What was Brad thinking?

[Kernewek]

JB and Middleton are very close, but Jaylen is five years younger.  Brown will keep refining his skills, while Middleton’s decline.

Yeah, I think if we offered Brown for Middleton straight up today Milwaukee would take that in a second. Brown would be an upgrade for them next season and only get better from there on. They are close they are both good players. But I see Brown as better.

everyone would trade Middleton for Brown because of their age, but Middleton functions much better as a #2 player because he is a much better distributor, 3 point shooter, and foul generator.  Those skills are most critical for a side kick playing next to a ball dominant player.  Middleton also doesn't function best in the same place on the floor as that ball dominant player like Brown does.   Middleton is better than Brown right now and I expect that to continue next season.  At some point Brown will be better though.

Middleton shoots a whole 1.2% better from three over the last two seasons on less attempts. 3.8% worse from 2PT range.

Brown generates more free throws per minute and per possession, but Middleton has a free throw rate advantage of 0.7%.

"Much better" is an extreme exaggeration. Bordering on a lie.

what does 2 point shooting have to do with what I said?  Middleton is a better 3 point shooter, distributor, and as you acknowledge has a better FTr (and he is a much better FT shooter - which yields a better TS%).  There is nothing that I said that was inaccurate.  Those are all skills that are more critical to the roles they play i.e. off the ball with a ball dominant player. 

Per 100 possessions, they have very similar stats, Brown shoots a bit more and has more total points, but Middleton scores slightly more points per shot (They make basically the same amount of 3's, Middleton makes more FT's, while Brown is much more prolific from 2).  Brown is a better rebounder, Middleton a significantly better passer.  Middleton gets slightly more steals and they are the same blocks per 100 possessions.  Brown takes a bit better care of the ball and they both foul at the same rate.

Statistically they are very close, but I think Middleton is better because his skills are more critical to the role they actually play on the floor.  If they were both #1 scorers, I'd prefer Brown, but neither of them are good enough to be #1 scorers and neither of them are that so that doesn't factor in for me.  As a #2 next to a ball dominant player, I think Middleton is better, and that isn't some crazy notion.

You initially said "much better", which is categorically untrue about foul generation and three point shooting. He is a marginally better three point shooter.

He is a worse foul generator Moranis. He generates less fouls. Generating the tiniest bit higher a ratio of free throws to field goals is not being better at foul generation, let alone "much better". Which is what you said.

the difference between Middleton and Brown shooting last year (and in their careers) is very similar to the difference between Brown and Smart last year. Which is a smaller gap than their FTr. 

Middleton shoots less, but does more per shot all while being a much better distributor.

KM is a better distributor, or at least he gets more assists.

Everything else offensively is pretty close, and JB is a better defender.

Yeah, I watch Middleton and I don't see a better passer. I just see a guy making more correct easy passes that turn into assists, something he grew into with experience.

Give Brown and Tatum another year or two and I could see both averaging 1.5-2 more assists per game simply by making the right easy pass more often.

I know what you mean, and I'm not trying to be needlessly divisive, but if we're arguing about semantics surely we should say that someone who makes more correct [decisions &] easy passes that turn into assists is surely a better passer than someone who does not do these things. 


Not everyone has to be passing at prime Rondo's level to be a 'better passer' - and I don't think anyone is insinuating that getting better at passing is impossible. But "Player does the right thing more often in this particular area = better at this particular area" is not very controversial.

[Roy H.]

Initially Moranis’ point was Giannis is far and away better than Tatum, that the third best among Bucks-Celtics is KM and the 5th best is JH.  If that’s your perspective obviously you think Milwaukee is the better team - even if you give the edge to Boston on the remaining starters and bench.

I'd rank the players a little differently.  Giannis is clearly better than Tatum.  Giannis is top 3, maybe #1, in the NBA.  Tatum is somewhere around 10-12.  That’s a meaningful gap and if a case is to made that Milwaukee is the top team in the East the argument begins and ends there.   To say with any measure of confidence that KM and JH are better than JB and MB is a reach - you can go either way but a more grounded assessment in my opinion is to say that KM and JB are pretty even for 3rd/4th and JH and MB are pretty even for 5th/6th with Rob breathing down both their necks.

Smart, Rob, Horford White, Grant, Gallo looks pretty solid to me as remaining starters and bench.  I think that does make a difference in Boston’s favor.  Bottom line is the teams are pretty close and I wouldn’t bet against either.

I think this starts to get at an important point that is being overlooked.  Yes, it's a completely valid exercise to rank players in terms of their skill level or value.  But, once you start ranking *teams*, it's not like you can necessarily say "Team A has the 1st, 3rd and 5th best players and a deeper bench, so they win".

Teams don't play like that.  Team defense, team offense, chemistry, coaching...  they all play a part.  Isn't there a legit argument that Brooklyn had the 1st and 3rd best players in our playoff series last year?  The Bucks had the 1st and 4th best, along with a championship pedigree.  But, that's not how team strength is determined.

For most of the season, the Celtics led the NBA in defense and scoring differential.  They obviously had great chemistry.  Boston was the only team in the NBA to hold opponents to under 50% from 2PT.  Boston also had the best 3PT defense in the league, allowing the lowest 3PT%.  Milwaukee relies upon the 3PT shot a lot, ranking 5th in the NBA in attempts.  It was strength against strength, and our strength was greater.

[Moranis]

Initially Moranis’ point was Giannis is far and away better than Tatum, that the third best among Bucks-Celtics is KM and the 5th best is JH.  If that’s your perspective obviously you think Milwaukee is the better team - even if you give the edge to Boston on the remaining starters and bench.

I'd rank the players a little differently.  Giannis is clearly better than Tatum.  Giannis is top 3, maybe #1, in the NBA.  Tatum is somewhere around 10-12.  That’s a meaningful gap and if a case is to made that Milwaukee is the top team in the East the argument begins and ends there.   To say with any measure of confidence that KM and JH are better than JB and MB is a reach - you can go either way but a more grounded assessment in my opinion is to say that KM and JB are pretty even for 3rd/4th and JH and MB are pretty even for 5th/6th with Rob breathing down both their necks.

Smart, Rob, Horford White, Grant, Gallo looks pretty solid to me as remaining starters and bench.  I think that does make a difference in Boston’s favor.  Bottom line is the teams are pretty close and I wouldn’t bet against either.

To be clear, I never said Middleton was significantly better than Brown, they are close.  I do think the gap between Holiday and either Brogdon or Smart is clear, but they are close enough that it isn't significant. 

Also, it isn't like Milwaukee has a terrible bench.  Lopez is very good.  Portis, Allen, Connaughton, Matthews, Carter, whatever they get from Ibaka, Hill, and Ingles or their 1st round pick Beauchamp.  They have a very strong supporting cast around their top 3 players.  They are older obviously so there can certainly be some deterioration and Lopez obviously missed a whole lot of last year, but was back for the playoffs so he is healthy now. 

The gap between Giannis and Tatum is significant.  Even just small increments at their levels, matter so much.  Giannis is the best player in the world.  He is the best defensive player in the world and a top 5 offensive player (arguably the best given totality, but if someone wanted to say Jokic, Curry, Durant, etc. I'm not going to nitpick).