrive on slowing down opposing guards and wings.  Offensively, I would have loved to see a better shooter than Butler, but I think he's got some seasons where he shot from outside pretty well.

My thoughts on your front court are contingent on what season you take for Horford.  He's always been able to hit from mid-range, but ideally you'd have a member of the front court who could hit threes.  Boston Horford adds that, while also probably being the best passing version of him.  Really good defensive pairing here.  You don't want to see Yao brought out to the perimeter, so mitigate against that.

The bench has really high-level players in Pau, Granger, Deron and Gordon.  Again, seasons matter, because the overall efficiency of some of those guys wasn't as high as truly elite options for some of their career.

And, Zion is an X-factor.  Is 2024 the only season he has finished healthy?  I guess you'll have to "settle" for 23 / 6 / 5 / .573 eFG%.  That's a nice luxury.

I like Zion's sophomore campaign.  Played almost 90% of that season. 

That unstoppable downhill scoring struck me probably too late as very valuable in this setting. Like Shaq or Yao, an unsolvable problem for his match up.

Striking on him so late I couldn't really tailor the 2nd unit to him,  but it was already my pace and space squad. Pau isn't ideal as his frontcourt mate,  but with the floor spacing from the other guys and with Pau's high post ability, I think Zion could beast with this squad.

My Kobe year will probably be his MVP year.  That plus Jimmy's ridiculous 22/23 will give me some of their best shooting %s.

Definitely a Boston year for Al. That 3 is essential to my team. Also the lower usage.

[Moranis]

But we have enough evidence now to say Curry is a bad defender especially in a league that has filled with great players.  Curry does ok in a normal league, but he is small and weak and we've seen time and time again teams pick on him. In much the way you want to call out injured Luka in the finals against Boston, teams did the exact same thing to Curry.

Are the PGs any better defensively in this fantasy league than in the Real NBA?

It feels like there are few high end defensive PGs in this league. Quite a few above average defensive PGs, ditto for middle of the pack defenders and a number of bad defensive PGs. But few high end defensive PGs.

I don't know who to use as the PG for Cleveland. Luka or LeBron? I'll go with Donovan Mitchell for the reserve PG.

Luka Doncic
Chris Paul
Steve Nash
Damian Lillard
Chauncey Billups
Steph Curry
SGA
Tony Parker
Kyle Lowry
Rajon Rondo

Donovan Mitchell
Fred VanVleet
Tyrese Haliburton
Derrick White
Deron Williams
Jalen Brunson
Jason Kidd
Andre Miller
Mike Conley
Russell Westbrook

Kyrie Irving
Jamal Murray
Derrick Rose
John Wall

Even the above average defensive PGs, most of them are not top level defenders.

I meant he does ok defensively in a normal league because every team isn't stacked with top level PG's.  You are absolutely correct this league, just like the NBA, doesnt have a ton of top level defending PG's. That is why I made the decision to draft Dyson Daniels as my backup PG. I wanted a big fast defender.  Curry's size just isnt an issue most of the time, but as we've seen in plenty of playoff series he can be targeted and neutralized.  It isnt just the Cavs either.  Smart just wasn't a good enough player to do it when Boston lost to Golden State.  If Boston had Holiday instead of Smart, I believe Boston would have won the 2022 title. Smart just couldnt put enough pressure on Curry to wear him down.

How many minutes will you be playing Dyson Daniels on Steph Curry, and what result are you expecting from that?

In games he's played against Daniels, Curry has averaged 24.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.5 steals, 42.3% 3PT%, and .582 eFG%.  And, we're talking about 35 and 36 year old Curry in these head to head matchups.

Meanwhile, Daniels has averaged 8.4 ppg.  He gets steals -- 1.8 spg -- but doesn't contain Curry in any way.  Again, that's old man Curry. 

Daniels is unplayable as a primary backup PG in this league.  He simply isn't a credible enough scorer.

EDIT:

The above stats are through basketball-reference's versus finder.  According to Land of Basketball, the disparity is even greater:  30.4 points vs. 6.8 points for Daniels.

why are you including his first 2 years when Daniels didn't even start?

[Jvalin]

The algorithm is a b#tch. If I wanna avoid the fatigue penalty, 2023 Jokic is capped at 28 mins.

[Roy H.]

Philadelphia 76ers:

PG: Rajon Rondo '11-'12       25 minutes
SG: James Harden '18-'19      28 minutes
SF: Andrei Kirilenko '05-'06;    28 minutes
PF: Anthony Davis '17-'18;        24 minutes
C: Amare Stoudemire '04-'05;    28 minutes 

PG Russell Westbrook '16-'17    20 minutes
SG Marcus Smart '21-'22         15 minutes
SF Peja Stojakovic  '04-'05      20 minutes
PF Kevin Love '13-'14             20 minutes
C Marcus Camby '06-'07        20 minutes

Deep Bench

PG John Wall '16-'17            8 minutes
PF Blake Griffin '13-'14        4 minutes

Tim, why so few minutes for Davis?  In general, your bench is playing almost as much as your bench.  Was this by design when you drafted?