Maybe the stats will point to my observation being wrong, but from what I've seen is they're playing much smarter ball. I've complained about this for years under Brad how they just seemed undisciplined and 3's were the first option.. Now they seem to be playing much better looking for higher % shots.
I was curious so I looked the stats up. This won't tell you what the FIRST shot they take each possession was, but it does tell you how many threes they attempted, made and what rate they made them. I also looked up that their 3FGA was as a % of their total FGA, to try to get a sense for how many 3s they were making as a % of their total shots. I also looked at the monthly splits for this season to see if anything had trended better over time.
Interestingly, while their overall average 3s taken has dropped by 1 to 12.8 this season, it's a bigger % of their total FGA. I could have looked up the # of 2s to give us a fuller picture but it's a manual process so I left it out for now. The data suggests there's really not a lot of difference in their overall 3s shot making profile, in fact the last couple of months we've actually shot worse from 3 than we had earlier in the season when we were mad at them and wanting the team blown up.
Year 3FG 3FGA/g 3FG% 3s as % of Overall FGA
2016-17 12.0 33.4 .359 39%
2017-18 11.5 30.4 .377 35%
2018-19 12.6 34.5 .365 38%
2019-20 12.6 34.5 .364 38%
2020-21 13.6 36.4 .374 41%
2021-22* 12.7 36.8 .344 42%
*
Oct-21 13.0 40.5 .321 42%
Nov-21 11.5 35.0 .328 40%
Dec-21 12.5 36.4 .342 42%
Jan-22 13.0 36.2 .359 43%
Feb-22 13.4 38.3 .351 43%
Mar-22 13.1 36.8 .357 42%So why the discrepancy between the eye test and the actual data? It could be recency bias...the last 2 games we shot 55% and 48% from 3, which has made us forget the games vs Detroit and Dallas where we shot 18% and 24%. More likely it's because we've been winning, because our defense has really forced teams to shoot poorly from the perimeter against us - in the last 2 months teams playing us have shot 31% from 3. Overall teams are shooting 42% against us so we're really making them work for their shots and they're not getting good quality shots.
Year Mth Count of G FG% 3FG% oFG% o3FG%
2021 10 6 0.431 0.321 0.441 0.364
11 15 0.437 0.328 0.431 0.322
12 15 0.453 0.342 0.450 0.358
2022 1 16 0.463 0.359 0.426 0.341
2 12 0.481 0.351 0.399 0.310
3 8 0.480 0.357 0.429 0.311
Grand Total 72 0.458 0.344 0.429 0.334
And something my eye test agrees with, as you alluded to, is the quality of the 3s the Cs are taking is a lot better - they swing the ball around with a purpose, rather then just aimlessly, and someone attacks a pick and roll or a closeout with purpose, attacking the rim to draw defenders before swinging it out for a better quality 3 than a pull up. Or if someone closes out, instead of just settling for a 3 someone like GWill or White or Smart will put the ball on the floor and drive to the basket and either get a high percentage rim shot or swing it to the opposite corner when they have drawn the help. It's those types of plays that we notice, even if the overall % of 3s we are taking hasn't changed that much.
At the risk of providing too much data, Smart is a good example - look at how his shot profile has changed over the year, and as a result so has his efficiency:
Split Value G FG FGA 3P 3PA 3P% 3s % of total AST/g TOV/g PPG
Smart October 5 12 47 8 34 0.235 72% 4.8 2.4 7.4
November 15 66 153 21 67 0.313 44% 5.9 1.7 12.4
December 13 55 134 14 52 0.269 39% 5.2 2.2 11.6
January 10 38 90 20 49 0.408 54% 5.5 2.3 11.5
February 10 42 91 18 51 0.353 56% 5.2 1.8 13.0
March 9 47 105 18 45 0.400 43% 7.4 2.2 14.6
Topic: Is anyone else pinching themselves because of how well the team is playing? (Read 4686 times)